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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 8:03:21 GMT -6
Unfortunately the trends overnight were not good. Unless something changes this looks like mostly rain with a little ice Thursday night before more rain . Bummer
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Dec 28, 2020 8:06:36 GMT -6
Thanks for your technical analysis. I think the non-technical nature was the point |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 28, 2020 8:22:37 GMT -6
Thanks for your technical analysis. I think the non-technical nature was the point The broadcast business has the challenge of bridging the divide between technical and non-technical. It is rarely easy  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2020 8:25:44 GMT -6
No reason to jump ship at this point...the 00z GEM and it's ensembles still looked very supportive for backside snow and ice. Still a lot to sort out...
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 8:28:05 GMT -6
Yep, the Gem verses the world right now , hopefully it is on to something
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Dec 28, 2020 8:56:36 GMT -6
I think the non-technical nature was the point The broadcast business has the challenge of bridging the divide between technical and non-technical. It is rarely easy And we know the guy that’s the best at that. I’ll leave the technical side to the expert! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2020 9:02:36 GMT -6
Yep, the Gem verses the world right now , hopefully it is on to something The GEM seems to have performed the best so far with this system...let's see how it continues to trend. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 28, 2020 9:05:04 GMT -6
No reason to jump ship at this point...the 00z GEM and it's ensembles still looked very supportive for backside snow and ice. Still a lot to sort out... yeah, obviously a storm of interest still. The line of demarcation I had in mind yesterday were consistent with what Chris said this morning. The struggle is attempting to provide amounts of each, but at this lead time, that is a dart throw. I hate that the public demands hair splitting details on storm systems like this in this part of the country. Now that Chris mentioned it, I had recall him using that MX rule of thumb before. After that freezing drizzle event several years ago in December, when people were stranded in Chesterfield into St. Charles County, that has changed how I react to potential icing. This is not that kind of set up, but the ice potential is there nonetheless. As for rain potential, some places in AR, are looking at 6 inches of rain for potential. It would be hard to dismiss the heavy rain threat in some parts of the bi-state as well, depending on the path of the storm system. Some rather intense rainfall rates not out of the question, as far as I'm concerned. Back end snow should be light around here, but western MO will be shoveling. Longer ranges do hold promise of continued active wx pattern. Not as much cold air in place longer range, but the NAO still forecasted to be negative through the first week in January, which makes me think cold air is being underestimated. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 9:09:39 GMT -6
Well the 06z EPS and GEFS are west and ugly
This ones not over but the fat lady is warmed up and ready to go
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Dec 28, 2020 9:14:34 GMT -6
Is system getting sampled this morning or still off shore
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2020 9:22:17 GMT -6
Well the ICON takes the low into central OK so there's that lol. Good grief.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 9:24:08 GMT -6
Icon is beyond rough, the low is from Oklahoma going north
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 9:55:58 GMT -6
Well that was fun while it lasted
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2020 9:56:54 GMT -6
Well if the 12z gfs didn't just put the nail in the coffin for you I don't know what will. We are honestly looking at a small flooding threat at this point.
Props to the ICON - it was the first to focus on the secondary development and also lead the way with the big western shift.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 9:59:11 GMT -6
I hope Iowa enjoys 2 major ice and snowstorms in the same week. Jeez
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 28, 2020 10:06:58 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 28, 2020 10:10:11 GMT -6
12z NAM still looks interesting at 84hrs.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 28, 2020 10:14:38 GMT -6
Ya it does look like most models reverted back west for the winter weather like they were showing a couple of days ago. But this thing is far from over. I'd say we got until at least tomorrow's 00z run to stay afloat.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2020 10:18:40 GMT -6
Ya it does look like most models reverted back west for the winter weather like they were showing a couple of days ago. But this thing is far from over. I'd say we got until at least tomorrow's 00z run to stay afloat. It's more likely you'll need a small watercraft to stay "afloat." |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 10:20:12 GMT -6
Wow that stinks big time at this point we might not see a flake or any winter weather, maybe a 3-6 hour window of freezing rain (at 30-32) Thursday night, then just a boatload of rain. Really there’s no cold air insight after this storm. It looks like we’re mid month maybe before some more cold air works in.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 10:23:55 GMT -6
Gem looks to hold its weaker more southern route. It’s every model vs the gem. I really expected it to cave today .
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2020 10:24:21 GMT -6
If there's one given in St. Louis weather, it's that you can always count on flooding rainfall to verify in the winter.
This is getting old...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2020 10:25:03 GMT -6
Gem looks to hold its weaker more southern route. It’s every model vs the gem. I really expected it to cave today . I'm not giving up until the GEM caves... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 10:25:44 GMT -6
GEFS looks great if you're in KC or Iowa
In reality there's still plenty of time for models to shift back east, but everything at this point suggest this thing going west
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 28, 2020 10:25:48 GMT -6
There is a pretty significant jog west on the 12Z GEFS. All is not lost but the chances of an ideal track at this point are dwindling. Anyway, at the end of the day a forecast has to be made and the highest probability call at this point is a mostly rain event.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 28, 2020 10:31:29 GMT -6
GEFS looks great if you're in KC or Iowa In reality there's still plenty of time for models to shift back east, but everything at this point suggest this thing going west Columbia is even too far east eh on the current track? |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 28, 2020 10:44:48 GMT -6
Yep if you believe the 12z GEM then there's still some hope! But it it's even further NW bringing the surface low just SE of STL near Carbondale IL. It's frustrating to see such a big shift west just from 00z runs last night to 06z and 12z runs today. The time of the year when there's the least amount of solar insolation, but we still get rain.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 28, 2020 10:48:24 GMT -6
If there's one given in St. Louis weather, it's that you can always count on flooding rainfall to verify in the winter. This is getting old... Ain’t this the truth. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 28, 2020 10:50:46 GMT -6
It’s hard to not get frustrated. Even though we all know this isn’t the place to live if you want 30+ every winter. But still...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 10:52:38 GMT -6
Ukie is still west
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