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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2020 11:27:17 GMT -6
Chasing OP model runs and calculated teleconnection indices at this range is pointless with a large scale pattern change looming...ensembles still look pretty supportive to me.
Time will tell.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2020 11:55:19 GMT -6
Chasing OP model runs and calculated teleconnection indices at this range is pointless with a large scale pattern change looming...ensembles still look pretty supportive to me. Time will tell. Good point, many are making a big deal about current trends on one operational model. Like you say it's smarter to look at the ensembles and see the big picture. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2020 12:00:34 GMT -6
meh, the trend in the gefs and eps is for less cold and quicker hit of what does happen
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2020 12:03:13 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks great for snow showers or even a sustained period of light snow Sunday afternoon.
Not an accumulating event, but could be scenic around STL
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2020 12:07:05 GMT -6
meh, the trend in the gefs and eps is for less cold and quicker hit of what does happen Stratospheric event is looking more likely, so while we may have to wait several weeks to benefit, at least there is potential our reward is large. Timing is nearly perfect if the PV comes to town in early January. It’s not all doom and gloom |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 4, 2020 12:09:14 GMT -6
At least it isn't in the 60's and 70's like recent Decembers have been. A more normal temp range is good to see I guess. But I have to say I sure didn't mind those utility bills.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2020 12:19:59 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks great for snow showers or even a sustained period of light snow Sunday afternoon. Not an accumulating event, but could be scenic around STL Thats a potent jet streak coming down in the flow
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2020 13:22:29 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks great for snow showers or even a sustained period of light snow Sunday afternoon. Not an accumulating event, but could be scenic around STL Thats a potent jet streak coming down in the flow
That gradient right down the river valley should kick up something. But as with most "Manitoba Maulers", it's pretty darn moisture starved. Maybe it'll pick up some moisture off the lakes... |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 4, 2020 14:35:46 GMT -6
What was 1226 and 1227 winter analog look like lol. Alright I’ll give you that one, that’s pretty solid. But, likely still didn’t have a record warm December. Yep, that got a loud chuckle out of me...  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2020 14:57:59 GMT -6
Stick a fork in it per the CPC
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2020 14:59:40 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2020 15:00:14 GMT -6
dammit unclesam beat me lol
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 4, 2020 15:15:21 GMT -6
I from the beginning personally felt a 2011, 2012 esque winter. That is why I am being so conservative
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2020 15:33:05 GMT -6
Stick a fork in it per the CPC They must have got AJD's memo. Shut it down..."there's always next year" |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2020 16:57:54 GMT -6
Stick a fork in it per the CPC May happen, but I've seen NOAA's CPC be wrong with long range forecasts! There's no reason to put your eggs in one basket. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 4, 2020 17:11:25 GMT -6
We are so far into a drought we are probably going to stay dry.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 4, 2020 17:27:44 GMT -6
CPC forecasts in the long range have an awful track record.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 4, 2020 18:15:54 GMT -6
Awful or not there’s a lot of support for a warm 15-30th from GEFS and EPS. Hopefully there wrong, again we all know we don’t want deep cold but we want at least cold enough for snow or ice . I was pretty excited a few days ago with a lot of things I was seeing for the future, but it has definitely trended warmer. Hopefully the strat warming event does take place later this motor January, but that’s always a crap shoot. Half the time the cold ends up going to the other side of the world after the event.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2020 19:10:07 GMT -6
yep
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2020 20:31:19 GMT -6
NAM's are looking good for Sunday night into Monday morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2020 22:30:01 GMT -6
00z gfs looks a little different for next weekend lol
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2020 22:49:37 GMT -6
00z gfs looks a little different for next weekend lol Yep! No cutter, further south, less wound up, more progressive and colder. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 4, 2020 22:56:31 GMT -6
00z gfs looks a little different for next weekend lol Yep! No cutter, further south, less wound up, more progressive and colder. Kind of looks like those stalled boundary setups with secondary development potential. I suppose anything is possible. GEM looks entirely different for that time period. I need to stop looking at long range model outputs. |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 5, 2020 9:02:30 GMT -6
Clear, cool and calm! Til when?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2020 10:21:50 GMT -6
12z gfs is interesting next weekend
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2020 10:55:25 GMT -6
12z gfs is interesting next weekend Unfortunately the GFS doesn't have much support right now. Last night's euro and this morning's GEM are sheared out messes |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2020 11:00:51 GMT -6
12z gfs is interesting next weekend Unfortunately the GFS doesn't have much support right now. Last night's euro and this morning's GEM are sheared out messes I’ll take that over a cutter to our west. At least keeps it cooler with a Chance for snow showers. Really just trying to highlight the high run-to-run variability in the operational models in the day 5-10 range. No reason to get too worked up over it |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 5, 2020 12:08:48 GMT -6
Keep it dry and somewhat mild. We're coming down to my mom's, hopefully for Christmas if my husband can get his leave in route approved. Then we are hoping my husband can fly out of STL to go downrange. I need good weather so nothing affects him leaving for deployment. Then after I drive back on the 2nd it can snow as much as it wants for y'all.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2020 12:09:49 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2020 12:14:57 GMT -6
Unfortunately the GFS doesn't have much support right now. Last night's euro and this morning's GEM are sheared out messes I’ll take that over a cutter to our west. At least keeps it cooler with a Chance for snow showers. Really just trying to highlight the high run-to-run variability in the operational models in the day 5-10 range. No reason to get too worked up over it I'm gunna get worked up and there's nothing you can do to stop me.  |
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