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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 9, 2020 14:53:51 GMT -6
Anyone know anything about the northern lights possibly being seen from MO tonight?
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Post by mchafin on Dec 9, 2020 14:55:24 GMT -6
I find this somewhat interesting: On the GFS, between 12z Sunday and 12z today, the Low coming in this weekend has shifted nearly 600 miles. And I'm farily confident it hasn't finished shifting.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2020 15:08:39 GMT -6
I mean I guess it could change, but this sounds so exciting, lol.
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020
Early Friday morning, the previously mentioned upper-level low will
continue eastward across the Great Plains and will begin to be
absorbed into a trough digging across the Rockies. As this is taking
place, a surface low will develop along a baroclinic zone across the
Southern Plains and begin moving northeastward toward the Middle
Mississippi Valley. As a result, cloud cover and rain chances will
increase from west to east early Friday morning and continue through
the day and into Saturday morning, with widespread rainfall likely.
This will provide a thorough soaking for the entire CWA, as rainfall
amounts around an inch appear likely.
As the surface low exits the Middle Mississippi Valley Saturday
morning, cold air will begin to filter in behind it as rain chances
dwindle. Current model runs have this colder air moving into the CWA
a little slower than previous runs, so snowfall appears to be less
likely now. However, a rain/snow mix is still possible across
portions of Shelby, Knox, and Lewis counties in MO Saturday morning.
Impacts are not anticipated, as little to no accumulation is
expected.
In the wake of this system, another shortwave digs southward across
the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, but confidence is high that
any any resulting weather will occur south of the CWA. As for the
remainder of the period, there is still much spread in the evolution
of the upper-level pattern. Guidance depicts another shortwave
traversing the Great Plains and Midwest Monday and Tuesday, but
timing, magnitude, and available moisture still vary greatly from
model to model. Ensemble guidance is currently clustering around dry
conditions and cooler, near-normal temperatures, so the
current forecast seems the most likely scenario at the moment.
Elmore
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Post by landscaper on Dec 9, 2020 15:49:07 GMT -6
I would much rather have today’s weather than dry and 45 next week. I say it every year if it’s not going to snow let it blow torch. It is awesome outside right now !
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 9, 2020 16:27:55 GMT -6
Anyone know anything about the northern lights possibly being seen from MO tonight? Missouri storm chasers say it's conditional. Bridget Mahoney posted this map to Facebook.  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 9, 2020 21:17:23 GMT -6
We may not get accumulating snow late Sat into Sun, but we could still get a dusting of snow late Sat into Sun. The 00z NAM has just enough energy to create snow bursts into early Sun!
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Dec 9, 2020 22:02:25 GMT -6
 Seward Alaska |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2020 22:37:38 GMT -6
GEM throws us a bone next Tuesday night/Wednesday AM.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2020 22:49:35 GMT -6
GEM throws us a bone next Tuesday night/Wednesday AM. The system Sunday and that system early next week need to be watched. We need to get the Friday/Saturday system out of the way first |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 9, 2020 23:02:26 GMT -6
No auroras here. Was really hoping to show the wife. I’ve seen them before and it’s definitely cool to see.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Dec 9, 2020 23:17:35 GMT -6
I'll be in Anchorage Fairbanks and Coldfoot the next week I hope to get to see the Aurora borealis on at least one occasion!!!
We arrived to single digit temperatures and snow it warmed up to above freezing started raining change back to snow and there has been well over a foot probably closer to 18 inches today and there is more coming ❄️
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 10, 2020 6:42:14 GMT -6
Can we lock in the GFS for Christmas Day please?
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 10, 2020 6:45:35 GMT -6
Season greetings everyone.
I’m not at all jazzed about snow potential until later in the month. Looking at just temperature trends, it is nice to see the overall mean gradually reducing as opposed to the sudden drops witnessed over the last few years. That should pave the way for sustained cold and perhaps snow as we head into the snow potential season.
I for one am rooting for a soaker rain this weekend. We need it if we want any chance at snow this year.
Teleconnections are trending in the right directions for at least the cold to be nearby, moisture is still up in the air though. I like where we are sitting
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 10, 2020 7:22:56 GMT -6
I'll be in Anchorage Fairbanks and Coldfoot the next week I hope to get to see the Aurora borealis on at least one occasion!!! We arrived to single digit temperatures and snow it warmed up to above freezing started raining change back to snow and there has been well over a foot probably closer to 18 inches today and there is more coming ❄️ You'll see plenty of snow (and cold) by the time you get to Fairbanks. I follow a family on You Tube that live in North Pole, just southeast of Fairbanks. It's been consistently zero or below for weeks with more than a foot of snow on the ground since Halloween. They also get precious few hours of daylight and it's dark by 3 pm |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2020 8:15:55 GMT -6
Im going with sunny and 74 today. Temps have been over achieving
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2020 8:39:32 GMT -6
Pretty good run of the 12z nam if you want to see some light snow in the metro this weekend
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2020 9:00:25 GMT -6
Im going with sunny and 74 today. Temps have been over achieving Why not 80? Go big or go home! |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 10, 2020 9:16:29 GMT -6
if i were to base off 06 gfs, that model has several chances of light snow and snow showers starting next week and taking us into fantasy period. so far, nothing too big verbatim. point being when a model depicts that many chances, that shld indicate a favorable pattern for at least one accumulating event. i wldnt point that out, except this is not the first time for this period. lets see if we start to see some consensus now.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2020 9:20:34 GMT -6
No not 80. But i firmly back my 74. We will see its jist fun to try.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 10, 2020 9:33:12 GMT -6
No not 80. But i firmly back my 74. We will see its jist fun to try. You’d be fun to go Vegas with! I think some may come close to 70 but I don’t think we have enough daylight to hit 74. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2020 9:39:46 GMT -6
Pretty good run of the 12z nam if you want to see some light snow in the metro this weekend Let's keep that system Sunday trending further north and stronger |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 10, 2020 9:42:39 GMT -6
Surprised how far south precip falls with low moving almost laterally.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2020 9:45:26 GMT -6
Im going with sunny and 74 today. Temps have been over achieving Why not 80? Go big or go home! Eh, to be fair, he did say 70 was a real possibility yesterday while you and others dismissed it totally saying 60 was about tops. It hit 68 |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 10, 2020 9:56:42 GMT -6
Anyone want to come up here for a 2-4 incher? We have 2 spare beds...
At first it was a small chance of snow, then it was supposed to go south, now we are in the isolated 4+ area. Was trying to get through December before putting on the snow tires, now I'm getting them on tomorrow morning since I have to work early Saturday morning.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2020 10:07:39 GMT -6
GFS has edged north with the Sunday evening system. Enough to get my attention down here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2020 11:19:25 GMT -6
Why not 80? Go big or go home! Eh, to be fair, he did say 70 was a real possibility yesterday while you and others dismissed it totally saying 60 was about tops. It hit 68 I never said any of that, lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2020 11:29:01 GMT -6
Models are starting to pick up on an enhanced band of Fgen as the secondary shortwave digs across the region and begins to lift through...they are developing a pretty stout low/mid-level trof in the cold sector. It's looking more likely that a band of snow will break out along and north of 70 Saturday afternoon/evening.
Sunday also bears close watching as the next shortwave digs in.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2020 11:34:04 GMT -6
Models are starting to pick up on an enhanced band of Fgen as the secondary shortwave digs across the region and begins to lift through...they are developing a pretty stout low/mid-level trof in the cold sector. It's looking more likely that a band of snow will break out along and north of 70 Saturday afternoon/evening. Sunday also bears close watching as the next shortwave digs in. Any opinion on the energy moving through around Tuesday? Looks pretty good and then poof on some models...I’m assuming it gets sheared out |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2020 11:39:08 GMT -6
imgur.com/Vjb43tp.pngThis is for someone who's got more experience... eyeing the WRF run and noticing this trough axis beginning to protrude in the last few frames. Is that helping sustain that area of deformation at all? Does it help the precip field expand further south? EDIT: I think BRTN just answered my question a few posts back woops.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2020 11:42:10 GMT -6
Models are starting to pick up on an enhanced band of Fgen as the secondary shortwave digs across the region and begins to lift through...they are developing a pretty stout low/mid-level trof in the cold sector. It's looking more likely that a band of snow will break out along and north of 70 Saturday evening. Sunday also bears close watching as the next shortwave digs in. Any opinion on the energy moving through around Tuesday? Looks pretty good and then poof on some models...I’m assuming it gets sheared out I think that's worth watching...there's often a storm of interest around the 15th it seems like. But let's get the first two systems out of the way before giving too much interest with that one. It's looking more likely that parts of the region could get the ground covered this weekend. But we'll see how it continues to trend. I'll feel a lot better about it if that vort max comes in another ~50-75mi south...and that's still very possible. And I have a suspicion that the shortwave coming through Sunday will trend a bit further north. |
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