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Post by mchafin on Dec 13, 2021 12:10:18 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen references 2010-2011 in his latest tweet, saying the gfs shows some of the key ingredients that set that up. That was an awesome winter for STL and Chicago. Trying to be optimistic, but that’s hard when even Chicago is about to break the record for latest first measurable snow. I’m all for snow in November and banking it early. Better to have some than end up with nothing. In the 2010-2011 season, For StL anyway, December was below average for highs and lows and above average for snowfall. January was same. February was about average for highs and lows but above average for snow. March was above average for snow. At this point, the average for December is WAY above average for highs and lows and trending towards WAY below average for snow. Jan-Mar would have to be crazy good for Dr. Cohen's 2010-2011 to materialize. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2021 12:55:15 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen references 2010-2011 in his latest tweet, saying the gfs shows some of the key ingredients that set that up. That was an awesome winter for STL and Chicago. Trying to be optimistic, but that’s hard when even Chicago is about to break the record for latest first measurable snow. I’m all for snow in November and banking it early. Better to have some than end up with nothing. In the 2010-2011 season, For StL anyway, December was below average for highs and lows and above average for snowfall. January was same. February was about average for highs and lows but above average for snow. March was above average for snow. At this point, the average for December is WAY above average for highs and lows and trending towards WAY below average for snow. Jan-Mar would have to be crazy good for Dr. Cohen's 2010-2011 to materialize. He was referring to the potential negative NAO and strong Greenland blocking showing up in the long range gfs. He said it needs to couple with the North Pacific block like what happened in 2010/2011. He wasn’t actually stating that was his prediction for this winter. My point was simply that STL and Chicago both did really well when those three things above happened. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2021 13:04:11 GMT -6
The 10 day Euro forecast is hot garbage. I would rather have some near misses than absolutely nothing to track all the way through Christmas.
It’s weird when a “White Easter” is more likely than a “White Christmas” but that seems to be our reality now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2021 13:54:50 GMT -6
Really not a great look for late December on the EPS. It’s advertising a largely zonal flow over the eastern US Not a blowtorch or anything, but I can’t see much cold or snow in that pattern either  |
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Post by tedrick65 on Dec 13, 2021 14:01:36 GMT -6
The 10 day Euro forecast is hot garbage. I would rather have some near misses than absolutely nothing to track all the way through Christmas. It’s weird when a “White Easter” is more likely than a “White Christmas” but that seems to be our reality now. Given that Easter 2022 is on April 17th, that would be quite an anomalous reality. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2021 14:37:04 GMT -6
The 10 day Euro forecast is hot garbage. I would rather have some near misses than absolutely nothing to track all the way through Christmas. It’s weird when a “White Easter” is more likely than a “White Christmas” but that seems to be our reality now. Given that Easter 2022 is on April 17th, that would be quite an anomalous reality. Not hard to have better odds when the odds of one are 0% **Im being intentionally hyperbolic |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2021 15:05:47 GMT -6
Really not a great look for late December on the EPS. It’s advertising a largely zonal flow over the eastern US Not a blowtorch or anything, but I can’t see much cold or snow in that pattern either That's a better look than what we've seen most of this month, but definitely not great. I could see an oozing cold/overrunning scenario developing in that pattern, but it would heavily rely on arctic airmass and a well timed shortwave to coax it south of the border. Ideally, the ridge off the Aleutians would move towards the Gulf of AK while the -NAO ridge backs further West. That would set up a pattern like we saw in 2010/11 like WSC mentioned. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2021 15:24:04 GMT -6
To stay with my optimistic roots, the only thing really worth watching is a potential storm around Tuesday next week. Most operational runs have had the northern stream wave dominant, keeping the southern component suppressed before something big blows up on the east coast. However, there have consistently been a handful of ensembles across the operational models which have spun up the southern low generating a nice winter storm in our region. Very low probability, but if you are starving for something to track, that is about it. Check out ensemble 13 from the 12z euro for an example of what I’m talking about. weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/m13_snow-depth-in/20211222-0600z.html |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2021 17:29:20 GMT -6
The amount of personal items, many of which are pictures, being found in the Louisville area from Mayfield is insane. There is a Facebook group dedicated to it.
Also, I encourage folks to donate anything to our neighbors to the south. They’re living a nightmare and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2021 17:51:04 GMT -6
It's absolutely unbelievable how far debris can travel when a violent tornado lofts it into the jetstream. Louisville is approx 175 miles downstream of Mayfield from my estimation.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2021 18:30:22 GMT -6
It's absolutely unbelievable how far debris can travel when a violent tornado lofts it into the jetstream. Louisville is approx 175 miles downstream of Mayfield from my estimation. Also shows the intensity of the LLJ and incredible upward motion of this tornado. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 13, 2021 21:15:52 GMT -6
The amount of personal items, many of which are pictures, being found in the Louisville area from Mayfield is insane. There is a Facebook group dedicated to it. Also, I encourage folks to donate anything to our neighbors to the south. They’re living a nightmare and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. I was planning to donate exclusively to local food pantries, but I found a group in KY accepting donations and it is credible and all the funds go to outreach. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 13, 2021 22:25:41 GMT -6
Models showing 50-60kt winds in the boundary layer Wednesday night with no inversion. Could get windy.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 14, 2021 8:32:10 GMT -6
Now THIS is the kind of snowstorm we need around here!!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2021 9:59:37 GMT -6
Good call by Friv about the S/E component to the wind keeping the blowtorch in check. Even though we're under a 582dm ridge, temps aren't going through the roof. Tomorrow definitely looks warmer though, although clouds could temper that just a bit. The record may be safe after all...but still in jeopardy if we get full sunshine tomorrow afternoon.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2021 12:15:25 GMT -6
After yesterday's data for Dec we are 9.3 above normal for avg temps at KSTL! What's crazy...avg high is 60.2 and avg low is 36.0. The lump sum avg is 48.1 for both the high and low temp. Currently, we are on track for the 3rd warmest Dec on record. After this week, we will move to second warmest on record: 48.3 (1877). The warmest is 49.8 (1889)! So both those records are 130+ years old! Coldest temp is only 24. Warmest temp is 76. This is our heat island effect location. At KSUS and other small airports, the avg low so far is obviously colder than 36.0!
Of course who knows where we will end when the month ends, but we know the trend so far this month. As worldseries was saying that a pattern change like 2010-11 (more wintry) would come from a -NAO, a Greenland High Block, and a North Pacific High Block. Who knows if that will happen later this month. Let's hope!
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Post by amstilost on Dec 14, 2021 13:45:05 GMT -6
Seems kind of counter-intuitive here that the top 2 El Nino's are from 1877-78 and 1888-89. It would be nice to be able to know the MJO and all the other indices during this time period. To me this should be where a lot of research could be focused. Would ice cores be able to pin point the different indices? Or has it already been done.  Clicky |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2021 14:03:19 GMT -6
Looks to get a wee bit breezy in the central US tomorrow  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2021 14:36:17 GMT -6
Can't wait for the hurricane tomorrow. Gonna be out reporting in it. Will have video up on twitter.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 14, 2021 14:36:34 GMT -6
Some unexpected rain right now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2021 14:40:35 GMT -6
Something else to keep an eye on tomorrow; the state of Minnesota has never recorded a tornado in the month of December. They certainly have a chance tomorrow. Much of the state is still covered in snow as well.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 14, 2021 14:55:00 GMT -6
I haven't been watching the forecasts but I didn't know we had a chance of rain today....bring it. Light/moderate rain and 'chilly'
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2021 14:56:25 GMT -6
Something else to keep an eye on tomorrow; the state of Minnesota has never recorded a tornado in the month of December. They certainly have a chance tomorrow. Much of the state is still covered in snow as well. this tweet sums it up pretty well too... crazy system |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2021 15:19:29 GMT -6
Wind Advisory up almost area wide but the southern phelps and Dent Counties in Missouri. Winds up to 45 to 50 MPH in gusts Wednesday afternoon.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2021 15:51:57 GMT -6
The ensembles, operationals, everything continue to be pure garbage for the rest of the year. Some subtle changes towards the last few days maybe. But this is just ridiculous.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 14, 2021 15:53:43 GMT -6
Is my memory faulty? Prior to this season I don't recall the term “atmospheric river“ being used with such regularity. Now it seems like it's used repeatedly any time a wet low pressure system comes in anywhere on the Pacific coast.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2021 16:51:34 GMT -6
Is my memory faulty? Prior to this season I don't recall the term “atmospheric river“ being used with such regularity. Now it seems like it's used repeatedly any time a wet low pressure system comes in anywhere on the Pacific coast. I think it has taken over from "pineapple express" |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2021 16:55:42 GMT -6
Yep atmospheric river is just the media’s new term to latch on to for ratings. I guess Pineapple Express got old. Or it means something g else to people since the movie lol, but that’s been over a decade.
On a serious note, I would think the pattern in the west should alleviate some of the drought situation? At least in CA.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 14, 2021 17:59:09 GMT -6
I remember Dr. George Fishbeck, Johnny Mountain, and Dallas Raines all used 'Pineapple Express' on ABC in SoCal when I lived there. I beleive it was used alot in the '82-83 Super El Nino.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 14, 2021 19:49:28 GMT -6
I agree with Snowman, besides some transient 1-2 day cold shots there is no meaningful winter insight. What looked decent a few days ago now looks average to above average in the extended. Hopefully January something changes. Brutal pattern
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