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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2021 20:55:18 GMT -6
You can see the higher CWASP values creeping NW with recent runs as well. The red outline is the most recent NAM run with CWASP values > 60% followed by the green, then blue, then orange outline  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 21:01:17 GMT -6
You can see the higher CWASP values creeping NW with recent runs as well. The red outline is the most recent NAM run with CWASP values > 60% followed by the green, then blue, then orange outline I-44 to I-64 Corridor and points south and east still in this! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 9, 2021 21:04:20 GMT -6
Hmmm Written by a good friend of Tom Skilling. Triemstra was the primary weather man on WGN during the early “superstation“ days and Skilling was the backup. When Triemstra retired Skilling moved up to #1. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 9, 2021 21:20:13 GMT -6
FV3 Hi-Res showing some nasty supercells plowing through the metro around dinner time tomorrow.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 9, 2021 21:33:50 GMT -6
FV3 Hi-Res showing some nasty supercells plowing through the metro around dinner time tomorrow. It has been aggressive. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2021 23:03:25 GMT -6
00z gfs continues to suggest winter attempts to show up after our big warmup next week.
Have to reach for something at this point.
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Dec 9, 2021 23:29:13 GMT -6
I always like to listen to Glenn's messaging the night before a storm system. He tends to play it pretty conservative. I found it interesting that he did not play down tomorrow's chances. He certainly didn't sound the alarm either, but I think this system has his attention.
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Dec 9, 2021 23:41:44 GMT -6
I always like to listen to Glenn's messaging the night before a storm system. He tends to play it pretty conservative. I found it interesting that he did not play down tomorrow's chances. He certainly didn't sound the alarm either, but I think this system has his attention. And now we know why. Damn, SPC. |
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Dec 9, 2021 23:51:52 GMT -6
I always like to listen to Glenn's messaging the night before a storm system. He tends to play it pretty conservative. I found it interesting that he did not play down tomorrow's chances. He certainly didn't sound the alarm either, but I think this system has his attention. And now we know why. Damn, SPC. Uh wow. I wasn’t expecting to see the enhanced risk and 10 percent hatched tornado risk pulled that far north and west. 920 was on it as usual however. It’s pretty much right on the red line he posted. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 0:04:51 GMT -6
And now we know why. Damn, SPC. Uh wow. I wasn’t expecting to see the enhanced risk and 10 percent hatched tornado risk pulled that far north and west. 920 was on it as usual however. It’s pretty much right on the red line he posted. Ya, that's a big shift for us. Took the metro from a marginal risk to a 10% hatched tor risk. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 0:08:44 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2021 1:12:47 GMT -6
Uh wow. I wasn’t expecting to see the enhanced risk and 10 percent hatched tornado risk pulled that far north and west. 920 was on it as usual however. It’s pretty much right on the red line he posted. Ya, that's a big shift for us. Took the metro from a marginal risk to a 10% hatched tor risk. I think they may have gone too far honestly. I think it may take the ramping up of the LLJ to get things rolling...and that doesn't happen until the Mississippi River. I think the original outlook was still pretty good. I would be ok with an expansion to maybe STL City and Hwy 67... or even I-44. But they went well past that. I think I'm going to make a manual graphic that is a little less bullish with the northwest shift. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2021 1:24:15 GMT -6
  Severe thunderstorm including damaging winds and possible a few strong, long track tornadoes will be possible late Friday into Friday evening. The greatest risk continues to be focused in Illinois and southeast Missouri. However, based on some of this evening's model data, the threat zone has been shifted to the northwest a bit more with concerns for severe weather into the metro area Friday evening increasing as well. The main threat will be damaging straight line winds, but there will be considerable wind shear resulting in the posibility of either a couple of quick moving front edge tornadoes (QLCS type tornadoes) as well as more robust/longer tracking super cell tornadoes. The greatest risk for the most significant severe weather is still focused over southern IL into southeast Missouri. There are standard caveats... not the least of which is this is a very dynamic situation and some more nuianced ingredients may not be totally in line. Still, there are enough ingredients on the table at this time to be concerned about some significant severe weather Friday evening. It is important to point out... based on historical data... winter tornadoes are far less frequent around here than in the spring. However, a solid 50% of the ones that do occurr are EF2 or stronger! That's an important stat! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 10, 2021 2:51:44 GMT -6
Radar echoes moving through Jeffco ATTM look like maybe they might be some snow falling. They also look pretty wimpy and may be virga. Pretty small area coverage on radar so ground confirmation is going to be hard to come by.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 5:42:56 GMT -6
Wow was not expecting to see a risk like that im the metro today. Guess its going to be a rough evening.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 10, 2021 6:02:45 GMT -6
Ok... bit of a side note. Anyone know anything about a YouTube forecaster named Ryan Hall? I stumbled on him a week or so ago. He does a nationwide weather review/ forecast on a daily basis. Even if he isn't accurate, at least he is thorough.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 10, 2021 6:30:13 GMT -6
Ok... bit of a side note. Anyone know anything about a YouTube forecaster named Ryan Hall? I stumbled on him a week or so ago. He does a nationwide weather review/ forecast on a daily basis. Even if he isn't accurate, at least he is thorough. I've been watching him for about three months. Very thorough. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2021 7:45:02 GMT -6
Egh, I don't like this setup for me down here. It just has that look of a SEMO/SO IL event that we've seen so many times over the years. Maybe it'll wait until it gets just east of me before it gets going.
The HRRR has continued to look more threatening as we get closer.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 10, 2021 7:53:19 GMT -6
During RT's morning update, he was showing the HRRR radar loop and it showed a very hefty line of storms in norther MO, splitting around STL (like it always does) then proceeding south and east. He also showed the EHI evolution and the values just explode north eastward up 44 as the evening nears. It is going to be busy night for METS in the region for sure.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 7:53:43 GMT -6
Wrf is showing one intense supercell moving through st.charles county this evening. Thats concerning. This is.looking like a rough evening for eastern and southeast mo and all of ill
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 8:28:31 GMT -6
Futurecast looked pretty ominous last night with several discrete supercells sweeping across the metro early evening. Not surprised that SPC pulled the hatched 10% TOR risk further NW into the Metro.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 10, 2021 8:47:11 GMT -6
Obviously the severe weather is keeping things interesting around here but I am pretty jealous of how much snow Wisconsin is going to get.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 8:51:28 GMT -6
Egh, I don't like this setup for me down here. It just has that look of a SEMO/SO IL event that we've seen so many times over the years. Maybe it'll wait until it gets just east of me before it gets going. The HRRR has continued to look more threatening as we get closer. Reed is targeting SEMO and S IL for tonight. You guys have seemed to be a hotspot for tornadoes lately |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2021 8:57:32 GMT -6
Egh, I don't like this setup for me down here. It just has that look of a SEMO/SO IL event that we've seen so many times over the years. Maybe it'll wait until it gets just east of me before it gets going. The HRRR has continued to look more threatening as we get closer. Reed is targeting SEMO and S IL for tonight. You guys have seemed to be a hotspot for tornadoes lately Yea I just watched his morning briefing. Said he is planning on setting up shop in Cape G. It sure does, it has been a rough few years down this way for tornadoes. Going back to 2006 (first St. Mary tornado), it has been quite frequent. This is one of those areas of the country that has been a hotspot through history really, obviously with the most severe tornado in recorded history being down this way. I still feel that the Ozark Plateau enhances it in some way. Maybe the south wind comes across the lowlands and then hits the plateau and adds a little extra uplift and spin. That's my theory anyway. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 10, 2021 10:02:28 GMT -6
Is it me regardless of the season it seems like these storm threats are almost always around the same time.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 10:10:56 GMT -6
Is it me regardless of the season it seems like these storm threats are almost always around the same time. As far as severe outbreaks are concerned, mid-December has definitely become a bit notorious lately. It seems like the "cool season" has two distinct peaks...in December and again in February. The January outbreaks are usually limited to Dixie and the Gulf Coast. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 10:23:58 GMT -6
Mod risk se mo, enhanced almost entire area now. Its gonna be nasty
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 10:27:25 GMT -6
We are all now under enh or mod sig outbreak looks likely
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 10:27:58 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 10:29:02 GMT -6
Doesn't look like we'll see much clearing today other than breaks in the overcast but that shouldn't have much impact with such strong moisture/Theta advection as the LLJ ramps up this evening and temps aloft cool.
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