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Post by amstilost on Feb 13, 2021 20:42:37 GMT -6
After looking at 500mb vort the SE Ridge actually looks a little weaker, but the vort looks better. looks better at hr 48 though. I would think it would jog more north/northeast from the looks of hr 48. Hopefully this becomes a trend with the other models.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 20:43:06 GMT -6
This is how all snow forecasts should be done.  I wrote them when they posted on twitter. Said I really like that. It will hopefully keep folks for waying heavily on those higher numbers if they see a % of the chance of 6+ happening. I think alot of us focus on the high side even though we all know better. Like if they say 2-4 or 3-6. Most of us see 4 and 6 inches. So the general public is the same. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 20:44:29 GMT -6
00z NBM had 4-5 inches across the area
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 13, 2021 20:51:38 GMT -6
The 00z NAM looks great. A later start time, overnight Sun for the bulk. Definitely more organized. More potential for 4-6" that run! Even tho it definitely looked much better at H5. The well defined vorticity love over the Texas/Oklahoma region that is almost closed off at times starts to weaken as it moves towards Arkansas/Missouri and ends up shearing out. While at the bottom of the trough a much more powerful vorticity takes over. On top of that the kuchera ratios average like 12-1 ending with 15-1. In the end it only prints out 0.25-0.30" qpf closer to 0.20" along 70 and 3-5" of snow. I really thought it was going to pop off more. I do like how consolidated the snow field is. The HIRES nam has 25-1 ratios   Heck yeah. Now that's a noteworthy shortwave. Plently of cyclonic vorticity being advected toward our Region! At 500mb the flow looks decent for a thump for wave 2...northwest trend hopefully is our friend. |
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bgff
Weather Weenie
Location: Hillsboro, MO
Posts: 43 
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Post by bgff on Feb 13, 2021 20:55:05 GMT -6
This is how all snow forecasts should be done. They have been doing this for a while, but you have to go to the Daily Situational Report to find the graphics, which is on the NWS STL main page, upper right hand corner. It is good information |
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Post by birddog on Feb 13, 2021 21:03:56 GMT -6
Not sure where the low temp will end up by AM, but I am showing 0.8° at 2100 WC -11°
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Post by Mr Snowplow on Feb 13, 2021 21:09:01 GMT -6
What kind of start time are we looking at for Sunday?
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 13, 2021 21:11:15 GMT -6
This is how all snow forecasts should be done. They have been doing this for a while, but you have to go to the Daily Situational Report to find the graphics, which is on the NWS STL main page, upper right hand corner. It is good information !AccuNotWx! does this also under Wintercast feature. Thought it was very cool. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 21:16:02 GMT -6
RGEM looks good. Kuchera map is showing 5-7” across the area
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2021 21:20:04 GMT -6
It also looks pretty nice for the beginning of the second storm Wednesday
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 21:25:00 GMT -6
The Hires models are beefier than earlier.   |
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Post by jeepers on Feb 13, 2021 21:29:12 GMT -6
5 degrees
And the Blues defense is killing me.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2021 21:35:27 GMT -6
I have the goose egg.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2021 21:37:19 GMT -6
Which matches well with moscow mills at near goose egg  |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 13, 2021 21:40:31 GMT -6
Our youngest goes to Murray St, and we have family right across the border in Paris, TN. They're likely going to get slammed, but they're skewts are also REALLY close to being an epic amount of sleet.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 13, 2021 21:40:48 GMT -6
Down to 5 here as well.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Feb 13, 2021 21:49:08 GMT -6
Hoffman 🏒 5 degrees And the Blues defense is killing me. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 13, 2021 21:55:19 GMT -6
V16 gets an A for consistency.
Really hope to give it an A for accuracy come weeks end.
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Post by jeepers on Feb 13, 2021 21:57:15 GMT -6
Hoffman 🏒 5 degrees And the Blues defense is killing me. Finally!! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 21:59:26 GMT -6
V16 gets an A for consistency. Really hope to give it an A for accuracy come weeks end. Let's hope the other models trend towards it. The NAM definitely did
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Feb 13, 2021 22:03:27 GMT -6
does it still show big snow on Wednesday?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 22:10:32 GMT -6
does it still show big snow on Wednesday? Ya both it and the old GFS are showing a high end winter storm |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Feb 13, 2021 22:12:28 GMT -6
Thanks let’s hope they are correct
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 13, 2021 22:16:00 GMT -6
does it still show big snow on Wednesday? Ya both it and the old GFS are showing a high end winter storm Would really like to see the UKM/ECM get a board tonight too. Snow on snow on snow would really turn this Winter around for a lot us. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2021 22:18:35 GMT -6
I can’t imagine them not, the gem still looks good for Wednesday and Thursday, not as juicy as gfs models but decent. I bet you see a shift tonight or tomorrow towards more of a system later in the week on the Euro and Ukmet
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 22:19:25 GMT -6
Ya both it and the old GFS are showing a high end winter storm Would really like to see the UKM/ECM get a board tonight too. Snow on snow on snow would really turn this Winter around for a lot us. from your lips to Ma Nature's A$$ |
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Post by packrat on Feb 13, 2021 22:25:54 GMT -6
Our youngest goes to Murray St, and we have family right across the border in Paris, TN. They're likely going to get slammed, but they're skewts are also REALLY close to being an epic amount of sleet. My daughter goes to Bellarmine in Louisville. Just saw on the Fox 2 broadcast that Futurecast printed 16” for them. They might not have school for a week. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 22:31:33 GMT -6
It’s more likely that the gfs and gfsv16 cave to the euro in the next 24 hours.
However, I will note that there were more good 18z euro ensembles compared to 12z euro ensembles so it could go the other way. It’s just a lower probability play.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 22:44:09 GMT -6
There were definitely some EPS members in the 12z suite on board for another accumulating snow mid week
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 13, 2021 22:44:12 GMT -6
GEM is in the foot plus club with the GFSv16
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