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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2020 8:49:42 GMT -6
I think Boston got screwed actually. Maybe a couple inches, haven't heard any official amounts though.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 8:59:39 GMT -6
Yeah, but Boston will actually get 4-8 inches of snow tonight. It'll change over the next couple hours. But yeah, it would be all rain here lol. Snowman, Have you heard of any totals for Boston yet. The NWS website snowfall totals does not have any totals for Suffolk County, where Boston resides in. I think the snowfall total graphic was compiled at 10pm last night and might still have been raining there still, I don't know. The "unofficial" totals has a 3am timestamp on it. BTW Happy Birthday Dr. Cohen lives in Boston and reported a couple inches. Sounds like they had a near “STL experience” |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 6, 2020 9:38:17 GMT -6
Wednesday and thursday look to me as if we may make a run at 70 based on how temps are over achieving. Just my thought. I would love some nice mid december weather
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 6, 2020 9:58:52 GMT -6
Happy birthday 99
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 10:00:29 GMT -6
Wednesday and thursday look to me as if we may make a run at 70 based on how temps are over achieving. Just my thought. I would love some nice mid december weather Sounds about 10 degrees too warm |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 6, 2020 10:01:56 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Agent99!
Wait... that's "Get Smart"
Happy Birthday to OUR 99!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2020 10:11:40 GMT -6
*gets my phone shoe out*
Thank you, chief.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 6, 2020 10:24:05 GMT -6
it's too bad the cfs doesn't have an ounce of accurateness.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 6, 2020 10:27:11 GMT -6
Wednesday and thursday look to me as if we may make a run at 70 based on how temps are over achieving. Just my thought. I would love some nice mid december weather Sounds about 10 degrees too warm based on thickness progs, I was thinking 60 is not out of the question. 70 could be achieved if we had other factors, such as heat transport or compressional heating from an advancing cold front. But none of those factors are in play here. It would take a change to our wx pattern to hit 70. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 6, 2020 10:28:49 GMT -6
Just got a flash back on the wife’s face book that 7 years ago today is when we had a surprise 8-9 inches of snow ...... I think we were forecasted to get 1-3 and even that wasn’t forecasted until the day if the event..... great storm
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 6, 2020 10:36:14 GMT -6
SSW event continues to look more likely by mid December. Could lead to a couple mild weeks to end December before a sustained wintry pattern in January I'll be honest, I am not impressed by the recent ssw's we've seen. 3 days of extreme cold dry wx book ended by 55 and dry doesn't make winter memories for me. A more sustainable wx pattern would be a change in the global teleconnections - such as epo, and nao. don't get me wrong, I've read this book before - the all infamous ssw predicted for mid-december, comes 2 weeks later, we get 2 days of near 0 temps without snow cover and another day or two with temps in the 20s before it warms up again. I think I read it 2 or 3 years ago. I know not all ssw's are the same, but when the high pressure moves to our east, and it typically does pretty quickly, then we endure 50s for several weeks. Might as well go ahead and pump the temp up to 70 and get Spring started. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 6, 2020 10:39:08 GMT -6
GFS has a strong cyclone next weekend that pulls well NW of here. Severe threat would be possible
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 10:50:39 GMT -6
GFS has a strong cyclone next weekend that pulls well NW of here. Severe threat would be possible 12z ukmet looks much different. I think the models are really struggling with if there will be two distinct pieces or not |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2020 10:53:59 GMT -6
I think I'd be more concerned with severe potential than snow at this point. If the energy doesn't pull too far north that is.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 6, 2020 11:02:34 GMT -6
You basically have two camps , the Euro/Ukmet are weaker and further south east and the GFS/Gem are more wound up to the north west. Who know what will happen, obviously we would like the weaker further south east scenario.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 11:17:40 GMT -6
You basically have two camps , the Euro/Ukmet are weaker and further south east and the GFS/Gem are more wound up to the north west. Who know what will happen, obviously we would like the weaker further south east scenario. A solution like the 12z ukmet would have some backside potential for the metro if the low bombs |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 6, 2020 11:30:03 GMT -6
That’s basically what the 0z Euro showed, a nice strip of snow for the north east metro area
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 12:33:34 GMT -6
12z euro has two distinct lows and is further southeast than the gfs.
More wound up than the ukmet, but definitely closer to what we want than the gfs/ggem
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Dec 6, 2020 12:47:03 GMT -6
WC is it still to far north and west for snow here?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 12:48:41 GMT -6
WC is it still to far north and west for snow here? Yes, but the ukmet/euro camp is much closer to backside snow. Gfs/ggem are only a potential severe weather setup |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 6, 2020 13:42:13 GMT -6
Maybe some 60s this week. Not complaining. But would rather have colder and snow for Dec.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 6, 2020 14:00:08 GMT -6
It’s only 60 for a couple days!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 6, 2020 15:22:07 GMT -6
The story for next weekend into the first part of the following week is a long ways from written. Definitely cannot discard potential for winter weather... any more than we can discard severe weather threat. Lots to sort out yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 6, 2020 15:33:31 GMT -6
Once again it'll be interesting to see how things play out next week. That lead wave in the N stream needs to get just a bit further out front to give the secondary energy a chance to bundle energy and develop a wave...otherwise there's just too much ridging out front and the wave will probably get sheared out. If the storm stays in the N stream, were pretty much screwed for anything frozen.
The last system looked like a cutter and it trended SE as it approached...let's see if that's the case this time. The large scale pattern looks a bit more supportive this go around, with the phase potentially happening further west which is what we need. The upstream ridge is in a much more favorable position.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 6, 2020 21:33:08 GMT -6
I thought I would take a look to see if Boston NWS updated the snowfall totals......I do not know for sure what the actual forecast was for Boston. Is that possible to look up?  Anyway.... This should make everyone feel "better".....or not  This is copied and pasted from Boston NWS for Suffolk County. Doesn't specifically say "Boston" but I believe that it where Logan AP is. Suffolk County... 1 N Chelsea 1.1"........... 700 AM 12/06 CoCoRaHS Chelsea 0.5"................. 642 PM 12/05 Trained Spotter Jamacia Plain 0.4"......... 800 AM 12/06 Co-Op Observer Logan AP 0.3"............... 600 PM 12/05 Airport This is storm total snowfall as of 11:41am this morning. Can/could you just imagine what our collective reactions would be on this board if this would happen here..... Oh, wait....it has  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 21:40:45 GMT -6
00z Icon is extremely interesting next weekend.
Several gfs ensemble members have painted a similar picture in the last few operational run cycles.
Intriguing
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 21:49:12 GMT -6
Wow, verbatim the 00z Icon is a nasty ice storm for the metro late next weekend.
Let’s see what the gfs dials up
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Post by amstilost on Dec 6, 2020 21:53:50 GMT -6
I pulled this off the 7:16pm EST Sat. Dec. 5th forecast discussion from Boston. I only did this because someone earlier had mentioned about the Boston radar showing much weaker returns in a short amount of time and I believe this explains that. Also this appears to be the point of backing off of snowfall totals. I am only pasting these because it is the only place I know of to find forecasted snow amounts.
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
716 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020
We`re in the thick of it this evening with heavy wet snow
continuing as winds continue to ramp up. The low is centered
directly east of MA offshore this evening with winds now having
come out of the northwest. Hearing many reports of extremely
wet flakes coming down across eastern MA which makes sense given
the extremely mild airmass. Sfc temperatures across the region
generally 32-35 where we`re seeing snow. Intensity has backed
off since this afternoon given the best frontogenesis now lifted
into northern New England. While the back edge of the precip is
now approaching central MA, what earlier seemed like a drastic
drop in radar returns toward northern MA can likely be
attributed to erroneous radar attenuation due to the heavy wet
snow. Additional accumulations will be slow and likely less than
previously expected in the I-95 corridor owing to the warm
temperatures and relatively high dewpoints (at or above
freezing) limiting additional cooling.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 6, 2020 22:26:12 GMT -6
00z GFS cutter city. Meh! Let's hope the 00z GEM and Euro are different.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:27:27 GMT -6
GFS far more progressive, but it has a similar upper-level setup.
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Anyway....
