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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2021 10:19:59 GMT -6
models are keeping temps well into the 60's thru the night next Tuesday night.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2021 10:29:48 GMT -6
That makes a strong arguement for a run at 80* for sure...
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2021 10:31:55 GMT -6
Hmmm Written by a good friend of Tom Skilling.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2021 11:23:26 GMT -6
Models are showing some shortwave ridging working in tomorrow mid-day behind the lead disturbance which should encourage clearing/destabilization. With 60*+ Tds working north into the region later in the day and evening, that should provide enough surface-based instability for a tornado threat at least as far north as 44/64.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2021 11:38:29 GMT -6
Models are showing some shortwave ridging working in tomorrow mid-day behind the lead disturbance which should encourage clearing/destabilization. With 60*+ Tds working north into the region later in the day and evening, that should provide enough surface-based instability for a tornado threat at least as far north as 44/64. The hi res NAM had a broken line of storms moving across the area tomorrow evening with bulk shear values around 80 but a rather straight hodograph. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2021 12:02:53 GMT -6
Models are showing some shortwave ridging working in tomorrow mid-day behind the lead disturbance which should encourage clearing/destabilization. With 60*+ Tds working north into the region later in the day and evening, that should provide enough surface-based instability for a tornado threat at least as far north as 44/64. The hi res NAM had a broken line of storms moving across the area tomorrow evening with bulk shear values around 80 but a rather straight hodograph. Yeah, the shear vectors aren't ideal for discrete storm mode, but there's plenty enough low-level speed shear/horizontal vorticity for at least a brief/weak tornado threat this far north. |
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Post by jeepers on Dec 9, 2021 12:04:51 GMT -6
Hmmm Written by a good friend of Tom Skilling. Oh wow |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 9, 2021 12:06:25 GMT -6
Hmmm Written by a good friend of Tom Skilling. His follow up book is Inside the Wheel Well |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2021 12:31:37 GMT -6
The hi res NAM had a broken line of storms moving across the area tomorrow evening with bulk shear values around 80 but a rather straight hodograph. Yeah, the shear vectors aren't ideal for discrete storm mode, but there's plenty enough low-level speed shear/horizontal vorticity for at least a brief/weak tornado threat this far north. The NAM does have some high effective SHERB values around here tomorrow evening, but some of the other severe parameters don’t look as worrisome. I think the risk of a brief spin up or severe wind gust sums it up well for the metro tomorrow.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 9, 2021 14:04:24 GMT -6
That makes a strong arguement for a run at 80* for sure... I agree... there is a VERY strong chance of breaking the all time record high for December next week... and a decent shot at reaching 80. As for tomorrow... it's not a perfect set-up... but definitely enough parameters to keep eyes open. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 14:26:26 GMT -6
HRRR isn't impressed by tomorrow in it's 18Z run and wasn't for it's 12Z run. WRF also not too impressed either, but NAM, and RGEM, along with GFS/GEM as well as the EURO all show at least scattered to decent spread of coverage of storms tomorrow late afternoon and evening.
HRRR would have any storms mostly southeast of the current Day 2 risk area rather interestingly.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 14:29:25 GMT -6
Extended models also starting to really back off on the intensity and especially longevity of the upcoming 'heatwave' next week with now only 1 or 2 days look really warm with the rest only 5-10 degrees above average then gradually cooling as we head into the Winter Solstice and especially into Christmas.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2021 14:34:31 GMT -6
today has over achieved, 67 at 2pm
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 14:36:15 GMT -6
today has over achieved, 67 at 2pm Bet the winds and full sun have been no doubt aiding in the mixing allowing temps to pop. That may or may not be the case tomorrow. If clouds are absent then records will crumble. If it's cloudier then it will still be warm, but the record could be spared or at best tied. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 14:39:00 GMT -6
Also temps in the Illinois side have struggled. Only now in upper 50s and low 60s, but yet mid 60s to near 70 in Missouri with distances between not that great. Wonder why Illinois is almost 10 degrees colder then Downtown/Lambert but only upper 50s near 60 in Belleville. Topography?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 14:42:03 GMT -6
Also 18Z NAM back off considerably regarding storm chances in the viewing area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 14:43:24 GMT -6
RAP is been unimpressed with storms tomorrow as well.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2021 14:49:58 GMT -6
Also temps in the Illinois side have struggled. Only now in upper 50s and low 60s, but yet mid 60s to near 70 in Missouri with distances between not that great. Wonder why Illinois is almost 10 degrees colder then Downtown/Lambert but only upper 50s near 60 in Belleville. Topography? Advection, dude...the wind is out of the SW. Probably a slight orographic downslope enhancement off the plateau as well. |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 9, 2021 14:53:35 GMT -6
Hmmm Written by a good friend of Tom Skilling. I wonder if there will be a signing? Also a good start for the t-shirt. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2021 16:11:37 GMT -6
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 9, 2021 16:44:48 GMT -6
It got to 70 last year on the 9th. Only remember because its my birthday. I used to beg for snow on my birthday and got it quite a few times. these upper 60s/70s aren’t so bad as well!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2021 16:52:42 GMT -6
Gfs seems to be suggesting we could have a shot at winter the week of Christmas.
It’ll be interesting to see if the warmth is able to lock in after our return to winter around Christmas. If so, we are in big trouble.
Basically, we are seeing the inverse of what we get during a SSW where there is a 10-14 day mild period and then widespread cold/wintry weather. This time we get 10-14 days of winter followed by an extended period of mild weather unless we can breakout.
Everyone still want a slow start to winter?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 17:25:30 GMT -6
Gfs seems to be suggesting we could have a shot at winter the week of Christmas. It’ll be interesting to see if the warmth is able to lock in after our return to winter around Christmas. If so, we are in big trouble. Basically, we are seeing the inverse of what we get during a SSW where there is a 10-14 day mild period and then widespread cold/wintry weather. This time we get 10-14 days of winter followed by an extended period of mild weather unless we can breakout. Everyone still want a slow start to winter? Dave did say A white Christmas this year. If it happens then I'll call this month epic only because I still get my prediction as far as average temps, and we still get our White Christmas maybe even New Year's. in Short everybody wins as there was something for everyone this month. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 17:29:02 GMT -6
I'm seeing a lot of bouncing ball temps in 1st half January, but I have a feeling MLK Day into early March will be our hardcore, pure Winter. Doesn't mean there won't be warmups, but they will quite brief and likely not too out of control. February will be Winter at it's finest with the inverse of this month occurring in March with a cold start with a shot or 2 of snow then a quick warming into Spring before May lets us down again into June with cut-off lows and unsettled weather as well as likely below normal temps but not greatly so.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2021 17:33:27 GMT -6
lol, jesus
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2021 17:46:31 GMT -6
There's absolutely no way this month is going to go down as average...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 18:27:36 GMT -6
There's absolutely no way this month is going to go down as average... When I said 'average' I was referring to my call for a warm December and the average mean of temps for the month being above but maybe not 'historic' which gets passed around a bit on here. Not that temps would 'be average'. In other words the average temps for the month will still be above to well above, but less so then record breaking for the month as a whole. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 18:30:23 GMT -6
Monthly Temperature Departures from Average Forecasts:
for Clarification-
December: Above to Much Above Average
January: Slight Below to Below Normal (especially 2nd half)
February: Below to Well Below Normal
March: Near Average with a cold start and mild to warm finish
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2021 19:51:20 GMT -6
Obligatory "we REALLY need some snow" post
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2021 20:42:23 GMT -6
3km NAM seems to have uptrended the severe environment around here tomorrow evening. Be interesting to see what some of the other CAMs show  |
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