|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 30, 2020 20:24:43 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 30, 2020 20:26:20 GMT -6
We have not heard from Friv yet this winter.... I hope all is ok
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Nov 30, 2020 20:37:09 GMT -6
Thanks for sharing. I posted this article to my Facebook earlier. |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Nov 30, 2020 20:48:58 GMT -6
This is truly depressing. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Nov 30, 2020 20:56:06 GMT -6
Anyone see the 00z NAM. Nice swath of wet snow/rain just disappears as it heads for the metro lol. It looks like the t-shirt design! By tomorrow at 12z, we will have a better handle on this odd ball wound up system.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Nov 30, 2020 21:24:40 GMT -6
Here's what I have noticed so far this year... models have been trending a bit too warm with this marginal temp cases-- looking at October 27th, and the sleet mess that came through last week... And to see the NAM trend in the direction of what the GEFS snow means were earlier today give me hope to see some flakes flakes in my neck of the woods come Thursday morning. Not like any of you care... sucks to see that thing just collapse inside of itself as it loses upper-level support.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Nov 30, 2020 21:39:36 GMT -6
Here's what I have noticed so far this year... models have been trending a bit too warm with this marginal temp cases-- looking at October 27th, and the sleet mess that came through last week... And to see the NAM trend in the direction of what the GEFS snow means were earlier today give me hope to see some flakes flakes in my neck of the woods come Thursday morning. Not like any of you care... sucks to see that thing just collapse inside of itself as it loses upper-level support. I'm happy that you will get to enjoy a couple hours of snow! At least someone on this board gets to experience the snow. You and worldseries are always rooting for/keeping the STL metro updated if we are going to see snow. I'll root for you guys then too despite that I don't post that often! |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 30, 2020 21:39:45 GMT -6
LOl, clouds hanging on in St louis ..not gonna be anywhere near 20 if it stays cloudy all night.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Nov 30, 2020 22:25:38 GMT -6
Clouds always seem to hang tough in our area
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Nov 30, 2020 23:07:04 GMT -6
LOl, clouds hanging on in St louis ..not gonna be anywhere near 20 if it stays cloudy all night. True, but the stratus are fading now. In Union its probably already near 20* with a clear sky and light winds! |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 30, 2020 23:22:54 GMT -6
22 lol
|
|
|
|
Post by bear1 on Nov 30, 2020 23:34:50 GMT -6
19° here...imby 
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 1, 2020 0:26:05 GMT -6
21* 7 miles west of De Soto. BRRRR
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 1, 2020 7:16:10 GMT -6
22* at KSTL and 19* at KSUS. Not bad for KSTL, colder than the forecasted 23*. Plus, a west wind was still blowing. If the winds were calm it would of been even colder at KSTL. While KSUS has had calm winds on its obs this morning. Also, the lows may be 21* and 18* as there might of been more of a temperature drop after 5:51am or 5:54am! I wish all the airports updated every minute on the NOAA site!
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Dec 1, 2020 7:49:51 GMT -6
Went from 19° at 4:30 down to 16° at 7:00am. Quite frosty this morning as well out here.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 1, 2020 8:10:31 GMT -6
19* at KSUS and 22* at KSTL were the official lows!
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 1, 2020 8:21:27 GMT -6
My at home outdoor thermostat said 14 here this morning around 630am
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Dec 1, 2020 8:54:20 GMT -6
I had 19 in Festus!
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 1, 2020 8:56:40 GMT -6
19* here in northern Wildwood. I may be wrong, but I don't think Dave Murray's Dec temperature forecast will be wrong.
It's so hard to forecast when the NAO dips negative or PV disruption happens! I don't think Dave planned on that happening. As well, I know some on here were worried about the child air supply to our North. IMO the cold air supply to our North looks healthly to me.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 1, 2020 9:22:32 GMT -6
GEM looks pretty interesting with the cut off later in the week...it doesn't elongate/shear out the circulation as much and keeps it together as it slowly ejects east. That would keep the possibility of wrap around snow into the weekend. It seems like models have had a tendency to shear out these upper lows too quickly, so maybe it's into something. The 06z GFS looks similar and the GEM has support from it's ensembles.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 1, 2020 9:27:52 GMT -6
Check out the 06z GFS. The low strengthens again as its passing to our south allowing a deformation zone to set up over the area
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 1, 2020 9:51:57 GMT -6
Check out the 06z GFS. The low strengthens again as its passing to our south allowing a deformation zone to set up over the area 12z says nope. I still think there will be a period of sleet/snow at the onset of precip Thursday morning with temps in the low 30's, especially south of the metro. |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Dec 1, 2020 9:57:49 GMT -6
Our low temp was 18.4*
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 1, 2020 10:46:20 GMT -6
At 500mb, I see the 12z GFS trying to strengthen the flow with more cyclonic vorticity further west. Potentially leading to wrap around deformation precip near us if the the 500mb flow can be more organized further west just a bit than this 12z run. It's super close on this run to spit out this deformation precip, but no cigar. Maybe the next run of the GFS will look more like the 12z GEM.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 1, 2020 10:57:11 GMT -6
GFS continues to show a favorable, more classic winter pattern setting up by Day 9/10. Long ways off, but it has reeled it in from the day 12+ range.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 1, 2020 11:00:39 GMT -6
At 500mb, I see the 12z GFS trying to strengthen the flow with more cyclonic vorticity further west. Potentially leading to wrap around deformation precip near us if the the 500mb flow can be more organized further west just a bit than this 12z run. It's super close on this run to spit out this deformation precip, but no cigar. Maybe the next run of the GFS to look more like the 12z GEM. The 06z GEFS looked good as well...I wouldn't put much weight on one operational run with such a complex setup. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 1, 2020 11:31:07 GMT -6
At 500mb, I see the 12z GFS trying to strengthen the flow with more cyclonic vorticity further west. Potentially leading to wrap around deformation precip near us if the the 500mb flow can be more organized further west just a bit than this 12z run. It's super close on this run to spit out this deformation precip, but no cigar. Maybe the next run of the GFS to look more like the 12z GEM. The 06z GEFS looked good as well...I wouldn't put much weight on one operational run with such a complex setup. Good point your right, no reason to look at one specific model. Just analysing the recent run to see where we are at and what we need for deformation snow. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 1, 2020 11:31:10 GMT -6
12z Ukie looks similar to the 6z GFS. This is a weird setup. The energy is just kind of drifting around out there with other lobes of energy floating around
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 1, 2020 11:54:48 GMT -6
12z Ukie looks similar to the 6z GFS. This is a weird setup. The energy is just kind of drifting around out there with other lobes of energy floating around Yep...the Ukie is on board too. Seems like the EURO has tended to be a stubborn holdout this season. And it hasn't performed real well with these ejecting lobes of energy out of the SW. It's caved to the GFS more than once so far this early season. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 1, 2020 16:17:22 GMT -6
looks like northern Ohio will be in line for another whopper once that low exits our area.
|
|
