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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 14, 2020 10:31:19 GMT -6
 This is new.... end of days? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 14, 2020 10:38:28 GMT -6
Up to 90 mph now, expected to be 105 at landfall now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2020 11:49:50 GMT -6
She was trying to form an eye but can't quite get convection to wrap around just yet. Still a very impressive storm. The convection is really intense and I don't think I've ever seen one blow up convectively like that. The shockwave was incredible.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 14, 2020 14:35:13 GMT -6
Pinhole eye trying to develop on radar now...it still remains fairly lopsided with the convection though with some dry air apparently wrapping in from the W/SW.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 14, 2020 14:44:47 GMT -6
Sally now a cat 2 with winds of 100 mph
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 14, 2020 14:56:48 GMT -6
From a rig south of Mobile
METAR: KVOA 142040Z AUTO 08086G100KT M1/4SM FG OVC002 25/24 A2940 RMK A01
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 14, 2020 16:31:01 GMT -6
Yea she sure took a big ol gulp of dry air. I’d bet on another big convective burst tonight but likely no true eye before landfall.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 14, 2020 17:34:31 GMT -6
18z HWRF briefly intensifies Sally into a CAT 3 before hitting Biloxi as a high end CAT 2.
Slow mover, so the surge should be pretty intense.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 14, 2020 18:20:22 GMT -6
Yea she sure took a big ol gulp of dry air. I’d bet on another big convective burst tonight but likely no true eye before landfall. Last few frames show a couple hot towers going up near the center... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 14, 2020 19:25:15 GMT -6
Sally seems to have a ton of lightning associated with it. Normally with tropical cyclones the lightning is confined to the eyewall but sally has had it all over
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 14, 2020 22:40:54 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 14, 2020 22:48:40 GMT -6
That amount of smoke would have to have some effect on local temperature and precipitation wouldn’t it?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 15, 2020 7:43:18 GMT -6
Between upwelling and nearby land interaction, Sally is struggling to gain any strength. The story with this one in the end will likely be flooding with the slow movement. How does surge react with such a slow mover?
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 15, 2020 8:22:10 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 15, 2020 8:25:59 GMT -6
Smooooooooooooke.
Smooooooooooooke
Smooooooooooooke.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 15, 2020 9:03:29 GMT -6
Sally is looking much more symmetrical this morning on satellite...although radar still shows an open eyewall structure on the W/SW flank. An uptick in intensity is possible, but rapid deepening is unlikely with increasing shear and upwelling. The main threat is definitely going to be surge and especially flooding rainfall with a crawling foward pace.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 15, 2020 10:11:39 GMT -6
Recon data doesn't even show sally as a hurricane.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 15, 2020 10:41:08 GMT -6
Recon data doesn't even show sally as a hurricane. It's definitely struggled...dry air and oblong structure has plagued it. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 15, 2020 10:45:04 GMT -6
Still a hurricane though...albeit a low-end one
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 15, 2020 15:00:55 GMT -6
Sally’s eye looks to be clearing out and getting better organized on radar. Might be a sign of strengthening
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 15, 2020 18:22:16 GMT -6
Looks like the slow approach is allowing Sally to finally ramp up. Doppler winds have increased significantly as the eye has continued to slowly organize. She could well be a cat 2 at landfall.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 15, 2020 19:51:03 GMT -6
800 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020
...8 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER...
NHC is beginning hourly position updates for Hurricane Sally for as
long as the eye remains well defined in NOAA Doppler radar images.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Sally's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h). This new intensity will be incorporated into the next full
advisory issued at 10 PM CDT. Some additional strengthening is
possible before Sally's center reaches the northern Gulf coast on
Wednesday.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 15, 2020 20:11:50 GMT -6
Pensacola is getting railed by that band!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 15, 2020 20:17:11 GMT -6
Pensacola is getting railed by that band! Yea, that’s gotta be exhausting to have even high end tropical storm winds and torrential rain for that long. Normally 8-10 hours and it moves on but she’s just crawling. Satellite and radar shows that she is definitely strengthening. Eye becoming established. |
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 15, 2020 20:25:40 GMT -6
Rig south of Mobile
METAR: KVOA 160220Z AUTO 23074G88KT M1/4SM FG BKN003 OVC011 25/25 A2913 RMK A01
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 15, 2020 20:51:48 GMT -6
Because you can often count on me to provide the some of the most irrelevant weather information at arbitrary times I'd like to point out that NHC characterization of "strong sheer" with Tropical Storm Vicky may be a slight understatement...  GFS analysis is showing about 67kts of sheer there! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 15, 2020 22:00:30 GMT -6
Gulf shores is going to get smacked by that northern eye wall all night long
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 15, 2020 23:07:16 GMT -6
She's back to 100 mph cat 2.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 15, 2020 23:31:07 GMT -6
~20mb drop since this afternoon. Insane that this thing hasn't burned itself out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 16, 2020 5:12:10 GMT -6
Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores this morning...Pensacola is currently getting the brunt of the eastern eyewall with radar total rainfall estimates of 30"+ there! Unreal.
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