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Post by amstilost on Sept 16, 2020 6:00:35 GMT -6
Prayers for SE Gulf coast. Have vacation planned within the week at Gulf Shores. Looks possible to be cancelled but that is nothing compared to what they are going through. Praying for forward speed to rapidly pick up and pull the rain shield away.
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Post by amstilost on Sept 16, 2020 6:50:40 GMT -6
Mobile, AL radar has not updated since 6:38. Hopefully just power related and not damaged.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 16, 2020 7:22:20 GMT -6
Odds are good that Wilfred and perhaps even Alpha will be making their appearance in the next 5 days.
The Euro shows Teddy making landfall as a hurricane...in Maine.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 16, 2020 7:45:51 GMT -6
Interesting how we went several years where hurricanes weakened as they approached the gulf coast, even Katrina did significantly. And now the last couple years we have them intensifying..usually quite a bit as they approach land.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 16, 2020 7:49:44 GMT -6
24.8" of rain being reported at NAS Pensacola
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 16, 2020 8:15:11 GMT -6
Odds are good that Wilfred and perhaps even Alpha will be making their appearance in the next 5 days. The Euro shows Teddy making landfall as a hurricane...in Maine. It’s looking increasingly likely Teddy will have an impact on the east coast. That storm is going to become an absolute monster in the coming days |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 16, 2020 9:00:48 GMT -6
Looks like Teddy pulls a Sandy...
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 16, 2020 9:48:29 GMT -6
Teddy definitely bears watching.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 16, 2020 9:49:11 GMT -6
Teddy could be a bear of a storm
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 16, 2020 10:19:28 GMT -6
I would almost certainly think the trough would kick Teddy out to sea. The odds of another Sandy situation (trough pulling the system to shore) seem quite small. If the Euro pulls that off for a second time I'll be impressed to say the least.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 16, 2020 10:39:23 GMT -6
Interesting how we went several years where hurricanes weakened as they approached the gulf coast, even Katrina did significantly. And now the last couple years we have them intensifying..usually quite a bit as they approach land. My hunch in years past was that was sort of a bad assumption based on most storms of the era. But there were counter examples too...like Andrew or Camille. Sort of a myth akin to those about tornadoes not crossing rivers or whatever (but maybe not quite that ridiculous). But yeah the last few years I think has really highlighted what we mostly already know, that if the totality of circumstances are favorable expect intensification right up to landfall. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 16, 2020 12:25:49 GMT -6
HRRR is showing smoke particles descending all the way down to the surface tomorrow morning in the St. Louis area. I wouldn't be surprised if we smell the wildfire smoke...again.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 16, 2020 12:37:58 GMT -6
No shortage of interesting weather...the Euro still likes a northeast landfall for Teddy. The GFS trolls Greenland as a sub 950mb hurricane with it. The UKMET keeps it offshore but thinks that disturbance that's been loitering in the GOM for a week now will eventually do something.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 16, 2020 13:18:19 GMT -6
Same EURO seems to suggest we remain drier than a bone and quite hot throughout October. In otherwords, Summer isn't done by a long shot.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 16, 2020 15:28:27 GMT -6
I sm slightly concerned a 2012 pattern is setting up with how dry things are looking going into the winter
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 16, 2020 15:45:19 GMT -6
Sept and oct are 2 of our driest months. Don't compare to 2012 until we have like 6 months of below normal precip and is 105 or hotter next summer for days on end. This year is way above normal water wise, we could use some average precip or even below. The surface might dry up but plenty down under I think.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 16, 2020 15:56:54 GMT -6
Sept and oct are 2 of our driest months. Don't compare to 2012 until we have like 6 months of below normal precip and is 105 or hotter next summer for days on end. This year is way above normal water wise, we could use some average precip or even below. The surface might dry up but plenty down under I think. Yep. Based on rainfall days, CoMo Septembers are the 3rd driest of the year. We actually see a 2nd peak wet-time, probably alongside the fall severe season in October & November. i.imgur.com/qBHOJvQ.png |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 16, 2020 16:58:52 GMT -6
Sept and oct are 2 of our driest months. Don't compare to 2012 until we have like 6 months of below normal precip and is 105 or hotter next summer for days on end. This year is way above normal water wise, we could use some average precip or even below. The surface might dry up but plenty down under I think. Additionally the drought of 2012 was going in to the hottest months of the year. Combined with little humidity is how we had the incredible heat that summer. Right now things are cooling off. If humidity levels continue to drop this time of year it will mean cooler temps in the mornings. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 16, 2020 18:23:00 GMT -6
Sept and oct are 2 of our driest months. Don't compare to 2012 until we have like 6 months of below normal precip and is 105 or hotter next summer for days on end. This year is way above normal water wise, we could use some average precip or even below. The surface might dry up but plenty down under I think. Additionally the drought of 2012 was going in to the hottest months of the year. Combined with little humidity is how we had the incredible heat that summer. Right now things are cooling off. If humidity levels continue to drop this time of year it will mean cooler temps in the mornings. A perfect recipe for vibrant fall colors! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 16, 2020 18:28:16 GMT -6
Im back in Omaha for a few days and the smoke was down to the ground here. Super thick.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 16, 2020 18:28:23 GMT -6
18Z GFS shows a beauty of a pattern switch at the end of the run with a textbook negative NAO/AO and Pacific Ridge which dumps a huge trough into the east bringing a true autumn blast. If it where December or January it would of been beautiful. Watch it disappear next run though.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 16, 2020 19:00:05 GMT -6
Thank you guys for the explanations. I guess it just feels way drier due to the previous wet season.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 16, 2020 19:14:37 GMT -6
Im back in Omaha for a few days and the smoke was down to the ground here. Super thick. Chris, you have a PM. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 16, 2020 19:16:32 GMT -6
18Z GFS shows a beauty of a pattern switch at the end of the run with a textbook negative NAO/AO and Pacific Ridge which dumps a huge trough into the east bringing a true autumn blast. If it where December or January it would of been beautiful. Watch it disappear next run though. Peek at 06z GFS yesterday. I'd say it's a wait and see for some consistency type of event. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 16, 2020 20:04:29 GMT -6
Im back in Omaha for a few days and the smoke was down to the ground here. Super thick. Caught a few whiffs of smokey air around here today driving with the windows down...definitely a persistent, bronze colored haze last few days. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 16, 2020 21:32:57 GMT -6
If you're already catching wiffs of smoke and if the HRRR and RAP smoke models are right then you maybe getting some even stronger wiffs tomorrow. It still looks like 10am give or take a few hours is prime time for the drop down to the surface.
I will say that I have concerns about the skill of aerosol modeling especially below the planetary boundary layer. We'll see how this plays out tomorrow.
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Post by cardsnweather on Sept 16, 2020 21:53:06 GMT -6
If you're already catching wiffs of smoke and if the HRRR and RAP smoke models are right then you maybe getting some even stronger wiffs tomorrow. It still looks like 10am give or take a few hours is prime time for the drop down to the surface. I will say that I have concerns about the skill of aerosol modeling especially below the planetary boundary layer. We'll see how this plays out tomorrow. I must say, the ability to model anything regarding that Is impressive. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 16, 2020 21:54:54 GMT -6
If you're already catching wiffs of smoke and if the HRRR and RAP smoke models are right then you maybe getting some even stronger wiffs tomorrow. It still looks like 10am give or take a few hours is prime time for the drop down to the surface. I will say that I have concerns about the skill of aerosol modeling especially below the planetary boundary layer. We'll see how this plays out tomorrow. I must say, the ability to model anything regarding that Is impressive. Agreed...it's amazing how much models have evolved over the past several years! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 16, 2020 22:01:48 GMT -6
Seeing how much of an effect wildfire smoke can have on the atmosphere and even temperature, it makes me feel like I understand periods of time like the “Year without a Summer” better. Just imagine the effect that much ash had on the earth’s weather. It even makes me think about mass extinction events like the KT asteroid more clearly.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 16, 2020 22:24:16 GMT -6
Seeing how much of an effect wildfire smoke can have on the atmosphere and even temperature, it makes me feel like I understand periods of time like the “Year without a Summer” better. Just imagine the effect that much ash had on the earth’s weather. It even makes me think about mass extinction events like the KT asteroid more clearly. SHHHHH....it's 2020..don't give it any ideas. |
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