|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 11, 2020 20:58:11 GMT -6
The last couple runs of the NAM the 500 jet streak coming into the northern plains has been a bit steeper- helps pull it north. Another degree or two steeper would make it interesting
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 11, 2020 21:07:56 GMT -6
The NAM usually does a decent job of picking up on trends in this time frame. In years past it was good It was good with that 36-48 hour shift
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2020 21:57:53 GMT -6
Gfs a little further north too Sunday. Would that seriously be rain with surface temps around 34 at onset and temps aloft cold enough? At night, in mid December? That would be cruel.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2020 22:01:15 GMT -6
Gfs a little further north too Sunday. Would that seriously be rain with surface temps around 34 at onset and temps aloft cold enough? At night, in mid December? That would be cruel. Ever since they “upgraded” the GFS it’s been horrible in dynamic cooling situations with borderline surface temps. Looking at the soundings Sunday that’s 100% snow |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2020 22:07:52 GMT -6
00z gfs still looks interesting Tuesday/Wednesday
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 22:32:42 GMT -6
seems like our kiss of death would be the bone-dry n'easterly flow off of that Quebec high. That's a steep layer of subsidence to overcome. i.imgur.com/uckVgX6.png |
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Dec 12, 2020 7:05:24 GMT -6
The morning disco was a bit more encouraging for the middle of next week.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2020 8:37:45 GMT -6
The 12z NAM is pretty robust for Sunday night to our south. The shortwave is quite impressive. However, eyeballing the track of the 850/500mb features leads me to believe QPF placement may be a tad far north on model output...but not by more than a county. Still, some light accumulating snow seems like a decent possibility over the southern most tier of counties...Dent (Salem)...to Madison County MO (Fredericktown).
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2020 9:01:39 GMT -6
I’ll take it! Looking better with each run now.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 9:11:06 GMT -6
I’ll take it! Looking better with each run now. 9z SREF is solid in your neck of the woods. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2020 9:22:55 GMT -6
I’ll take it! Looking better with each run now. 9z SREF is solid in your neck of the woods. Can you post? |
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 12, 2020 9:24:21 GMT -6
I have already seen snow maps on Facebook today showing jeffco in 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow night.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2020 9:41:28 GMT -6
I have already seen snow maps on Facebook today showing jeffco in 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow night. Im not even sure snow will make it that far north. |
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 12, 2020 9:42:02 GMT -6
I will be riding the Sunday system out from beautiful Lake Taneycomo! Looks like I got a pretty good chance at seeing my first snowfall of the season.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2020 9:59:00 GMT -6
OKC had the big ice storm in late OCT, expecting 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow, maybe more snow Tuesday. I've yet to see a flake lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:04:38 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:06:14 GMT -6
I dunno about STL folks, that's a bit of a closer call, but we're not getting more than a trace here in central MO over the next 7 days.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2020 10:12:14 GMT -6
OKC had the big ice storm in late OCT, expecting 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow, maybe more snow Tuesday. I've yet to see a flake lol. I have a nice cold rain in Chicago this morning. Mid December and can’t even get snow this far north. Sucks |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 12, 2020 10:12:23 GMT -6
Pretty much stinks all around at this point
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2020 10:16:02 GMT -6
But hey. at least the northeast will get their *first* historical snowstorm of the winter next week.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:17:21 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Dec 12, 2020 10:23:42 GMT -6
NYC gets a hell of snow storm on that GFS run...wow.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2020 10:24:41 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:27:57 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:29:20 GMT -6
Although to be fair, about 2-4 inches of that will be the "mini nor'easter" they get from junk rolling through our area tomorrow night. So they get 1 accumulating snow event, and then an entire STL's winter worth of snow events for the next one.
I want to puke.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2020 10:30:15 GMT -6
We call that a 3-year STL total storm right there |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2020 10:33:07 GMT -6
In unrelated news, I have decided to travel to NYC later this upcoming week
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 11:59:35 GMT -6
UKMET not completely hopeless Tuesday.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 12, 2020 12:07:02 GMT -6
Hey! They were due!  |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 12, 2020 12:49:27 GMT -6
And since it's NYC we'll hear about it endlessly from the national media.
|
|
