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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 10, 2021 10:30:11 GMT -6
The streets, roads have been sweating this morning due to the high humidity and fog. It creates an erry mood, like something is going to happen. Before past severe wx outbreaks, it seems like the streets, roads sweat and are damp. Nothing important, just a small detail I notice.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 10:36:51 GMT -6
The streets, roads have been sweating this morning due to the high humidity and fog. It creates an erry mood, like something is going to happen. Before past severe wx outbreaks, it seems like the streets, roads sweat and are damp. Nothing important, just a small detail I notice. Morning fog is a classic signal for severe weather later in the day during the cool season. It signals WAA in the low levels |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 10:44:59 GMT -6
It'll be interesting to see if the shortwave lifting NE across OK will be enough to break the cap later this afternoon. If it does, discrete supercells are possible across the region which increases the risk of stronger tornadoes.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 10:52:56 GMT -6
A 10 SigTor environment during the night in mid December? Ya why not  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2021 10:52:58 GMT -6
impressive ensemble signals over 5 days out... reminds me of that insane heatwave from Canada earlier this year.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2021 10:55:37 GMT -6
The streets, roads have been sweating this morning due to the high humidity and fog. It creates an erry mood, like something is going to happen. Before past severe wx outbreaks, it seems like the streets, roads sweat and are damp. Nothing important, just a small detail I notice. Morning fog is a classic signal for severe weather later in the day during the cool season. It signals WAA in the low levels This X100^. As the day progresses the more it reminds me of 2-28-2017. That whole day was foggy, cloudy, misty, etc. I'm confident that the rogue supercells which develop mid to late evening will produce strong tornadoes. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 10, 2021 11:02:38 GMT -6
A 10 SigTor environment during the night in mid December? Ya why not I noticed that too... but if you look at the pivotal weather site it is in the 4-5 range. Looks like some feedback off COD |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 11:05:07 GMT -6
Moderate Risk from SPC latest update, Metro and points south.
Late to the party as there was like a page worth of posts mentioning that last page. Should of looked back.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 10, 2021 11:07:12 GMT -6
The streets, roads have been sweating this morning due to the high humidity and fog. It creates an erry mood, like something is going to happen. Before past severe wx outbreaks, it seems like the streets, roads sweat and are damp. Nothing important, just a small detail I notice. Morning fog is a classic signal for severe weather later in the day during the cool season. It signals WAA in the low levels Makes sense! Yeah the warm air advection in the low levels is strong creating fog. The fog and damp roads remind me of the severe wx outbreak on New Years Eve in 2010, more warm air advection in the troposphere. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 10, 2021 11:11:01 GMT -6
Like WSC has been saying lately... the GFS is consistent with the cold air coming down before Christmas.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 11:11:52 GMT -6
920, the SIGTOR values on the 15z HRRRRRRRR are "only" 4-5 on AWP's charts...but still concerning with backed surface winds and a fairly well-defined pre-frontal confluence developing across E/Central MO this afternoon. That's a ripe setup for discrete supercells and tornadoes if the CAP breaks. CAPE builds to 1500-2000j/kg this evening across the Metro on that run as well, which suggests potential for multiple waves of severe convection and a nocturnal tornado and significant wind gust threat.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 11:12:45 GMT -6
Like WSC has been saying lately... the GFS is consistent with the cold air coming down before Christmas. I think that timing makes sense with such a strong amplification occurring next week. Maybe between Xmas and NYD. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 10, 2021 11:15:43 GMT -6
Forecasting severe convection things can change quickly. At this time yesterday the very northwestern edge of today's moderate risk was just marginal yesterday.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 10, 2021 11:23:38 GMT -6
Dewpoints currently at 67-70F in northeast AR, bootheal MO, and western TN advecting into southeast MO.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 10, 2021 11:26:03 GMT -6
Dangerous situation. Will be dark for a majority of the activity and threat for intense tornadoes.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 10, 2021 11:28:20 GMT -6
According to the afternoon forecast the real action is going to be SE of Metro.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 11:29:58 GMT -6
I would not downplay the metro, we are closer to the warm front as well
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 11:32:23 GMT -6
According to the afternoon forecast the real action is going to be SE of Metro. What forecast? |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 10, 2021 11:34:15 GMT -6
According to the afternoon forecast the real action is going to be SE of Metro. What forecast? Fox2 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2021 11:39:26 GMT -6
large area of rain incoming..has started here
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 11:48:18 GMT -6
Sorry, but that's not an accurate representation of the forecast. The metro is absolutely under the gun for significant severe wx. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 10, 2021 11:52:45 GMT -6
 Looks like some clearing behind this batch of rain for later this afternoon. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 10, 2021 12:04:44 GMT -6
I’m going to be that guy lol …… what time frame do you think this is going to hit ?
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Dec 10, 2021 12:10:05 GMT -6
Will this early batch of rain do anything to lessen the evening Outlook?
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 12:14:37 GMT -6
Rain does not matter much how severe tonight will be this time of year in my opinion. It only helps moisten things up
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 12:16:32 GMT -6
Will this early batch of rain do anything to lessen the evening Outlook? Not really. This event will not depend on diurnal heating for instability. The very anomalous dew points and steep lapse rates will be more than enough for sufficient instability later. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 12:16:38 GMT -6
Will this early batch of rain do anything to lessen the evening Outlook? Not at all...strong moisture advection will pump up the instability after that moves through. And as Coz pointed out, there is an area of clearing overcast to our SW that may work in later today that would boost CAPE a bit and help to break the CAP prior to the cold front sweeping through. |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Dec 10, 2021 12:32:06 GMT -6
days like today make me wish we could just lift and shift this to discord
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2021 12:32:48 GMT -6
Not sure if it means anything at this stage but the HRRR has backed off quite a bit the last couple runs.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 12:33:39 GMT -6
Yeah the ingredients are ripe, i have never understood the hrr thinking too much
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