bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Feb 13, 2021 22:45:19 GMT -6
Let’s hope the king submits to the GFS
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 22:53:48 GMT -6
00z ukmet is good for a general 0.20-0.25 of QPF over the next 48 hours.
With expected ratios that should be a general 3-5 inches with isolated 6+
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 22:59:00 GMT -6
Ukmet also has 0.1-0.25 of QPF increasing from north to south across the metro for the midweek storm.
It looks nothing like the gfs or ggem, but it’s something. Ratios should be returning closer to normal by then, so more of a 2-4 inch type storm
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2021 23:54:34 GMT -6
Be interesting the flakeage tomorrow night... I'm guessing a lot of dime sized flakes.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 0:02:42 GMT -6
Don’t look now but I think the Euro is joining team GFSv16 for Monday
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Feb 14, 2021 0:07:22 GMT -6
How does it look for the Wednesday system
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 0:07:55 GMT -6
The GFSv16 has a new teammate in the Euro  |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 14, 2021 0:10:21 GMT -6
Euro came in hot. Not GFSV16 hot though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 0:10:47 GMT -6
Last few runs of the euro are looking much better with wave 2 Monday. Strongly trending toward the v16  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 14, 2021 0:11:26 GMT -6
Well this escalated quickly lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 0:13:38 GMT -6
Euro came in hot. Not GFSV16 hot though. QPF wise they are very close with the GFSv16 having slightly more. That was a big QPF jump for the euro. The metro went from 0.2" on the 12z run to 0.4" on this run. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 14, 2021 0:15:37 GMT -6
Euro came in hot. Not GFSV16 hot though. QPF wise they are very close with the GFSv16 having slightly more. That was a big QPF jump for the euro. The metro went from 0.2" on the 12z run to 0.4" on this run. Yup your right. I was just looking at that. This would be so awesome if V16 can win this storm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 0:24:18 GMT -6
And the euro just caved to the GFSv16 with the midweek system lol
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 14, 2021 0:26:53 GMT -6
And the euro just caved to the GFSv16 with the midweek system lol Big jump...150nm further north with the 850mb low! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 14, 2021 0:27:49 GMT -6
And the euro just caved to the GFSv16 with the midweek system lol Euro was becoming the lone holdout for the midweek storm. Icon and Canadian joined both gfs’s too. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 1:03:14 GMT -6
The 00z EPS QPF for Monday has shifted notably NW of the 12z run. In the metro, the mean QPF went from 0.25" on the 12z run to 0.35" on tonight run
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Post by weatherj on Feb 14, 2021 1:07:34 GMT -6
It looks like models are really starting to blend out the NW to SE gradient of less snow vs. more snow. It also looks like the NW edge (though no model captures it exactly as we know) is starting to get resolved a bit as well. Earlier runs were a bit choppy/messy with areas of higher totals and lower totals blotched all over. Now it looks much smoother across the area and the entire metro gets a good storm.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Feb 14, 2021 1:17:25 GMT -6
What does Wednesday storm look like now
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 14, 2021 1:20:22 GMT -6
What does Wednesday storm look like now Let's just say... we are in play. |
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Post by weatherj on Feb 14, 2021 1:58:36 GMT -6
Quick glance at the data... I am not focusing much on surface placement and more in 500/700 and 850. Big picture stuff. First.. the 500mb is flat weird looking. The PV looks desperate to be let out of a cage up there in canada...getting squished on both sides. The strong zonal flow in the southern branch never lets it completely release...interesting. Just by tracking the 500mb wave... the entire area will see significant snow. And immediately in advance of the vort...which on the 12z NAM is actually a little north of our wheelhouse.. there should be some impressive snow. The ratio game works sometimes... but not always because if the lift is in the wrong thermal layer...or winds are too strong... your flake size goes down. So you have to look at the microphysics there. We lose zero snow to melting, the track at 500mb is pretty darn good... we are looking at at least a 3-6 snow...in the first system. The southeast ridge shows signs of life... so I expect the low levels will correct more northwesterly with time. Maybe not a lot. But with the vort max tracking to near STL on the 12z NAM...the surface is sure to correct more to that than the other way around. Tonight's runs may be trending towards what this man said a day and a half ago.....especially with the second wave seemingly adjusting NW. If so, great call Chris. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 2:24:06 GMT -6
06z NAM Massive win for the GFSv16 if these trends hold  |
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Post by weatherj on Feb 14, 2021 2:27:38 GMT -6
06z NAM Massive win for the GFSv16 if these trends hold Gorgeous..is that assuming 15:1 ratios? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 2:31:20 GMT -6
06z NAM Massive win for the GFSv16 if these trends hold Gorgeous..is that assuming 15:1 ratios? That's the positive snow depth change product. Basically it's the models best guess to how much new snow accumulated on the ground to that point
The 06z Hi Res NAM has also joined the party
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 14, 2021 2:38:40 GMT -6
Looking like a significant snow for us... surprised it's so quiet on here.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 14, 2021 2:39:23 GMT -6
I see, thank you. It's great to see the NAM on both versions jump on board too.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 14, 2021 2:42:42 GMT -6
Let's see if the old 6z GFS can start ramping up now too. I really doubt it will be as good as the v16 or the NAM, but any change to wetter is going to show the overall trend.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Feb 14, 2021 3:08:25 GMT -6
Will the NWS upgrade to Winter Storm Warning? The forecasts have been 2-5 or 3-6 overall. Is something changing? 2nd wave? Overall totals? Thank You all!
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Post by bororug on Feb 14, 2021 3:39:19 GMT -6
Love these trends! Bring it on!
Just hit 0 just SW of Desoto.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 3:51:43 GMT -6
Question/fun fact. When was the last time we were in the negative territory and had a good snow? Was it all the way back in 2014??
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 14, 2021 3:53:59 GMT -6
Question/fun fact. When was the last time we were in the negative territory and had a good snow? Was it all the way back in 2014?? I know it was cold for that one but I don’t remember if it was as cold as we are expecting for this system. |
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