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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2020 12:03:47 GMT -6
Any opinion on the energy moving through around Tuesday? Looks pretty good and then poof on some models...I’m assuming it gets sheared out I think that's worth watching...there's often a storm of interest around the 15th it seems like. But let's get the first two systems out of the way before giving too much interest with that one. It's looking more likely that parts of the region could get the ground covered this weekend. But we'll see how it continues to trend. I'll feel a lot better about it if that vort max comes in another ~50-75mi south...and that's still very possible. And I have a suspicion that the shortwave coming through Sunday will trend a bit further north. As always, appreciate the insight |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 10, 2020 12:05:47 GMT -6
 Seward Alaska That's going to be a problem for outside dining. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2020 12:08:20 GMT -6
Eh, to be fair, he did say 70 was a real possibility yesterday while you and others dismissed it totally saying 60 was about tops. It hit 68 I never said any of that, lol my bad, it was just "others" |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2020 12:12:33 GMT -6
Ill go to vegas
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2020 12:14:49 GMT -6
Seward Alaska That's going to be a problem for outside dining. That would make a mess of those silly tents... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2020 12:21:03 GMT -6
Euro is a good bit stronger and further north with the Sunday afternoon system as well...beautiful area of snow in OK, KS, into SWMO then poof. Certainly an improvement, just need to keep it going.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2020 12:24:16 GMT -6
About half of the 06z euro ensembles brought snow to parts of the area on Sunday. The 12z EPS should be interesting to see
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2020 12:39:55 GMT -6
Euro also brings some light snow to the area Tuesday night. That system then goes on to become a monster nor’easter
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2020 13:23:14 GMT -6
👀👀
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2020 13:31:35 GMT -6
It'll be east of here most likely next week. We may get the very beginning a of it with flurries or snow showers before it blows up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2020 13:40:20 GMT -6
I dunno...looks like a pretty classic Miller B storm to me. Model consensus takes the mid-level system pretty much right through our wheelhouse. Of course, that could change. But the overall pattern continues to look pretty supportive.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2020 15:40:28 GMT -6
Some kind of Arctic 'Dump' is being foreseen by the CFS 768 model for a couple runs now around New Year's into the first full week of January. Likely represents our best chance of 'solid' Winter weather until later February or March assuming some kind of SSW Event occurs in or about mid to late February.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2020 15:50:02 GMT -6
I don't know about any dumps... But it does look like an easterly component of the wind slowed down KSTL's run at 74 this afternoon. Looks like 65 will be the best ya'll can do. Seems like we touched 70 here for a brief moment around 3pm here at KCOU.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2020 15:50:18 GMT -6
This afternoon's disco not enthused about Sunday or Tuesday at all.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2020 15:55:05 GMT -6
Models are forecasting a moderate burst of westerlies above 50mb that attempts to weaken the vortex...the EURO elongates and almost splits it with a lobe extending deeper into NA. That signals a disruptive event that could unfold around NYD if there's a reflection in the trop.
Luckily, we're already seeing a negative trend in the the AO. If we can get the pattern to flip in the EPAC/GoA, it could get pretty nasty during the core of the winter.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2020 18:37:53 GMT -6
This afternoon's disco not enthused about Sunday or Tuesday at all. Confidence seems high that something will happen between now and then! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2020 20:48:15 GMT -6
Snow to the north than snow to the south on the NAM. Classic
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Post by landscaper on Dec 10, 2020 21:00:50 GMT -6
Yep...
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2020 21:11:33 GMT -6
Im ok with that split all but far northern and far southern mo are the only spots that get snow its not just like st.louis is the inly spot missing out. So is como and kc so we all are in it together lol
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 10, 2020 21:54:24 GMT -6
00z GFS is south of the metro with the Sun system.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 10, 2020 22:06:29 GMT -6
The Tues/Wed system next week (15-16th) may bring the most potential to our area!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2020 22:19:21 GMT -6
lookin' like a whoooooole lotta nothin'
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 10, 2020 22:24:50 GMT -6
lookin' like a whoooooole lotta nothin' Still think we could see a dusting late Sat! Haha true. Yeah nothing that big or impressive...who knows though. Forecasting these shortwaves is a pain in the ! BACKSIDE !! |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2020 23:08:24 GMT -6
GEM crushes the midweek storm out of existence
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Post by landscaper on Dec 10, 2020 23:29:57 GMT -6
Yes unfortunately not much in the next ten days, the old two more weeks. Maybe around Christmas.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2020 23:34:06 GMT -6
I am holding firm, i couks see our first measurable snow maybe around jan 10th. Until then average to warm with rains
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 10, 2020 23:49:30 GMT -6
What happened to record warm December?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 11, 2020 7:09:12 GMT -6
average to warm is a big change from your earlier posts. you have not acknowledged anything to cause you to flipflop. what are you seeing other than hunch to cause you to back off from your earlier thoughts?
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 11, 2020 7:11:21 GMT -6
Hey we still had 2 days near 70
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 11, 2020 7:31:39 GMT -6
2 days of upper 60s out of 31 days haha! Not uncommon in Dec. Every since I've followed weather (10-12 yrs not that long compare to others on here), it seems more times than not we see 60s one day every Dec (sometimes more, but my mind could be foggy). 🤷♂️
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