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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 12, 2020 20:01:34 GMT -6
I'm not sure Sally is going to have time to organize and deepen into a strong hurricane, but definitely potential for a lower end 'cane and possibly significant if it can wrap up quickly as it clears the FL peninsula.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 12, 2020 20:11:54 GMT -6
Smoke this evening sure was thick
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Sept 12, 2020 20:16:08 GMT -6
Is Sally going to affect us or will it be shunted east? We really could use a little rain, especially along the rivers. The Gasconade is getting pretty thin in a lot of places. I had a couple issues with shallow water a couple weeks ago when I was out. Would hate to put a hole in a new boat.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 12, 2020 20:51:04 GMT -6
00z nam is a low end Category 2 headed towards New Orleans.
This might be a good case study for comparing impact by intensity. A Cat 4 hit western Louisiana at a high rate of speed. I wouldn’t be surprised if a Cat 2 hit New Orleans and was more impactful (especially considering the potential of emerging as a pandemic hotspot again).
I’ll still go low end Cat 3 until the HWRF bails
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 12, 2020 23:44:24 GMT -6
320-350 wind is downslope in that area- but haven’t checked the maps That's one thing I don't have a good understanding of, is the localized orographic effects there. We measure the "peaks" in hundreds of feet around here, lol. Colorado DOT was one our biggest customers- 20 years forecast for them |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 13, 2020 4:19:50 GMT -6
Now forecast to get up to 100 mph ...... New Orleans under a hurricane warning
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 13, 2020 8:44:26 GMT -6
Is Sally going to affect us or will it be shunted east? We really could use a little rain, especially along the rivers. The Gasconade is getting pretty thin in a lot of places. I had a couple issues with shallow water a couple weeks ago when I was out. Would hate to put a hole in a new boat. It appears like Sally's impact in our area will be minimal. Models do show moisture getting flung up to about I-44 with some lighter showery activity, but the core should remain well to our south. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 13, 2020 9:05:53 GMT -6
It looks like Sally has developed a tight low-level circulation this morning west of Tampa and is trying to form an eye...but the deep convection is mostly displaced to the E/SE as of now. It appears to be moving swiftly to the NW currently aimed towards Pensacola/Mobile...although a turn further to the west is forecast to occur with time as a ridge builds in over the top. If that turn doesn't happen soon, it won't have much time over open water to get it's act together. But if it can parallel the coast towards the delta region like some models show, it could become strong and pose a serious threat of surge into NOLA and Gulfport/Biloxi.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 13, 2020 11:42:31 GMT -6
We found the bat that has been in our attic crawling in the basement. We got it outside and after yelling at the indignation of being moved in a bucket it flew off.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 13, 2020 12:15:51 GMT -6
We found the bat that has been in our attic crawling in the basement. We got it outside and after yelling at the indignation of being moved in a bucket it flew off. Wow! Glad you got it outside. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 14, 2020 4:57:07 GMT -6
Looks like Sally may finally be starting to intensify as a ring of convection has rapidly formed up around the center...which was on the western edge of the CDO... but now appears to be right in the middle. There is also an extensive cluster of storms well east of the center.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 14, 2020 5:43:28 GMT -6
Looks like Sally may finally be starting to intensify as a ring of convection has rapidly formed up around the center...which was on the western edge of the CDO... but now appears to be right in the middle. There is also an extensive cluster of storms well east of the center. Yeah, it looks substantially better organized than it did yesterday...solid CDO/deep convection and decent looking outflow channel. Not a lot of room left for intensification...but even a CAT1 that slows down on approach will pile up water and rainfall very efficiently in that prone region. Models still aren't sure whether it will turn more parallel to the coastline or run NW into MS/AL...overall, it has seemed to favor a more N/right track with less westward drift. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2020 6:24:40 GMT -6
Looks like Sally may finally be starting to intensify as a ring of convection has rapidly formed up around the center...which was on the western edge of the CDO... but now appears to be right in the middle. There is also an extensive cluster of storms well east of the center. Yeah, it looks substantially better organized than it did yesterday...solid CDO/deep convection and decent looking outflow channel. Not a lot of room left for intensification...but even a CAT1 that slows down on approach will pile up water and rainfall very efficiently in that prone region. Models still aren't sure whether it will turn more parallel to the coastline or run NW into MS/AL...overall, it has seemed to favor a more N/right track with less westward drift. Yea, she's breathin' now for sure. New Orleans may dodge the bullet with the worst of the surge and flooding staying east. If it drift west that would be about the worst possible angle in terms of piling water into Lake Pontchartrain. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2020 7:19:49 GMT -6
Look at the gravity waves rippling out from the center of Sally on visible satellite. Like a bomb going off right now...good thing she will be running out of water.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 14, 2020 7:41:14 GMT -6
Holy smokes... the explosion of the outflow over Sally is nothing short of stunning on visible satellite this morning!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 14, 2020 8:37:42 GMT -6
The amount of lightning in that convective burst is impressive
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 14, 2020 9:00:26 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 14, 2020 9:03:57 GMT -6
Look at the gravity waves rippling out from the center of Sally on visible satellite. Like a bomb going off right now...good thing she will be running out of water. Holy smokes... the explosion of the outflow over Sally is nothing short of stunning on visible satellite this morning! Very cool stuff. I'm not sure I've seen anything quite like that before. Keep your eye on the central dense overcast at 11:30Z as the gravity wave explodes into life and continues even as of 15:00Z still. The wave propagates outward and acts more like a shock wave. You can see the density changes in the southwest quadrant with clearing skies on the leading edge followed by the outward push of the cirrus from the wave. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 14, 2020 9:07:55 GMT -6
That captures what I was talking about. Check out the expansion of that wave and the air density changes on its leading edge in the southwest quadrant. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 14, 2020 9:12:10 GMT -6
Vicky just appeared out there in extreme eastern Atlantic. There's just one more name left on list...Wilfred.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 14, 2020 9:12:50 GMT -6
We have 4 named storms now, Vicky was named, though she won't last long.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 14, 2020 9:24:14 GMT -6
KEVX radar suggesting center convection starting to make the wraparound.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 14, 2020 9:48:00 GMT -6
You guys are right, Sally looks really impressive on satellite this morning. To add on, if you haven't yet check out the "Sandwich" imagery (IR+Vis) option on the College of DuPage site. Really cool representation of the CDO and gravity waves.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 14, 2020 10:05:27 GMT -6
Entire Lower 48 just a little bit smokey according to Satellite. Wonder if all this smoke is going to effect later fall and Winter down the line?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 14, 2020 10:08:16 GMT -6
Most models show the bi-state area drier than a bone the next 2+ weeks. Last time I saw models that dry for that long is back in 2012. Thank goodness we've pasted the height of Summer or we'd be in for an extremely hot/drought time.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 14, 2020 10:10:29 GMT -6
Sally looks to be a hurricane now with recon data. Also looks to be rapidly intensifying as pressure is dropping quickly.
Edit: Never trust a system in the Gulf. Never.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 14, 2020 10:14:45 GMT -6
Took at a peep at our NLDN data... pretty fun to watch this view... interesting view at the end, too-- You can see one of the southern flank outflow bands spark off a bunch of lightning... almost has somewhat of an MCV look to it.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 14, 2020 10:15:08 GMT -6
Sally is exploding.... up to 85 MPH and getting stronger
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 14, 2020 10:17:28 GMT -6
IR almost looks like this thing is going to take a straight shot north, even east of Mobile...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2020 10:20:15 GMT -6
IR almost looks like this thing is going to take a straight shot north, even east of Mobile... Maybe just a wobble but it is noteworthy. |
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