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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 7:36:51 GMT -6
Just such a weird storm. You can almost feel and see the struggle as models try and sort out an atmosphere that features the interaction between somewhat competitive influences.La Nina MJO, etc. It really is. La Ninas seem to serve up some oddball patterns some years and this one is no exception! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 7:47:49 GMT -6
12Z Model blend is a Kaboom, especially south and east of I-255/I-64
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 7:49:23 GMT -6
06z GEFS mean tracks the h85 low just S of the bootheel. That's getting awfully close to our wheelhouse...need another 75mi shift NE and we're in business for the deformation/TROWAL.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 7:50:21 GMT -6
12Z Model blend is a Kaboom, especially south and east of I-255/I-64 Huh? |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 7:55:49 GMT -6
So the metro is finally in a good spot for a change. With the northward adjustment each run its possible the metro ends up in the bulls eye, or it.keeps going and becomes a columbia storm lol.
All seriousness though great trends
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 12, 2022 7:56:51 GMT -6
Agreed, this is just noise Not going to happen, not even worth tracking. I am just going to chime in this one time and give you a friendly bit of advise as someone who has been on this forum a long time and watched many an enthusiast come and go, going from this to now predicting snow over a 2 day period is never going to get you any credibility with the folks on this board. We are all weather enthusiast or we wouldn't be here, however unless you are a select few on this board who are not only weather enthusiast but are truly talented in observing not only models, but all of the other factors that go into developing an accurate prediction of the outcome of weather, then it is best to do what most do here and not give opinions, but simply state what model ABC and XYZ show. Not trying to call you out, simply trying to help you out, because if we have something of significance, you will get brutalized. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 8:01:31 GMT -6
I understand, I dont take it personally I am hoping to be brutalized because we get burried this weekend because in the end that is what we all want.
I would rather be wrong and get dumped on because that is what we all want.
I love snow more than anyone on this board I bet, i just sometimes get in a slump and say screw it its never going to snow and lock that in, then once I am.proven wrong we are all happy because it actually snowed.
I know its a wierd way of thinking but thats how my mind is.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 12, 2022 8:04:15 GMT -6
Never, ever... gets old. So much fun to watch. Much love to you all.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:04:19 GMT -6
12Z Model blend is a Kaboom, especially south and east of I-255/I-64 Huh? You might not have access to it... It's a premium Pivotal Weather subscription thing. My guess it's an ensemble mean of some kind. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2022 8:07:55 GMT -6
You might not have access to it... It's a premium Pivotal Weather subscription thing. My guess it's an ensemble mean of some kind. Wouldn't it be for the 00z run last night or 06z this morning? Or do you have access to today's 12z run 2 hrs early w/ the premium membership on pivotal weather? |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 12, 2022 8:09:43 GMT -6
I understand, I dont take it personally I am hoping to be brutalized because we get burried this weekend because in the end that is what we all want. I would rather be wrong and get dumped on because that is what we all want. I love snow more than anyone on this board I bet, i just sometimes get in a slump and say screw it its never going to snow and lock that in, then once I am.proven wrong we are all happy because it actually snowed. I know its a wierd way of thinking but thats how my mind is. I have to agree with Todd on this one. We had one other individual on here a few years ago that spent countless posts just spewing random information left and right and was even going as far as making snow maps which 98 percent of the time didn't verify. I love weather as much as anyone but leave the discussion and analyzing to the professionals and great amateur meteorologists on the forum. This forum is a wealth of knowledge you will not find on your local weather channel and if you want to earn the respect of the individuals on the forum, post less. If you want to draw an audience, create your own page and invite people to your page. Chris has done an amazing job of allowing us into his world, be grateful for it. Let's hope this system throws us all a bone, it's been a while  |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 8:13:03 GMT -6
Yes Chris Has done great allowing us here. Thats not the point I learn a ton and thats why I love this place.
You dont see me.posting maps either Nor will I ever.
Lets move on and.enjoy this storm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2022 8:26:27 GMT -6
You might not have access to it... It's a premium Pivotal Weather subscription thing. My guess it's an ensemble mean of some kind. Wouldn't it be for the 00z run last night or 06z this morning? Or do you have access to today's 12z run 2 hrs early w/ the premium membership on pivotal weather? Yeah, I think he is referring to the 12z NBM which would have data from previous runs, not the 12z runs since they haven’t gone yet. Kind of weird the terminology they are using for that model. |
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Post by birddog on Jan 12, 2022 8:27:27 GMT -6
Just looked at the date of Chris's first post for this thread, November 29! Taken till now to get 100 pages. I remember back in the day (when we got snow) we would hit 100 with each weather event! Miss those days!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:38:30 GMT -6
12Z NAM might be suggesting an earlier Southern System transition. This would be very favorable to us, as long as it isn't suppressed too far south and west.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:40:09 GMT -6
75HR has a phasing starting over Oklahoma.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 8:41:16 GMT -6
Nam looks too far south in my opinion
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:44:31 GMT -6
Nam looks too far south in my opinion It was, takes it into the Arklatex region, but surface low is pulling back northward at the end of the run. That might be something to watch. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:46:52 GMT -6
GFS 6Z pretty much was the same thing, but a bit farther north so we stay in the precip shield especially along and south of I-70 on that one.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 9:21:18 GMT -6
Wouldn't it be for the 00z run last night or 06z this morning? Or do you have access to today's 12z run 2 hrs early w/ the premium membership on pivotal weather? Yeah, I think he is referring to the 12z NBM which would have data from previous runs, not the 12z runs since they haven’t gone yet. Kind of weird the terminology they are using for that model. That’s something I’ve always wondered. Is the current NBM run data from that model cycle or a previous model cycle? It comes out so early I feel like it has to be data from past model cycles |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 9:26:47 GMT -6
Icon looks like the NAM and squashes the low with no secondary development on the back side
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 9:29:26 GMT -6
we definitely have a solid shot at a few inches, as far as big numbers we have to see if it gets squashed or not. very odd pattern for sure
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 12, 2022 9:35:53 GMT -6
As we get closer we are going to start seeing the potential and signs for some pretty heavy bands in this as it brings in moisture.
HRW F3 at hour 60 really starting to show it.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 12, 2022 9:42:41 GMT -6
NBM uses the previous cycle model data, but it does come out pretty early. If you are keeping up-to-date on model runs you can probably infer what the NBM is going to look like on the next cycle.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2022 9:47:01 GMT -6
Wouldn't it be for the 00z run last night or 06z this morning? Or do you have access to today's 12z run 2 hrs early w/ the premium membership on pivotal weather? Yeah, I think he is referring to the 12z NBM which would have data from previous runs, not the 12z runs since they haven’t gone yet. Kind of weird the terminology they are using for that model. Good to know, thanks! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2022 9:58:57 GMT -6
12z NAM is too far south for deformation snows it looks like, only going out to 84 hrs.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2022 10:01:14 GMT -6
12z GFS shows a healthy initial WAA snow. Let's see if we can get some deformation snow too.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 10:01:48 GMT -6
GFS is going to bury the southern counties again and leave STL in the snow minimum
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 10:02:58 GMT -6
all we need is a 50 mile shift north on the gfs and we are golden in the metro. northern shift is doable in my opinion
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 12, 2022 10:05:13 GMT -6
GFS goes epic on southern MO.
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