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Post by joshofstl on Dec 30, 2020 16:45:02 GMT -6
Pretty dry here in Hazelwood. The rain with occasional snow let up a couple of hours ago and it's been pretty much nothing ever since.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 30, 2020 16:47:59 GMT -6
Finally getting some flakes down here in ol Marissa
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 18:50:53 GMT -6
Anyone see the 18z euro and ice output?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 18:57:11 GMT -6
Anyone see the 18z euro and ice output? It looked pretty similar to the 12z run. I don’t have ice accumulation charts for the 18z runs |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 30, 2020 19:13:23 GMT -6
I see Dawn Wells AKA "Mary Ann" passed away. There goes another piece of some great childhood memories. Not sure if anyone has mentioned it....2020 sucks.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2020 19:22:01 GMT -6
Yeah, lots of famous people have died this year, many from covid like Dawn Wells. This has certainly been a year to forget, just like our winter.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 30, 2020 19:29:30 GMT -6
We are on like a 4 or 5 year bad streak down here .... it’s been so long we have a generation of kids that don’t know how to build a snowman lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 19:35:30 GMT -6
00z HRRR is awfully icy at first glance
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 19:40:30 GMT -6
Big time , even more than earlier
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2020 19:43:30 GMT -6
Yeah, I know the HRRR has thermal issues, but it has temps around 30 31 with like 8 hours of ice.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 19:44:49 GMT -6
Hrrr is way south and cold. Looks like it might even swing the deformation zone snow through here
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 19:58:25 GMT -6
Sounding over the metro from the hrrr when it really gets cranking  |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 19:59:45 GMT -6
Is that a good sounding for frozen precipitation
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 30, 2020 20:02:35 GMT -6
Is that a good sounding for frozen precipitation Classic FRZR sounding. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 20:06:25 GMT -6
So far really the GFS and NAM are the two warmest models
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2020 20:11:26 GMT -6
NAM doesn't even have precip starting until 3-4 am.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 20:14:00 GMT -6
NAM doesn't even have precip starting until 3-4 am. Also much warmer aloft than the hrrr |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 20:17:03 GMT -6
Yes NAM is not good
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2020 20:18:43 GMT -6
The hrrr at 48 hours is like the nam at 84 hours, fun to look at, but unreliable
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2020 20:19:04 GMT -6
It moves the low se of here but way warm. Maybe an hour of freezing rain..maybe.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2020 20:26:07 GMT -6
At hour 48 on the nam there looks to be two distinct lows. One passing over STL and the other on the Kentucky/Indiana border.
I wonder if this is causing some difficulties for the models
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 20:27:55 GMT -6
NAM scours out that surface cold air like nobody’s business, even with a stiff NE wind. Probably some latent heat release from the warm layer above
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 20:34:17 GMT -6
I think it has to do with the weakening of the low and maybe a transfer of energy most of the models now all have the low south east of St. Louis around cape. If this plays out like this, the gem and RGEM smoked the other models and their ensembles. If you go back two days ago most models and eps /gefs had the low 990-995 mb out in western mo going north with us warming into the upper 40s and low 50’s.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 20:37:57 GMT -6
The def zone is basically touching the northern counties on the NAM and hrrr . If we could get a little further south track we might catch some def zone snow Friday evening
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 20:50:34 GMT -6
I think its pretty likely the NAM is trying to scour out that low level cold too quickly. At night and with a strong NE wind it's going to pretty tough to do much warming. Really need to keep an eye on the strength of the warm layer above.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 21:10:25 GMT -6
Icon continues its cold and icy scenario. One thing I notice is the models are all wearing the low as it approaches, the icon keeps the low down in Arkansas. Temps around 30
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 30, 2020 21:16:21 GMT -6
My NWS forecast has now changed from freezing rain and sleet tomorrow night with a low of 31 to now just rain and a low of 32 ..... how is this possible with the models coming in further south east and colder...... am I missing something here?
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 21:18:42 GMT -6
RGEM would be a beefy little ice storm, probably overdone but wow , temps in upper 20’s with a lot of moisture keeps the low well south’s d east
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 30, 2020 21:19:30 GMT -6
I see Dawn Wells AKA "Mary Ann" passed away. There goes another piece of some great childhood memories. Not sure if anyone has mentioned it....2020 sucks. She was 83 and they reported her as dying from Covid. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 30, 2020 21:21:41 GMT -6
We may struggle to keep temps below freezing after the onset due to the warm raindrops dragging the warmth down. I would be most concerned at the onset, but it seems after midnight, we should be good mostly.
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