|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2020 12:19:19 GMT -6
Talk about having to be in juuusst the right place to get snowfall |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Dec 5, 2020 12:31:16 GMT -6
Tomorrow is Snowman99’s birthday. Please join in wishing him whatever weather makes him happy. 😜
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2020 12:56:24 GMT -6
Thanks REb
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2020 13:20:46 GMT -6
Latest obs out of Boston is heavy rain 38* and north wind at 25 gusting to 37. Gross
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 5, 2020 13:28:35 GMT -6
Happy early Birthday snowman !!
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 5, 2020 14:11:22 GMT -6
It’s like the st Louis and Columbia Mo winter weather, in Boston its a cold rain and in Worster an hour west they have 3-6” already on the ground with 1-2” an hour snow rates. The typical us watching it pile up in Columbia only to get the mostly rain and a few wet flakes as the storm pulls away.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2020 14:13:43 GMT -6
Yeah, but Boston will actually get 4-8 inches of snow tonight. It'll change over the next couple hours. But yeah, it would be all rain here lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2020 14:46:57 GMT -6
Ensembles appear to get bleaker every day as we head to mid month and beyond. December not looking good as expected. But could change...I guess.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2020 15:02:18 GMT -6
Now Boston has heavy rain and 34. North wind at 28 G45.
Should be snowing there very soon.
Lucky bastards
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2020 15:11:34 GMT -6
Ensembles appear to get bleaker every day as we head to mid month and beyond. December not looking good as expected. But could change...I guess. Ya really no sign of any big cold or favorable pattern for storms the next two weeks. Euro ensembles do start to build some cold in northern Canada in the extended range so maybe a small flicker of light at the end of the tunnel |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2020 15:24:28 GMT -6
56.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Dec 5, 2020 15:29:55 GMT -6
Now Boston has heavy rain and 34. North wind at 28 G45. Should be snowing there very soon. Lucky bastards Snowing on the Boston tea party web cam. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2020 15:34:42 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2020 16:21:50 GMT -6
SSW event continues to look more likely by mid December.
Could lead to a couple mild weeks to end December before a sustained wintry pattern in January
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2020 16:22:39 GMT -6
18z gfs looks good for next weekend
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2020 16:23:34 GMT -6
Wow the Boston radar went from looking amazing to bad in a matter of a few frames
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2020 16:28:04 GMT -6
I’ll take what the 18z gfs is having next weekend. It’s starting to get a little consistency with something of that variety, but as others have said, it’s got little in the way of support. Track record is pretty solid the last few months though.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Dec 5, 2020 17:19:37 GMT -6
The NWS wants spotters to sign in: From Facebook. “US National Weather Service Saint Louis Missouri
5m ·
We have 343 #Skywarn20 spotter check-ins from as far as Evansville, IN! Of course, our amazing spotters across MO/IL have come out in full force.
We still want to fill the map! Get the word out to all your \weather spotter friends and tell them to check in! #MOwx #ILwx #MidMOwx”
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 5, 2020 17:36:44 GMT -6
The 18z GFS is a slam dunk for snow for next weekend! Great placement for us.
|
|
|
|
Post by jeepers on Dec 5, 2020 18:49:10 GMT -6
Happy Birthday, Snowman! I'd give you a blizzard, but I'm all out. Here's hoping for snowy weather for you soon.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 5, 2020 20:37:15 GMT -6
A few people have recently mentioned the accuracy of CPC seasonal forecasts. The verification data is available on their website so I was curious...what does the objective data say? Spoiler for those that just want to stop reading and just want the answer: it's skillful overall, but not that great for Winter months and can be pretty good and quite bad at times. First let me briefly describe how the seasonal forecasts are scored and then let me explain how I've presented the data. Forecasts are graded based on the Heidke Skill Score method. In a nutshell it represents the percentage of forecast "hits" relative to a random forecast. The CPC has 3 forecast categories: Above, Equal Chances, and Below. They further expand on the above and below categories with graduated probabilities, but the verification does not consider that. The verification process divides the forecast into 168 grid points where observations (either above, normal, or below relative to 30yr climatology) are graded against the forecast (above, equal, below) for each grid point. Unfortunately I couldn't find what the thresholds were for an observation to be considered say above or below. Now if I were to randomly make a forecast across this 168 point grid I should get 56 correct on average. If I get more it's skillful. If I get less it it's worse than a waste of time. The worst is 0 hits (-50%) and the best is 168 hits (100%). I looked at all 3 month forecasts for last 25 years (12 per year). However, I'm only showing the data for the December/January/February forecasts issued in mid-November because, of course, we're obsessed with Winter. I chose to consider only the verification of Above and Below forecasts (i.e. non-Equal Chance) because...well...that's the whole point of a forecast. I admit this isn't completely fair to look at just non- equal chance forecasts for DJF only. Now in fairness when your look at all coverage area and all forecasts (not just DJF) the results are much better.  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2020 20:58:43 GMT -6
A few people have recently mentioned the accuracy of CPC seasonal forecasts. The verification data is available on their website so I was curious...what does the objective data say? Spoiler for those that just want to stop reading and just want the answer: it's skillful overall, but not that great for Winter months and can be pretty good and quite bad at times. First let me briefly describe how the seasonal forecasts are scored and then let me explain how I've presented the data. Forecasts are graded based on the Heidke Skill Score method. In a nutshell it represents the percentage of forecast "hits" relative to a random forecast. The CPC has 3 forecast categories: Above, Equal Chances, and Below. They further expand on the above and below categories with graduated probabilities, but the verification does not consider that. The verification process divides the forecast into 168 grid points where observations (either above, normal, or below relative to 30yr climatology) are graded against the forecast (above, equal, below) for each grid point. Unfortunately I couldn't find what the thresholds were for an observation to be considered say above or below. Now if I were to randomly make a forecast across this 168 point grid I should get 56 correct on average. If I get more it's skillful. If I get less it it's worse than a waste of time. The worst is 0 hits (-50%) and the best is 168 hits (100%). I looked at all 3 month forecasts for last 25 years (12 per year). However, I'm only showing the data for the December/January/February forecasts issued in mid-November because, of course, we're obsessed with Winter. I chose to consider only the verification of Above and Below forecasts (i.e. non-Equal Chance) because...well...that's the whole point of a forecast. I admit this isn't completely fair to look at just non- equal chance forecasts for DJF only. Now in fairness when your look at all coverage area and all forecasts (not just DJF) the results are much better.  Thanks for posting this information. I wonder if 2000, 2001, 2003, 2010, and 2018 had anything in common given the poor temp forecasts. For instance, were they disrupted PV years? |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2020 21:57:18 GMT -6
00z icon throwing some support to the 12z and 18z gfs
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 5, 2020 22:06:52 GMT -6
Just a heads up I corrected my graphic in the post above. I discovered a major error; the column labels in the CPC data file were mislabeled and had a extra unlabeled column. This became obvious when I started looking at the web archive and noticed discrepancies. Looks like I was inadvertently plotting verification for all forecast categories when I intended just non equal chance categories. Doesn't really change conclusions other than the trend line seems to indicate that non-EC category temp forecasts for Winter months have actually gotten worse over 25 years...ouch.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 5, 2020 22:17:44 GMT -6
Seems like had more faith in the AVN and NGM back in the day than I do now
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2020 22:20:55 GMT -6
Gfs giveth and gfs taketh away.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 5, 2020 22:38:06 GMT -6
Gfs giveth and gfs taketh away. It’s absolutely amazing at how different this model can be in a 6 hour time frame |
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Dec 5, 2020 22:53:09 GMT -6
This is crazy. The GFS is like my golf game - consistently inconsistent. I just hope the weekend of the 18th isn’t a Spring severe weather episode.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2020 22:53:10 GMT -6
Gfs giveth and gfs taketh away. 00z Ukmet looks closer to the 12z and 18z gfs with a weaker first wave and other energy holding back ready to eject after the cold air has been coaxed down. Models are bouncing around like pinballs |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 6, 2020 8:26:58 GMT -6
Yeah, but Boston will actually get 4-8 inches of snow tonight. It'll change over the next couple hours. But yeah, it would be all rain here lol. Snowman, Have you heard of any totals for Boston yet. The NWS website snowfall totals does not have any totals for Suffolk County, where Boston resides in. I think the snowfall total graphic was compiled at 10pm last night and might still have been raining there still, I don't know. The "unofficial" totals has a 3am timestamp on it. BTW Happy Birthday |
|
