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Post by bdgwx on Dec 11, 2021 11:27:12 GMT -6
Wow. That is horrible. That's at least EF4 for sure. I'll have to watch more closely when I have time but at a cusory glance I'm seeing a few bare slabs. The question then is were the structures anchored down to qualify as an EF5 damage indicator? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2021 11:29:17 GMT -6
Guy from WXRISK states the Mayfield, KY was EF4 rated but on the stronger end of. It was close and either way doesn't change the fact that it was a devastating storm that affected a lot of people through populated regions. Let’s wait for the official NWS rating. It’s going to take them days to sort through all the damage. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2021 11:41:44 GMT -6
Joplin was initially rated EF4 as well.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2021 11:43:58 GMT -6
Guy from WXRISK states the Mayfield, KY was EF4 rated but on the stronger end of. It was close and either way doesn't change the fact that it was a devastating storm that affected a lot of people through populated regions. He doesn't know that. There is absolutely no way that everything was surveyed yet. It'll take days possible. He got way ahead of himself. If this thing isn't Ef5 I'll eat my foot. With country bob's . |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 11, 2021 11:50:30 GMT -6
Guy from WXRISK states the Mayfield, KY was EF4 rated but on the stronger end of. It was close and either way doesn't change the fact that it was a devastating storm that affected a lot of people through populated regions. He doesn't know that. There is absolutely no way that everything was surveyed yet. It'll take days possible. He got way ahead of himself. If this thing isn't Ef5 I'll eat my foot. With country bob's . My guess there its an actual preliminary estimate or was based off drone/aerial footage. A detailed assessment as mentioned will take time and the rating will likely be adjusted in the coming days or weeks. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2021 12:27:38 GMT -6
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Post by yypc on Dec 11, 2021 12:39:35 GMT -6
Guy from WXRISK states the Mayfield, KY was EF4 rated but on the stronger end of. It was close and either way doesn't change the fact that it was a devastating storm that affected a lot of people through populated regions. The difference between EF4 and EF5 is not always indicative of how strong the tornado was. It heavily depends on whether there is a well enough constructed home/building in the tornado’s path to warrant the EF5 rating. Based on everything ive seen that was a historically strong tornado/supercell. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 11, 2021 13:28:23 GMT -6
The quad state tornado, the defiance tornado, and the Edwardsville tornado send absolute chills down my spine, these all were not just tornados, they were all severe to violent, I dont know if a set up like last night can get much worse than that. Absolutely insane.
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Post by jeepers on Dec 11, 2021 13:33:44 GMT -6
For me, it's just another reminder that no matter how much we, as people on the planet, blahblahblah, Ma Nature is in charge, and can shake us off in an instant. Man can spend a 100 years building something and it can be erased in a moment.
Humbling and tragic.
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Post by Kathy Walker - Fredericktown on Dec 11, 2021 13:38:11 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 11, 2021 13:49:12 GMT -6
I have a question. Are these winter events really becoming more frequent? I mean every huge winter storm has a warm side and a cold side, doesn't it stand to reason that if Minneapolis gets a big snow somewhere is getting a severe storm?
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 11, 2021 13:53:23 GMT -6
All I feel are La Nina Winters tend to be more Violent tornado outbreaks than any other outbreak we ever see. Not sure if thats just my observation or some truth behind it.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 11, 2021 13:54:47 GMT -6
Starting to get more damage reports from Union near St. Andrews place. I’m still very surprised no touchdown has been found from that cell yet.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2021 14:29:00 GMT -6
Starting to get more damage reports from Union near St. Andrews place. I’m still very surprised no touchdown has been found from that cell yet. But at Andrews is not near the pasta house. Way on the other side of town. Unless it's a different place I'm thinking of lol. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 11, 2021 14:58:36 GMT -6
Starting to get more damage reports from Union near St. Andrews place. I’m still very surprised no touchdown has been found from that cell yet. But at Andrews is not near the pasta house. Way on the other side of town. Unless it's a different place I'm thinking of lol. St. Andrews Place is over near the bowling alley which was in the projectile path of that cell. Could have popped up and came back down. Seen some tin little peeled off a roof like a tin can and what appeared to be a collapsed shed. So definitely a powerful cell to do that. Glad you are ok because the motel was very near that storm as well. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2021 16:02:51 GMT -6
The owner has been found...in Dawson Springs, KY.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 11, 2021 16:15:49 GMT -6
Good afternoon... I'm filling in for Angela tonight who is on vacation. I haven't posted today because I am physically and mentally exhausted and honestly not even sure what to say.
I'll start with a tip of the cap to SPC. Their expansion of the enhanced risk was on target. It's not that my outlook was wrong. But theirs was more correct. I think everyone was suprised in the end that the moderate risk in southeast Missouri and our portion of southern Illinois didn't see much action at all. Looking back... I'm thinking the caping was too strong over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. The better ballance between shear, instability, upper level support and weakening cap set-up along the CAPE gradient and near the warm front. When the storms finally started to develop in southwest Missouri...the set-up downstream over eastern missouri was about as primed as it can get... my heart really sank at that point.
I ended up at two scenes last night... both experienced loss of life. Those kinds of things stick with you forever.
I will eventually go back and re-read the play-by-play in here.... it's always a good source of learning and understanding of how events unfolded in the public eye.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 11, 2021 16:17:06 GMT -6
Starting to get more damage reports from Union near St. Andrews place. I’m still very surprised no touchdown has been found from that cell yet. What kind of damage? The NWS has no reports from that area... but doesn't want to send a crew out to survey a couple of downed limbs because they have a lot more to cover. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 11, 2021 16:28:33 GMT -6
Starting to get more damage reports from Union near St. Andrews place. I’m still very surprised no touchdown has been found from that cell yet. What kind of damage? The NWS has no reports from that area... but doesn't want to send a crew out to survey a couple of downed limbs because they have a lot more to cover. Here’s some of the damage pictures but they vary from west of Washington in the photo to St. Andrews place in Union. Might have been two different areas. Apparently a lot of roof and fence damage there. I’ve asked for pictures but haven’t received any from there yet. Most limb damage elsewhere. So far not enough to confirm a touchdown yet in my opinion but that was one nasty funnel cloud. Looked very close to the ground. imgur.com/gallery/Eih31UWimgur.com/gallery/aGAmkEt |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2021 17:12:05 GMT -6
Sounds like the death toll is up to 6 in the Edwardsville/Amazon warehouse tornado
Horrible
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 11, 2021 17:16:18 GMT -6
Sounds like the death toll is up to 6 in the Edwardsville/Amazon warehouse tornado Horrible It's amazing it's not worse. Could you imagine multiple structure failures in that commerce park? |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 11, 2021 17:17:17 GMT -6
Good afternoon... I'm filling in for Angela tonight who is on vacation. I haven't posted today because I am physically and mentally exhausted and honestly not even sure what to say. I'll start with a tip of the cap to SPC. Their expansion of the enhanced risk was on target. It's not that my outlook was wrong. But theirs was more correct. I think everyone was suprised in the end that the moderate risk in southeast Missouri and our portion of southern Illinois didn't see much action at all. Looking back... I'm thinking the caping was too strong over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. The better ballance between shear, instability, upper level support and weakening cap set-up along the CAPE gradient and near the warm front. When the storms finally started to develop in southwest Missouri...the set-up downstream over eastern missouri was about as primed as it can get... my heart really sank at that point. I ended up at two scenes last night... both experienced loss of life. Those kinds of things stick with you forever. I will eventually go back and re-read the play-by-play in here.... it's always a good source of learning and understanding of how events unfolded in the public eye. I will be the first to admit I was very surprised the Mt. Vernon to Marion corridor saw virtually nothing. Here in Salem we would have dodged the bullet completely as well, but the storm in Randolph county around red bud came northeast into my area with a tornado warning. Impacts were fairly minimal though as it was mainly pouring rain and only a minute or two of intense wind. Very little damage in town other than a few limbs down. I really thought areas S of me were going to be the prime target. I didnt think it would end up that much further northwest. You guys in SE MO/ S IL ( further south than I am ) are counting your blessings I'm sure as you've had more than your fair share of activity the last few years in terms of severe weather. Prayers to all affected by loss of life and property and as always you were great on the coverage Chris. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 11, 2021 17:22:39 GMT -6
Sounds like the death toll is up to 6 in the Edwardsville/Amazon warehouse tornado Horrible It's amazing it's not worse. Could you imagine multiple structure failures in that commerce park? From the damage path, it’s almost like it struck the building and moved on. I can’t see any other damage. Tragic. |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 11, 2021 17:27:49 GMT -6
I believe we've seen this before where the " hot zone " for severe weather highlighted by the SPC saw very little to no action. Nearly all of the severe reports were outside of the highest risk area in those instances as well. There always seems to be a break between where the triple point/warm front area activity is and the strong LLJ activity further southeast. Someone ends up in between in no man's land.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2021 17:43:50 GMT -6
I believe we've seen this before where the " hot zone " for severe weather highlighted by the SPC saw very little to no action. Nearly all of the severe reports were outside of the highest risk area in those instances as well. There always seems to be a break between where the triple point/warm front area activity is and the strong LLJ activity further southeast. Someone ends up in between in no man's land. A big chunk of the MOD zone did see very little severe weather, but the “quad state tornado” took place almost entirely in the southern area of the MOD risk. Overall, a vast majority of the severe reports where either in the ENH or MOD risk. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 11, 2021 17:58:52 GMT -6
Sounds like the death toll is up to 6 in the Edwardsville/Amazon warehouse tornado Horrible It's amazing it's not worse. Could you imagine multiple structure failures in that commerce park? That's what I thought last night, too. I've been in a couple of those businesses in that business center. Just massive open spaces. |
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Post by weatherman222 on Dec 11, 2021 18:24:42 GMT -6
Been pretty consumed today go over the events of last night. One question from an NWS operational standpoint I have is why did SGF take over for Paducah during their power failure? They are one of the farthest bordering offices. Is it mainly because most of their CWA was in the clear at that point in the night?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 11, 2021 18:30:16 GMT -6
This event will easily go down as one of the worst outbreaks we've seen in years, cool season or not. The "quad state" tornado was the most impressive storm I've seen when intensity and duration is considered. That mesocyclone was intense almost the entire way with minimal cycling. I left town ahead of the storms last evening in route to Pinkneyville and barely got ahead of the supercell that hit the Amazon warehouse which we drove past. Pinkneyville had Paducah's live coverage on TV and we watched as it hit Mayfield directly. They had the radar zoomed in on the debris ball and it was literally the size of town. Unbelievable storm and undoubtedly an EF4/5 along much of it's path. We drove past the warehouse today and the destruction there is shocking. It looks like an enormous bulldozer plowed clear through a 1/3rd of the building. I can't imagine being inside one of those buildings and taking a direct hit from a strong tornado. What a humbling event and I pray for all those affected.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 11, 2021 18:32:35 GMT -6
Been pretty consumed today go over the events of last night. One question from an NWS operational standpoint I have is why did SGF take over for Paducah during their power failure? They are one of the farthest bordering offices. Is it mainly because most of their CWA was in the clear at that point in the night? I would guess that is the case...LSX had their hands full while SGF had a temporary break. Kudos to them and the SPC who handled the trends and overall forecast very well, IMO. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 11, 2021 19:09:24 GMT -6
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