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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:28:46 GMT -6
00z GFS cutter city. Meh! Let's hope the 00z GEM and Euro are different. GFS is doing the same thing as the ICON wrt the first piece of energy. It all has to do with how the ICON's upper level flow gets back up over the for corners allowing for oodles of PAC moisture to pour into a ton of cold air. If the GFS can slow down JUST a bit, it would look similar |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:31:14 GMT -6
Major differences in the amplification of the eastern Pacific ridge seem to be dictating the difference between these two solutions.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:35:26 GMT -6
i.imgur.com/GVz9ETD.pngi.imgur.com/wLtiqqQ.pngICON is ~12-18 hours slower with the progression of that secondary energy allowing it to dig significantly further to the SW noting the significant difference of amplification of the trailing ridge as well.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:36:57 GMT -6
Based on the dominant pattern of cut-off lows so far this season, while the ICON is probably a bit of a wish cast, I think the GFS is probably a bit too quick.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 22:38:30 GMT -6
Based on the dominant pattern of cut-off lows so far this season, while the ICON is probably a bit of a wish cast, I think the GFS is probably a bit too quick. About 33% of the 00z gfs ensemble members are giving more of an Icon solution, so I think it’s in play |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 6, 2020 22:42:17 GMT -6
Gem pretty much splits the two solutions down the middle.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2020 22:50:01 GMT -6
Fortunately, our friend the 00z ukmet is looking to take an Icon route.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 0:41:09 GMT -6
No good euro
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 7, 2020 6:39:23 GMT -6
the ao and nao are coming down from the mountain they were on in november. this could mean a colder regime is on the way after next weekend.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2020 7:51:51 GMT -6
the ao and nao are coming down from the mountain they were on in november. this could mean a colder regime is on the way after next weekend. The orientation and depth of cold is starting to look good again the last couple days. Even the Euro has it. Maybe this time the rug won't be pulled out from under. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 7, 2020 10:25:55 GMT -6
The 12z GFS tries to spawn some second development (backside snow) behind the main show. The flow at 500mb starts to flatten then.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2020 10:42:56 GMT -6
The 12z GFS tries to spawn some second development (backside snow) behind the main show. The flow at 500mb starts to flatten then. 12z ggem is nice. Quite a few gfs ensemble members are interesting as well. Good trends |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2020 10:45:35 GMT -6
Heck, the 12z ggem is a double dip with snow-on-snow by midweek next week.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2020 11:02:59 GMT -6
O'Canada...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2020 11:03:02 GMT -6
The potential for secondary development like the GEM and some GEFS members show is intriguing for sure.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 7, 2020 11:27:54 GMT -6
What is the Ukmet showing today, any secondary development?
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 11:49:24 GMT -6
What is the Ukmet showing today, any secondary development? Nope. Ejects a bit too quickly. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 11:53:24 GMT -6
Going to be highly dependent on the trajectory of the wave crashing onshore and it's interaction with the current cut-off low over the 4-corners region.
GEM has the vort max riding along the Sierra's allowing it to pool up over the S Great Basin
while the GFS/UKIE take it onshore a bit further to the north and it gets sling-shotted over the great divide.
Euro is on the move.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 7, 2020 12:27:06 GMT -6
2nd best national anthem out there. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2020 12:31:46 GMT -6
Euro gets a nice deformation zone going but its a bit to far north for the metro
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 7, 2020 13:27:35 GMT -6
Pretty favorable trends in the modeling overall with more support for secondary development. And if things don't work out with the first system, there looks to be another storm following pretty close behind with cold air building across the N tier.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2020 14:33:40 GMT -6
 BULLSEYE! |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 7, 2020 15:53:02 GMT -6
I still cant feel good about this pattern yet for snow its just my gut feeling.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 7, 2020 17:48:56 GMT -6
GFS has the good ole warm up rain , followed by a 1-2 day cool down only to warm up and rain again
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 7, 2020 22:06:59 GMT -6
Borderline backside deformation precip (mixed bag of mostly rain/some snow) for Sat on 00z GFS. Not much and limited CAA.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 7, 2020 22:15:45 GMT -6
The best part of the 00z GFS is a shortwave which arrives Sun from the WNW post the deformation borderline precip on Sat. Plenty of CAA (maybe too much dry air) and maybe our best shot of a dusting of snow on this one run. The dry seems to eat it up this shortwave, but could have potential maybe.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2020 22:50:00 GMT -6
00z ukmet is pretty interesting Friday-Sunday.
Looks similar to the 00z Icon.
Probably a bit too warm/north for the metro, but definitely could see some backend snow with that setup
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 22:57:31 GMT -6
those are some encouraging trends across the board from the 00z suite.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 23:01:52 GMT -6
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Post by bear1 on Dec 7, 2020 23:38:10 GMT -6
Well, this certainly made my day   |
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