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Post by jmg378s on Aug 27, 2020 7:51:11 GMT -6
I'm wondering if we need to see areas around or just east of Cameron for surge. Maybe over to Creole. I have a feeling surge was pretty high still.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 27, 2020 8:08:39 GMT -6
It could have been the forward speed of this thing that really proved to be the savior... too fast to do anything but wind damage...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 27, 2020 8:09:03 GMT -6
Hearing that the storm surge was not nearly what was expected. I wonder why that would be. Surge in Lake Charles may have been avoided because the eye came in a shade east and did not allow the water to build up. I agree... the surge most surely was more extreme further to the east. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 27, 2020 8:11:15 GMT -6
Folks need to not make the mistakes of the past by judging a storm by the first few hours post landfall. Lets wait for a day to pass and get eyes on the entire zone of impact...only then can we know for sure how bad the damage may (or may not) be. You'll remember in Katrina, almost everyone was saying, "we dodged the bullet".... then we all know what happened.
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 27, 2020 8:20:32 GMT -6
I think about all we know at this point is that surge was measured by a guage about 9ft at Calcasieu Pass in Cameron and I think the center of the eye may have passed a smidge to east of there even...just eyeballing.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 27, 2020 8:35:30 GMT -6
I think about all we know at this point is that surge was measured by a guage about 9ft at Calcasieu Pass in Cameron and I think the center of the eye may have passed a smidge to east of there even...just eyeballing. That's still very significant...about the same as Rita, IIRC. I would think there was some 10ft+ surge east of there. Luckily, peak onshore flow came in before high tide. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 27, 2020 8:43:59 GMT -6
I don’t want flooding rains, but I kinda wish this would come farther north. I could actually use a decent rain here. Amazing how fast it dried up.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 27, 2020 8:45:02 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 27, 2020 8:46:14 GMT -6
I think about all we know at this point is that surge was measured by a guage about 9ft at Calcasieu Pass in Cameron and I think the center of the eye may have passed a smidge to east of there even...just eyeballing. That's still very significant...about the same as Rita, IIRC. I would think there was some 10ft+ surge east of there. Luckily, peak onshore flow came in before high tide. According to NHC report Rita actually produced 15ft storm surge in Cameron per high water marks with landfall a bit west of there. I just have a hard time believing a high end Cat 4 with 25nmi eye can't push way more than 9ft of water in a surge prone area. We may never know but I would not be surprised if surge was closer to 20ft east of Cameron. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 27, 2020 9:17:06 GMT -6
I don’t want flooding rains, but I kinda wish this would come farther north. I could actually use a decent rain here. Amazing how fast it dried up. Don’t think you’ll need to wait long. Euro ensembles continue to be very wet as we head into September  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 27, 2020 9:27:19 GMT -6
I may have been thinking of the 9ft surge level in Lake Charles during Rita. But I agree, I'm sure there was higher surge than what's been reported so far.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 27, 2020 10:13:35 GMT -6
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 27, 2020 12:20:14 GMT -6
Any one know when the cool front is coming down to push Laura East?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 27, 2020 13:22:05 GMT -6
Man I'm so tired if this humidity!!! Like BTRN mentioned before, I can't remember the last time it's been this bad for this long.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 27, 2020 13:37:32 GMT -6
NHC nailed the hurricane track 4 days out, missed significantly on intensity.
Always interesting to look back on this stuff
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 27, 2020 14:05:19 GMT -6
Here's a before and after GOES-16 blue/veggie channels showing possibly where surge inundation reached. I noted the approximate eyewall location in red during landfall and my best guess at where max surge may have occurred.   |
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Post by yypc on Aug 27, 2020 17:29:29 GMT -6
Man I'm so tired if this humidity!!! Like BTRN mentioned before, I can't remember the last time it's been this bad for this long. I say the same thing every year lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 27, 2020 20:39:37 GMT -6
PDS tornado warning near Jonesboro
“At 929 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Crowleys Ridge State Park, moving northwest at 55 mph.
This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!”
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 27, 2020 20:50:11 GMT -6
PDS tornado warning near Jonesboro “At 929 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Crowleys Ridge State Park, moving northwest at 55 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!” I just saw that. They’ve had quite a few tornado warnings down that way this evening. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 27, 2020 22:50:38 GMT -6
00z GFS showing a major PV intrusion for early September. Widespread morning lows 30s/40s week of labor day.
It's been hinting at a longwave pattern shift, but this is the strongest signal I've seen
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 28, 2020 10:08:31 GMT -6
Little tropical shower here
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 28, 2020 10:35:35 GMT -6
stayed just to my south. Dry here.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 28, 2020 11:20:19 GMT -6
Tropical shower commencing here
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Aug 28, 2020 11:24:01 GMT -6
Watching Nashville closely for my mother. They do not need another tornado...
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Post by REB on Aug 28, 2020 13:06:16 GMT -6
We’re getting a nice little shower at the moment.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 28, 2020 20:12:15 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 28, 2020 20:26:52 GMT -6
Gfs has been pretty consistent with that cool air. But, I expect some moderation as we get closer. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 29, 2020 10:33:33 GMT -6
Raining. Cooler air blowing in.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Aug 29, 2020 11:33:16 GMT -6
Is that line of precip out by Columbia/Jeff City going to make it into the Metro?
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Post by jeepers on Aug 29, 2020 13:48:45 GMT -6
Well, that tells me I’m hacking my basil crop this week. Nice map, even if it’s just a ballpark thing. Any sign that the heat and humidity are getting ready to think about a retreat is a gift.
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