luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Dec 11, 2021 20:07:32 GMT -6
I’m thinking that Springfield cell will be tornado warned any second. We were in Silver Dollar City when the sirens went off. They did a great job of getting people into shelters, bathrooms and basements (no idea they had these in some of the buildings). With the warm Dec weather and the Christmas lights it was crowded even though they have limited capacity during Covid. |
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Post by weatherman222 on Dec 11, 2021 20:29:52 GMT -6
Been pretty consumed today go over the events of last night. One question from an NWS operational standpoint I have is why did SGF take over for Paducah during their power failure? They are one of the farthest bordering offices. Is it mainly because most of their CWA was in the clear at that point in the night? I would guess that is the case...LSX had their hands full while SGF had a temporary break. Kudos to them and the SPC who handled the trends and overall forecast very well, IMO. I fully agree. I think the message was pretty clear and was advertised well in advance. There were several events locally that cancelled due to the forecast. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2021 12:04:33 GMT -6
I guess everyone's taking a well deserved break. Hopefully we get enough sun to get close to 80 on Wednesday. Yes, I said that. Best chance to break the monthly record. Before coolish air moves in. Certainly not cold. Gfs pretty much sucks thru Christmas. Cooler, nothing major.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2021 12:34:59 GMT -6
Through Christmas sure but check out the ice storm between Christmas and new year, ouch.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2021 12:52:43 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen is starting to show a bit more enthusiasm for winter heading into January.
The gfs has even shown a split PV a couple times.
There are some hints of finally getting out of the trash pattern, but healthy skepticism is warranted at this range.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2021 13:03:50 GMT -6
If the gfs day 15 and 16 we're right wed have about 10 inches of snow on the ground and a temp of 4.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2021 13:26:47 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen is starting to show a bit more enthusiasm for winter heading into January. The gfs has even shown a split PV a couple times. There are some hints of finally getting out of the trash pattern, but healthy skepticism is warranted at this range. I’m starting to have some optimism about winter returning later this month and into January. One thing I’ve noticed on the ensembles is some big time cold building in western Canada later this month and a pronounced ridge over Alaska. The NAO looks to go negative in a week and potentially stay there for the foreseeable future. The PNA looks to stay firmly negative through which argues for the SE ridge to stay strong. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2021 13:35:57 GMT -6
Winter is coming folks. Winter tends to be moe jan to march in this area, than dec ti feb.
I guess seasonal shift. I really dont care if it snowsjust as long as we have highs near 40 and lows near 25 to at least feel more normal than whatever this is we are having would be fine by me.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 12, 2021 15:15:05 GMT -6
It really does seem like the seasons have shifted a bit over the past 10-15 years or so.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 12, 2021 16:22:33 GMT -6
It really does seem like the seasons have shifted a bit over the past 10-15 years or so. Totally agree. We might as well start switching them ourselves. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2021 17:17:33 GMT -6
if the 18z gfs is right, and of course it is, it'll be 70 on Christmas again. lol. This is entirely possible.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2021 17:24:58 GMT -6
if the 18z gfs is right, and of course it is, it'll be 70 on Christmas again. lol. This is entirely possible. I’d be willing to take that bet over a white Christmas |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2021 17:48:34 GMT -6
Well My birthday is the day after, and 70 does not sound bad, as I very much dislike having a winter birthday.
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Post by bear1 on Dec 12, 2021 17:50:48 GMT -6
I just flipped a coin... "heads" it'll snow on Christmas--- "Tails" it'll be 70 degrees....... I just lost my damn coin!!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2021 18:05:42 GMT -6
I just flipped a coin... "heads" it'll snow on Christmas--- "Tails" it'll be 70 degrees....... I just lost my damn coin!! It got buried in all of that future snow. |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 12, 2021 18:18:29 GMT -6
Something I have noticed on last several GFS runs is the big Low pressure storms coming down and hitting SoCal off of the Pacific instead of sliding down the coast. Pretty sure if that verifies we will be under a pretty strong ridge. Those storms would have nothing but Pacific air for us anyway. Hope my thinking is wrong.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 12, 2021 18:56:46 GMT -6
Something I have noticed on last several GFS runs is the big Low pressure storms coming down and hitting SoCal off of the Pacific instead of sliding down the coast. Pretty sure if that verifies we will be under a pretty strong ridge. Those storms would have nothing but Pacific air for us anyway. Hope my thinking is wrong. Saw several storms coming down the California coast and then moving in to the desert southwest. Doesn't do anything for us. But it would be helpful to calm the drought and fire situation in that area. At least it would be a drop in the bucket. |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 12, 2021 19:19:00 GMT -6
Something I have noticed on last several GFS runs is the big Low pressure storms coming down and hitting SoCal off of the Pacific instead of sliding down the coast. Pretty sure if that verifies we will be under a pretty strong ridge. Those storms would have nothing but Pacific air for us anyway. Hope my thinking is wrong. Saw several storms coming down the California coast and then moving in to the desert southwest. Doesn't do anything for us. But it would be helpful to calm the drought and fire situation in that area. At least it would be a drop in the bucket. Oh yes, they certainly need what is coming and what is forecast on the models. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 12, 2021 19:24:26 GMT -6
The cold fronts and snow on the models particularly the GFS look so promising at 7-10 days to only turn into rain to dry to one day of modified arctic cold by followed seasonal weather the next day and then 3-5 days of warmth after that (possible records). Then some severe wx? Rinse repeat the past 3ish wks. And this pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future. This Dec will go down as one of the warmest on record. The question is will it be top 10, top 5 all depending on when we see our digital fantasy cold and snow haha!
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 12, 2021 19:30:24 GMT -6
Some interesting storm morphology on those two deadly EF3 tornadoes in the area. In both cases storm morphology began as more of a QLCS with embedded supercells in which the cell quickly evolved out into a proper discrete classic supercell with distinct tornado producing low level mesocyclone. The Defiance storm illustrated with ~20 minutes between images:   |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 12, 2021 21:46:38 GMT -6
Let's all take a moment and thank Chris and Glenn and all of the Mets in broadcast and the nws for their efforts this weekend. They undoubtedly saved lives and no doubt feel an incredible emotional burden. They all have my admiration.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2021 21:54:57 GMT -6
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Post by amstilost on Dec 12, 2021 23:28:39 GMT -6
I have also noticed a consistent signal for a heavy rain event south of us after our frontal passage on the 16th. The GFS has consistently shown the front stalling out to our south over central Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky for several days until another system kicks through with more rain on the 20th. 5-7" being shown but if the kicker system gains a little strength it could have more wind with it which could cause problems with saturated soil even though most trees have lost all their leaves. Something to monitor since it appears not much snow to talk about yet. I know my tall oak trees without any leaves sure were swaying big time after the frontal passage Friday night and all day Saturday. It was very windy.
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Post by jeepers on Dec 13, 2021 2:48:56 GMT -6
I’ll take anything but the “i” word.
I have a lot of holiday stuff to do but I have the urge to plant spring bulbs. Yeah, that’s nuts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2021 9:09:28 GMT -6
Models still show the MJO entering a more supportive phase 7-1 later this month...hopefully a signal of a wholesale pattern change that long range progs have been hinting at.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Dec 13, 2021 9:29:13 GMT -6
So, is there a chance of more severe weather Wednesday night? We certainly don't need that.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2021 9:39:14 GMT -6
So, is there a chance of more severe weather Wednesday night? We certainly don't need that. Dosent look like the instability will be there Wednesday night. Which is probably a good thing because some of the hodographs around here would be supportive of tornadoes. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 13, 2021 11:03:00 GMT -6
Holy smokes. Mid 60s on Christmas?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2021 11:12:42 GMT -6
I don't know. This pattern change seems very slow to evolve. A little step down this weekend before it gets warm again near Christmas, followed by maybe colder after that. Also it'll probably be short lived and the January thaw will kick in by mid January. I guess we'll see.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2021 11:54:07 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen references 2010-2011 in his latest tweet, saying the gfs shows some of the key ingredients that set that up.
That was an awesome winter for STL and Chicago.
Trying to be optimistic, but that’s hard when even Chicago is about to break the record for latest first measurable snow.
I’m all for snow in November and banking it early. Better to have some than end up with nothing.
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