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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 8, 2020 20:01:00 GMT -6
Is there an echo in here?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 8, 2020 20:37:13 GMT -6
A couple absolute bombs in the 18z euro ensembles.
Wow
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Dec 8, 2020 21:05:08 GMT -6
Wc what do they show?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 8, 2020 21:17:33 GMT -6
Some of them show another low rapidly strengthening and lifting north, bringing snow to the metro early next week. One of the scenarios Chris and others have hinted at |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Dec 8, 2020 21:20:48 GMT -6
Thanks wc appreciate your expertise. Hopefully that's what happens
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 8, 2020 21:37:22 GMT -6
00z Icon holds a lot of energy back, but it gets crushed by the northern stream before it can gain enough latitude.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 8, 2020 21:50:55 GMT -6
Will just have to see if we can get that 850 low going in the panhandle of TX that the NAM is hinting at  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 8, 2020 22:37:45 GMT -6
Only one run, but the 00z GFS wasn't good for possible snow this weekend. 00z GEM looks slightly better for snow this weekend, but even better regarding snow next week.
On the 00z GEM actually the phase next week is too far south for us next week, but I like the overall Synoptic pattern on the 00z GEM. That's all that matters at this range!
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2020 0:40:25 GMT -6
Looks like MS/AL could be in for a repeat of this event if the EURO gets its way. A friendly reminder that the winter 2017-2018 left most of our region with under 5" of snow for the season IIRC. I believe it was one of COU's least snowiest at like, 1.7" or something like that. EDIT: Turns out that was 16-17, with 1.6" at COU, 17-18 was gross too though, only 3.2" (16-17 was STL's 3rd least snowiest year on record at 1.4"). |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2020 1:01:43 GMT -6
Yeah, a nice snow to the north followed by cold air pushing the next system to the south with snow. Have seen this play out too many times.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 9, 2020 7:39:16 GMT -6
Is there an echo in here? echo in here? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 9, 2020 7:49:09 GMT -6
Looks like MS/AL could be in for a repeat of this event if the EURO gets its way. A friendly reminder that the winter 2017-2018 left most of our region with under 5" of snow for the season IIRC. I believe it was one of COU's least snowiest at like, 1.7" or something like that. EDIT: Turns out that was 16-17, with 1.6" at COU, 17-18 was gross too though, only 3.2" (16-17 was STL's 3rd least snowiest year on record at 1.4"). that was one of the years i started with a comparison year, but i tossed it out because of where it stood on the solar cycle. its still haunting me in the back of my mind and just like then, we are mentioning changes coming in 2 weeks. even all the southern energy ive been watching just before christmas...each model run, it removes a little more cold air. rt now, we are down to just a pinch of cold air from the artic. just seems like when the southern activity gets active the cold air retreats. i still stand by my 22 inches for the winter, but if we dont see a substantial snow in december, or at least a favorable pattern i may punt on that. i was never impressed with those two years to begin with, i put in for 6 inches and 9 inches respectively for each of those years. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2020 10:14:42 GMT -6
Models are starting to hone in on the surface low tracking from STL to CHI. Not going to see much wintry stuff from a track like that
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2020 10:19:53 GMT -6
Models are starting to hone in on the surface low tracking from STL to CHI. Not going to see much wintry stuff from a track like that This was the track for winter 2018/2019. It was infuriating up here |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 9, 2020 10:25:37 GMT -6
Not looking good for the home team, Iowa looks to get its 3rd or 4th snow storm of the year . Really nothing looks good for the next 2-3 weeks, we will have to get real lucky and catch a storm just right in order to have any snow
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2020 10:28:29 GMT -6
Models are starting to hone in on the surface low tracking from STL to CHI. Not going to see much wintry stuff from a track like that I'm trying to figure out why models are focusing so much energy with that lead wave and not the trailing energy...the short wavelength may be partially to blame...but it looks to me like there's enough room for a secondary SLP wave to develop. The 500mb vort max track really isn't too far off to be favorable for us...but the surface cyclone stays stubbornly north and wrapped up. I'm still not convinced it will play out like that. All the energy involved here is still pretty much unsampled by RAOB. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2020 10:50:39 GMT -6
12z ggem and ukmet are interesting for Tuesday next week.
GEM makes it go poof in Kansas.
Ukmet looks more developed/robust on the surface charts.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2020 11:02:58 GMT -6
Models are starting to hone in on the surface low tracking from STL to CHI. Not going to see much wintry stuff from a track like that I'm trying to figure out why models are focusing so much energy with that lead wave and not the trailing energy...the short wavelength may be partially to blame...but it looks to me like there's enough room for a secondary SLP wave to develop. The 500mb vort max track really isn't too far off to be favorable for us...but the surface cyclone stays stubbornly north and wrapped up. I'm still not convinced it will play out like that. All the energy involved here is still pretty much unsampled by RAOB. BRTN always makes the goat calls in these situations. I still have hope. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 9, 2020 11:04:46 GMT -6
It's December 9th and I gotta be honest, I'm already tired of this pattern and winter disappointment in general. If I could allow myself to step away I would be much better off, but I keep coming back.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2020 11:14:01 GMT -6
I don't want to get hopes up for a significant snow storm...I do think the majority of the snowfall will be across IA and WI where the cold air is in place. But I think there's going to be enough trailing energy to keep precip going in the cold sector further south.
Models have pretty consistently focused too much energy out ahead lately...the old reliable "NW trend" seems anything but reliable anymore. We've seen plenty of systems trend further S within this range over the past several years...most have not worked out for us, but some have.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2020 11:18:55 GMT -6
It's December 9th and I gotta be honest, I'm already tired of this pattern and winter disappointment in general. If I could allow myself to step away I would be much better off, but I keep coming back. It's kinda like anything else in life. Live through the sting because sometimes you'll get a taste of the honey. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 9, 2020 11:22:02 GMT -6
I doubt we break 5 inches this winter
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 9, 2020 11:38:44 GMT -6
And today is beautiful. I could take this weather all winter.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2020 11:43:12 GMT -6
And today is beautiful. I could take this weather all winter. We can tell... Just waiting for the obligatory "get your shades ready" post for this weekend... |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2020 12:22:58 GMT -6
And today is beautiful. I could take this weather all winter. We can tell... Just waiting for the obligatory "get your shades ready" post for this weekend... Ah, I always wear my shades, or at least 90-95% of the time. But nope, rain is almost a certainty just not much else. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 9, 2020 12:24:34 GMT -6
I wish today’s weather was Saturday’s if it’s not gonna snow lol. I need to do yard work.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 9, 2020 13:17:21 GMT -6
Today or tomorrow i am feeling very close to the 70 plus degree temp i was expecting. Currently 66 at my house and 65 at lambert. This feels like 2012 again in terms of temps in my opinion. Also the patyer is definately not behaving like a la nina
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2020 14:00:57 GMT -6
67 at Lambert at 2pm on Dec 9.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 9, 2020 14:18:20 GMT -6
Of course we can always reach near those record high temperatures. But record low...nah
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2020 14:51:32 GMT -6
Not really that close to record high...this is a pretty typical warm spell for early December.
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