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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 10:06:04 GMT -6
yep 31 inches in cape lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 10:06:10 GMT -6
At least the snow minimum is about 3 inches instead of 1 this time. This is a cruel joke on the models. Just infuriating. I'm pretty damn sick of seeing these minima show up over the same area..all the time. And more times than not..it actually happens that way.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 12, 2022 10:08:14 GMT -6
At least the snow minimum is about 3 inches instead of 1 this time. This is a cruel joke on the models. Just infuriating. I'm pretty damn sick of seeing these minima show up over the same area..all the time. And more times than not..it actually happens that way. Yep. This will be fun but at the same time I will not be happy if someone 75 miles SW of me gets a foot+ and I get 3”. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 10:19:19 GMT -6
The end of the 51 hour rap is way north, however it is out of its reliability window
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 12, 2022 10:19:40 GMT -6
So what does this have a chance to be a big snow in the immediate stlouis area. I keep reading all the posts and not sure what to expect. Sounds like going to miss to the south
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 10:20:56 GMT -6
Go ahead and print the T-shirts with this one  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 10:22:12 GMT -6
Definitely a continued SW trend with the 12z NAM...00z run had the 700mb center roughly over KC at 12z SAT...the 12z run has it roughly over OKC and still sliding SE. Gonna be tough for it to gain enough latitude for us.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 10:23:20 GMT -6
the warm air advection will be a good hit though, as well as the gefs looks great to me.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 12, 2022 10:25:28 GMT -6
Wait, are we sure NCEP was running the GFS and not the DGEX?
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2022 10:32:26 GMT -6
Wait, are we sure NCEP was running the GFS and not the DGEX? Haha those are some DGEX like numbers on the 12z GFS south of the STL metro! |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 12, 2022 10:33:47 GMT -6
We haven’t seen a storm similar to this in a while. But, I do recall a few winters (maybe 2010, 2011) where we had a pattern of clippers that liked to blend with a southern system like this and when initially sampled, always had a southern 50-100 mile bias until ~24 hours out. Then, just like clockwork, almost every model locked into a northern shift placing STL in the bullseye. This storm looks very reminiscent of a few I remember during that time ~10-12 years ago.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 12, 2022 10:36:37 GMT -6
Just like you all keep pointing out this is a weird looking set up. NWS Springfield even mentions this
The overall structure of this system
does not fit the conceptual model for a clipper system or a heavy
snowfall producing system, its unique, therefore it makes sense
that we may continue to see changes as we approach the weekend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 10:44:43 GMT -6
Ukmet continues to be much further south with the pivot point
The areas the GFS has 24”+ the ukie has not a single flake
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 10:51:53 GMT -6
Ukmet continues to be much further south with the pivot point The areas the GFS has 24”+ the ukie has not a single flake As long as the models agree it's all good. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 10:55:23 GMT -6
GEFS continues to improve in regards to snowfall for the area. Mean is now almost 6” in the metro and the probability of 3” or more is 60-80%  Keep in mind this is all assuming 10:1 ratios |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 12, 2022 10:56:46 GMT -6
We are less than 3 days away and the GFS is showing a once in a lifetime bread and milk storm for SE MO
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 12, 2022 10:59:33 GMT -6
The two shortwaves I've highlighted are the storm or least what are going to be the storm. The is a lot of variability in how these shortwaves evolve. The UKMET has the phasing of the northern and southern pieces of energy occurring further south while the GFS is further north. There is some interplay between the southern energy and the cutoff low off the coast of Baja California that could be effecting things as well.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 11:11:39 GMT -6
Probably larger than normal variances I'm going to guess, until they get sampled better. 0z Friday?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 11:15:01 GMT -6
The two shortwaves I've highlighted are the storm or least what are going to be the storm. The is a lot of variability in how these shortwaves evolve. The UKMET has the phasing of the northern and southern pieces of energy occurring further south while the GFS is further north. There is some interplay between the southern energy and the cutoff low off the coast of Baja California that could be effecting things as well. I wonder how much those dropsondes will help the GFS in figuring this out. I’m guessing that was just a one time thing for the 00z run last night. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2022 11:25:33 GMT -6
Gfs Maps sure are fun to look at and would be historic but I’m giving very little attention to it until the euro goes in that direction.
Canada has chosen a poor time to take a vacation.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 12, 2022 11:31:56 GMT -6
Gfs Maps sure are fun to look at and would be historic but I’m giving very little attention to it until the euro goes in that direction. Canada has chosen a poor time to take a vacation. They are running now. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 11:41:46 GMT -6
rgem looks like it wants to wrap up
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 11:42:14 GMT -6
RDPS looks pretty good and similar to the GFS
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 11:44:43 GMT -6
rdps drops a respectable snow on st.louis as well from waa
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 12:01:40 GMT -6
GEM is heading in the right direction for us
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 12:06:07 GMT -6
I didn't know about this potential storm until now and wish I never found out
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 12:07:58 GMT -6
12z GFS looks quite similar to the 06z GEFS mean with the h85 low tracking near the bootheel. Would be nice to get some more support with that potential. It really wraps up as it moves across N AR towards E KY. If that happens just a few hours sooner, STL would be in business.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 12, 2022 12:09:28 GMT -6
Friv, we need your Friv meter!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 12:19:32 GMT -6
Euro looks like several inches. But too far south for the 2nd part
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2022 12:20:08 GMT -6
GEM is on team GFS more or less. 12z Euro still south, but you can see a slight adjustment north (with phase 2).
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