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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2020 20:46:12 GMT -6
A mean like this a week and a few days out can't be a bad thing either... i.imgur.com/qTvzEL0.pngI have hopes for that time frame. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 2, 2020 21:02:24 GMT -6
I just have seen this flip on us too much. I hope im wrong.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 2, 2020 21:09:13 GMT -6
Currently 29 degrees here. Little bit of moisture heading up from the SW. we shall see.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Dec 2, 2020 21:22:06 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 2, 2020 22:07:00 GMT -6
Overnight Sun into Mon could still bring us a chance of a quick hit of snow I think as a cyclonic vorticity max from the NE visits our neck of the woods.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2020 22:45:47 GMT -6
It is astounding how familiar this pattern looks. Another sheared out 4 corners cut off for the stuff mid-month. Wild to look at. Feels like deja vu.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 3, 2020 0:14:04 GMT -6
Currently 29 degrees here. Little bit of moisture heading up from the SW. we shall see. I was at 34 and just went up to 35, I am up along the ridge line of H.....you must be in the vicinity of Calico Creek??? Hopefully my elevation helps me this winter  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 3, 2020 3:08:16 GMT -6
Went to bed with a temp of 29 ..... now I’m sitting at 34 lol ..... I have seen this movie way to many times
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2020 3:51:04 GMT -6
very light rain here it looks like..maybe a couple flakes? Very hard to tell.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 3, 2020 4:49:13 GMT -6
Nothing but liquid falling (sprinkles) here with a temp of 38°. Temp went up 7° since 10pm last night
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 3, 2020 7:43:08 GMT -6
Yep. Went to bed and it was 28. Woke up and it’s 37.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 3, 2020 7:50:30 GMT -6
I had a couple sprinkles. Looking at the weather currently going in in the models I am still not feeling it in terms of winter weather mid month. I hope I am wrong as usually I always hype up snows. But I am going very conservative this year. No maybe not record warm I know that was a bit extreme, but with euro showing 50s in the warm sector next weekend, and the other modles that due show cold jusy squshe it all in a sheared out mess, i am just not feeling anything big. I hope bu mext wednesday or Thursday I can eat my.words and we have something big to track for the following weekend around the 13th
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Post by ElburnDave on Dec 3, 2020 8:27:53 GMT -6
Pruffreeding is an dyeing art.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 3, 2020 8:51:47 GMT -6
im assuming that those of you who put a "record warm December" outlook on this board have done some research into 1) what is the record for warmest December; and 2) what will it take to achieve that record given current forecasts in the short term out to a week or so. if so, do tell.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 3, 2020 9:02:30 GMT -6
All rain here.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 3, 2020 9:04:38 GMT -6
I felt a week ago trends were looking torchy. But now I am thinking slightly above average temps, with maybe 1 inch of snow by the end of the momth.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 3, 2020 9:14:41 GMT -6
im assuming that those of you who put a "record warm December" outlook on this board have done some research into 1) what is the record for warmest December; and 2) what will it take to achieve that record given current forecasts in the short term out to a week or so. if so, do tell. Thank-you for posting this! |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 3, 2020 9:27:34 GMT -6
Some people(s) thoughts (forecasts/predictions) on here change about as much/fast as TWC forecast does......hourly it seems.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Dec 3, 2020 10:08:23 GMT -6
Some people(s) thoughts (forecasts/predictions) on here change about as much/fast as TWC forecast does......hourly it seems. Well, most of the posters here are amateurs so it's OK. No one has to read every single post. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2020 10:12:29 GMT -6
I know a few others mentioned it, but the energy coming down in the flow Sunday/Monday needs to be watched for a few snow showers
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Post by dschreib on Dec 3, 2020 11:33:06 GMT -6
If Facebook hasn't taught people to keep scrollin', scrollin', scrollin', scrollin', then nothing will.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2020 12:13:25 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen is leaning towards an absorptive PV event coming up now instead of a reflective event (if one actually materializes).
This would likely be beneficial for a substantive wintry pattern developing and sustaining in January.
The flip side is that we would likely be mild heading through December.
Worth keeping an eye on developments with this macro driver, but it’s gfs model data so I’m unsure how stable the run to run continuity is...on second thought it’s the gfs so it’s probably pretty freaking variable lol
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 3, 2020 13:06:09 GMT -6
About all we can say at this point is that the dome of cold is building and shifting into central and western Canada as opposed to the small lobes that have just been shunted east. It does appear that the negative EPO scenario is developing, even on the Euro which is notoriously stingy with it's cold in the long range. Let's just hope it continues and we will be in good shape.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 3, 2020 13:13:12 GMT -6
Models are showing a pretty significant -WPO regime setting up towards D7 and beyond...looks to potentially set up some cross-polar flow into NA and the lower 48 towards mid-month. There's still a fairly consistent signal for a winter storm system to develop across the central US/Midwest around the 12th or so, which fits climatology pretty well. There always seems to be a shot of cold air and associated storminess around the 10th-15th timeframe most years.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 3, 2020 13:23:47 GMT -6
Just a quick retort/rant about some observations yesterday. I happened upon a link trending in Twitter about how The Goo Goo Dolls were performing Christmas songs and they were referred to as a classic rock band. I chuckled to myself (and gratefully too) because I have reached the age to where this happens quite frequently now. I started reading the comments and the flat out hateful, mean, condescending, ruthless remarks from people WRT to the lead singer's apparent aging. WTH is wrong with people. Apparently there is a need for a lot of people to stand in front of a mirror while pointing their finger at themselves and stay there until the realization hits them that 3 fingers are pointing back at themselves. That was one of the many eye opening lessons I was taught early on in sobriety. Rant over except for the warming of the temperatures overnight as the moisture moved in.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 13:44:06 GMT -6
Just a quick retort/rant about some observations yesterday. I happened upon a link trending in Twitter about how The Goo Goo Dolls were performing Christmas songs and they were referred to as a classic rock band. I chuckled to myself (and gratefully too) because I have reached the age to where this happens quite frequently now. I started reading the comments and the flat out hateful, mean, condescending, ruthless remarks from people WRT to the lead singer's apparent aging. WTH is wrong with people. Apparently there is a need for a lot of people to stand in front of a mirror while pointing their finger at themselves and stay there until the realization hits them that 3 fingers are pointing back at themselves. That was one of the many eye opening lessons I was taught early on in sobriety. Rant over except for the warming of the temperatures overnight as the moisture moved in. People are a lot braver behind a computer screen than they are face-to-face... that's one thing social media has really done to unravel meaningful discourse in our society... That has become unhinged this year. EDIT: and perhaps it's less about social media and more about the dichotomy of humans and computers. Our brains did not evolve to function in this environment. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 13:55:55 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 3, 2020 13:59:16 GMT -6
Jeez.. I didnt realize that storm had a wiki. |
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141 
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Dec 3, 2020 14:01:32 GMT -6
Yup, that sounds about right! Man, 14 years...y'all are getting old...  Not me though... |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 3, 2020 14:27:58 GMT -6
This is why I don’t comment on news articles or anything like that anymore. If I do I immediately regret it. It’s sad you can’t have a different opinion than someone else without being attacked. I’m all for debate but what takes place online is ridiculous. I even have family I can’t have on Facebook. Just sad.
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Not me though...