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Post by mchafin on Dec 2, 2020 9:53:03 GMT -6
Question for the group -- what is causing this system to fall apart over the region as it passes by?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2020 9:57:17 GMT -6
Question for the group -- what is causing this system to fall apart over the region as it passes by? The snow gods are still avenging their once-in-a-lifetime mishap from early January 2014. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2020 10:11:02 GMT -6
Question for the group -- what is causing this system to fall apart over the region as it passes by? The energy gets sheared out as it starts to eject only for it to possibly restrengthen as it moves by to our south and east. Oh ya and revenge. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2020 10:31:39 GMT -6
The setup mid month on the gfs with a lead wave coaxing the cold air down and energy loading in the 4 Corners region is exciting.
12z run today continues that trend.
Obviously, there will be tremendous variation in outcome run to run, but it’s nice to see the table consistently set.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 2, 2020 10:52:14 GMT -6
HRRRv4 went live as of 12Z this morning.
I believe GFSv16 is planned for early 2021.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2020 11:08:50 GMT -6
The setup mid month on the gfs with a lead wave coaxing the cold air down and energy loading in the 4 Corners region is exciting. 12z run today continues that trend. Obviously, there will be tremendous variation in outcome run to run, but it’s nice to see the table consistently set. Yea, the ingredients are there. The question for me right now is, will there be an aggressive push of shallow arctic air into what will likely be multiple waves of energy? The setup has that look, but it isn't reflected on the temps just yet. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2020 11:24:18 GMT -6
It definitely looks like the cA tap will turn back on around/after the 10th as the trof in the GoA breaks down and allows the -EPO to develop. And it looks like the S stream will become loaded with energy. The ingredients are there...
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 2, 2020 12:02:08 GMT -6
HRRRv4 went live as of 12Z this morning. I believe GFSv16 is planned for early 2021. Goes to 48 hours too on the 6 hour increments. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2020 13:14:11 GMT -6
12z euro is onboard for the 12th
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2020 13:47:54 GMT -6
84 hour euro. Six different lobes of energy over the country  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 2, 2020 13:53:38 GMT -6
84 hour euro. Six different lobes of energy over the country Wow that's nuts in a fun way |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2020 13:55:22 GMT -6
84 hour euro. Six different lobes of energy over the country Easily one of the most chaotic/noisy flows I've seen... |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 2, 2020 14:17:06 GMT -6
84 hour euro. Six different lobes of energy over the country Easily one of the most chaotic/noisy flows I've seen... Like randomly tossing a handful of rocks into a pool. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2020 14:20:34 GMT -6
A lot of people use that plinko analogy to describe the NWP *process*... but looking at that, it's like an actually game of freakin' plinko in the sky! lol
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 2, 2020 14:44:01 GMT -6
Easily one of the most chaotic/noisy flows I've seen... Like randomly tossing a handful of rocks into a pool. I've always thought of our atmosphere as a fish tank lol! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 2, 2020 16:17:20 GMT -6
84 hour euro. Six different lobes of energy over the country Wouldn't that split up the available energy so that none of those lows has the possibility of getting very strong? |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2020 16:52:32 GMT -6
18z gfs giving us the bullish warm sector treatment.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 2, 2020 17:09:17 GMT -6
If there is a wound up storm mid mo the there is no doubt it'll cut to our northwest. If it's more piece meal then we have a much better shot at winter stuff.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 2, 2020 17:29:01 GMT -6
I agree , we only have 10 days of model runs, (40 GFS runs) it’s likely to give us some great runs and many not so great out cones. I’ve said this many times before on here, SO many things have to go just right and be perfect for us to get a good winter storm in the St. Louis area. Just the right amount of cold air ( not to little or to much) just the right storm track , just the right amount of blocking and the overall strength of the storm ( not to little or not to big) !
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 2, 2020 17:35:18 GMT -6
I am feeling a record warm december still
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 2, 2020 17:48:34 GMT -6
I am feeling a record warm december still What could you possibly be basing this on? |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 2, 2020 17:56:06 GMT -6
Well that's that. DISH and Nextstar has Blocked KTVI/KPLR With everything going on they are still doing this petty fighting. Can't Watch FOX2 News now.
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Post by REB on Dec 2, 2020 17:59:14 GMT -6
Well that's that. DISH and Nextstar has Blocked KTVI/KPLR With everything going on they are still doing this petty fighting. Can't Watch FOX2 News now. When spectrum did that we got an antenna. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2020 18:27:40 GMT -6
I am feeling a record warm december still Bold call.  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 2, 2020 18:43:48 GMT -6
I am feeling a record warm december still Bold call. That's a pretty map! Goes along well with the current census! But yeah a bold call ajd446! Especially, anyone who says I am feeling with no Meteorology evidence. You can feel all you want, it won't do you crap in the weather world. The atmosphere doesn't care what you feel, it does what it wants! That's one of reasons I like following weather so much! There is so much variability, no one has the complete answer or most accurate answer. Forecasting weather relates to the chaotic things that happen in our own lives! |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 2, 2020 18:55:24 GMT -6
Your usually spot on with your predictions and in storm reports ...
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 2, 2020 19:23:51 GMT -6
Your usually spot on with your predictions and in storm reports ... Are you referring to Btrn? Btrn is spot pretty much all the time! He's got a talent for sure. |
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Post by ElburnDave on Dec 2, 2020 20:18:43 GMT -6
I speak sarcasm, and I don’t believe that statement was directed at BTRN.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 2, 2020 20:22:41 GMT -6
I speak sarcasm, and I don’t believe that statement was directed at BTRN. I think your right. Thanks Elburn Dave! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 2, 2020 20:38:16 GMT -6
The 01z HRRR says it's going to be wet for metro tomorrow at 11-12. Maybe we can get some flakes to mix in earlier in the morning when precip breaks out?
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