|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 12:36:09 GMT -6
The hrwfv3 looks like a tiger claw sliced us with supercells if you guys check that out
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 12:42:16 GMT -6
I am curious to see if mod will be pulled to nw a bit next update.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2021 12:46:54 GMT -6
I hope not… as it is I think the enhanced risk was pulled way too far Northwest given the uncertainties that are involved. I do think the moderate risk is reasonably well placed.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2021 12:50:26 GMT -6
I have been trying to message that the risk is everywhere.. but the uncertainty is greatest to the North and West...with the greatest potential (and confidence) for the most significant severe being over the South and East. But it matters not where you are... everyone needs to keep their heads on a swivel this evening.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 12:50:46 GMT -6
I agree Chris, just felt like the spc was extremely bullish, partly I am wondering because it is a nighttime event. But I love your forcast the way you are presenting it
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 12:51:59 GMT -6
Forecasting severe convection things can change quickly. At this time yesterday the very northwestern edge of today's moderate risk was just marginal yesterday. Its been a rather wild shift in modeling the last 36 hours. What looked like a very marginal event has gone to a potentially higher end severe event.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 12:58:57 GMT -6
That's a very significant EHI value for a cool season outbreak...
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2021 13:13:48 GMT -6
Like WSC has been saying lately... the GFS is consistent with the cold air coming down before Christmas. 00z gfs actually split the polar vortex, which was cool. We’ll see, a White Christmas would make up for a lot in my book |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 13:43:06 GMT -6
Md out se mo, wonder if metro will be in the firsr tornado watch
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2021 13:51:57 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 13:55:30 GMT -6
18z NAM at 03z tonight in the metro. There's still some uncertainty about convection initiation around here, but no doubt the environment is supportive of all severe weather modes.  |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 14:01:09 GMT -6
1st Meso Discussion Out. Tornado Watch soon metro and points south with a 4-6PM storm initialization time.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 14:02:27 GMT -6
18z NAM at 03z tonight in the metro. There's still some uncertainty about convection initiation around here, but no doubt the environment is supportive of all severe weather modes. 7PM hour seems to stick out for me some reason. But anywhere from 6 to 8PM will be our prime time. Maybe because I'm working tonight and my shift ends at 8PM? After all last time there was a tornado warning in March it was during my work shift and we all had to huddle in the back store coolers. Fun stuff likes to happen when I'm at work for some reason. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 10, 2021 14:10:22 GMT -6
1st Meso Discussion Out. Tornado Watch soon metro and points south with a 4-6PM storm initialization time.
I wouldn't call that Metro. Randolph Co and points south and east. |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 14:12:00 GMT -6
Im sure metro will be in it, i notice they usually issue a smaller meso area than the watch the issue. I think the watch will be Phelps to calhoun illinois and points east and south
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 14:23:39 GMT -6
Sun popping in st peters
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 15:08:59 GMT -6
Watch up for se counties. I kind of have a feeling metro may be spared again. But be safe down south
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 15:09:47 GMT -6
I’m sure they are going to issue more than one watch tonight
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 15:10:55 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 15:12:37 GMT -6
Most models recently I notice have almost nothing in missouri firing for this event. Im sure all would be fine with that, but this has a huge bust potential and great job being conservative Chris
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 10, 2021 15:15:42 GMT -6
Watch includes St. Clair county, Illinois also almost as close to being PDS without actually being a PDS watch.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2021 15:20:49 GMT -6
Yea the short range models really have backed off. I guess we'll see.
|
|
|
|
Post by fojginmo on Dec 10, 2021 15:23:38 GMT -6
While it was nice out today, I drove down to Fredericktown, down 67, got off at 72 & took the bypass over to OO & headed back north. Then took Busiek road east to Worley Rd to F highway to AA north to the little church. On AA is where the house that the news kept showing. First could see evidence just north of the St. Francis River. Saw a big tree down & shortly after could see the major stuff. Man, so hard to process it all. Mr. Gonz’ home is being rebuilt. They’ve just gotten the framework up. Crazy to be in flip flops & capris in December.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 15:24:29 GMT -6
I think the main show will br from little rock to paducah.
I feel that yesterdays spc outlook fit this better and the front itself does not seem to want to pop anything.
Honestly lets all hope this system was mostly hype in our area as I dont want to see anyones homes damages especially befor the holidays.
|
|
|
|
Post by weatherman222 on Dec 10, 2021 15:28:29 GMT -6
I must say folks in Fredericktown are glued to the weather today. Cleanup still continues after the 10/24 tornado and people are on edge. We did have a couple short lived breaks in the clouds but overall humid and cloudy. The tornado we had in October it was sunny most of the afternoon, much warmer, and very windy.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 15:33:20 GMT -6
Main initiation seems down by little rocl which fits the hrrr and that would hopefully mean it misses nearly all of missouri and illinois.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2021 15:42:58 GMT -6
RAP has some storms firing in a couple hours to our SW and riding up 44 into the metro
HRRR has the same deal but alittle further north from the NW counties into central IL
Regardless, I don’t think anyone in the CWA should let there guard down anytime soon
We don’t see kinematic environments like this very often
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2021 16:23:11 GMT -6
I don’t want anyone to let their guard down but to be honest my gut is telling me this may underperform based on real time data and trends.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2021 16:24:36 GMT -6
I know it's early, but i think the cap is not breaking as quick as at least I thought.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 10, 2021 16:33:54 GMT -6
I know it's early, but i think the cap is not breaking as quick as at least I thought. Be patient. Need the front to catch up to the rich pool of dewpoints in MO and the LLJ to ramp up. MO will probably have storms...just don't know exactly where yet. Latest HRRR says 7-8pm when things get going. It could be a bust or it could be incredibly catastrophic. No one knows for sure. |
|
