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Post by jmg378s on Dec 15, 2021 12:20:35 GMT -6
Wouldn’t be surprised if the SPC upgrades to a 15% tornado risk across parts of Iowa later. The 12z CAMs are showing a high end tornado environment evolving around there this evening. Could even make the case for categorical high risk due to wind. Winds aloft are so strong a simple shower might almost be able to bring down damaging winds. Appears to be a high degree of certainty that a convective line will develop and impact particular locations. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2021 12:26:21 GMT -6
Des Moines record for today was 59. It's currently 72. Clouds are messing up our record chances. That's pretty sad.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 15, 2021 12:42:03 GMT -6
Des Moines record for today was 59. It's currently 72. Clouds are messing up our record chances. That's pretty sad. I had to go back and look just because of what I had been looking at the last couple of days would have made 59* very unusual with all the other records being near 70. I found record for December in Des Moines is 69* on 12/4 in 2017 and 5 other years. It doesn't change the fact it is still sad.....and stupid. Verifiable Clicky |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 15, 2021 12:43:05 GMT -6
I think Omaha has a record of 71. We are currently at 69.
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Post by eurekakim on Dec 15, 2021 12:48:06 GMT -6
So my son who goes to college in suburb of Des Moines drove down to oskaloosa IA and will stay the night there. We have a lot of family in central Iowa who suffered from the derecho last summer, and I’m praying everyone stays safe with any weather that develops.
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Post by eurekakim on Dec 15, 2021 12:49:52 GMT -6
And it’s 76 in Oskaloosa, then tomorrow there only high of 43. Dang.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 13:51:20 GMT -6
Here comes the wind...starting to get pretty gusty in Alton.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2021 13:51:34 GMT -6
Looks like a confirmed tornado already in NE.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 15, 2021 14:13:44 GMT -6
That clicky I posted a few posts back has some breakdowns of percentages for various temps achieved or surpassed in the month of Dec. I wish the same info could be standardized for each NWS location to at least be able to make a search for notable events a kind of 'apples to apples' comparison. In the top ten Warmest list for Des Moines 1889 heads the list like our records but 1877 is nowhere in their like our #2 event is. The relative closeness of STL to Des Moines would lead you to the conclusion that a specific 'localized' phenonmenon occured for STL to have been as warm in Dec. 1877. Maybe downsloping or compressional heating helped. I don't know, just throwing out how many variables there can be and I only named a few.
Number of Years with Max of 60 degrees or Higher: 44 (31% of the years)
Number of Years with Max of 50 degrees or Higher: 122 (85% of the years)
Number of Years with Max of 40 degrees or Higher: 141 (99% of the years)
All Decembers have had at least 1 day with a high above freezing. 1983 had the fewest with 4.
Number of Years with Min of 10 degrees or Lower: 136 (95% of the years)
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Post by amstilost on Dec 15, 2021 14:16:47 GMT -6
Here comes the wind...starting to get pretty gusty in Alton. Was out running the R/C car (grandson was  ) 45 minutes ago and we had a strong 35-40 gust blow through, then within 2 minutes a 30-35 gust blew through the complete opposite way. Numerous 'Dust Devils' errr "Leaf Devils" spun up also. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 14:22:28 GMT -6
Modern day dust bowl going on in the plains right now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 15:09:46 GMT -6
Classic "candy cane" presentation with this storm. That bow is flying!
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Post by amstilost on Dec 15, 2021 15:16:16 GMT -6
I'm down to 68* after a highof 70* at some point. Clouds thinned out earlier for a very short time. I guess the record of 76* in STL will hold for a little while anyway. Still 16 days left in Dec. Lots can happen the way this year is going.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 15:27:16 GMT -6
Western Iowa looks absolutely ripe for strong tornadoes as that line approaches. Absolutely ridiculous amount of shear and SRH combined with 1500J/kg of instability.3 km CAPE is high as well  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2021 15:34:14 GMT -6
this looks like a non-white Christmas. From the disco:
Deterministic guidance begins to hint on a building upper level
ridge over the central plains, coinciding with surface high pressure
through the Mississippi River Valley. Cluster analysis from days 3-7
build in a longwave ridge pattern with magnitude only strengthen the
idea of another period of potentially anomalous warmth as we close
in on the holiday period.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 15, 2021 15:43:11 GMT -6
Sirens blaring in Sarpy County, south of Omaha. Tornado warnings are out for little spin-ups and radar indicated ones. The news said Lincoln Airport is sheltering in the basement. Crazy freaking weather.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 15:49:04 GMT -6
Western Iowa looks absolutely ripe for strong tornadoes as that line approaches. Absolutely ridiculous amount of shear and SRH combined with 1500J/kg of instability.3 km CAPE is high as well The only mitigating factor I see there is the subtle back/veer in the mid-levels which sometimes causes storm splits. But in such a strongly forced environment, it probably is moot. Definitely a prime setup. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 16:01:02 GMT -6
Tornadoes moving into the snow field across NE Nebraska...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2021 16:14:55 GMT -6
Just got back from a doctor appointment. Driving with my arm out the window I would occasionally feel a few drops of rain. Has to be small drops because I never saw them on the windshield.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 15, 2021 16:19:57 GMT -6
Well it looks like DM got one thing correct for December.......absolutely no record lows......
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 16:37:24 GMT -6
Not very far behind the line of severe storms, some snow squall warnings are going up.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2021 16:38:47 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2021 16:47:00 GMT -6
Is radar scope down again?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 16:49:38 GMT -6
Is radar scope down again? Ya they just tweeted they are having issues. Not the best time for that to happen |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2021 16:56:21 GMT -6
KY tornado final rating is EF4... 190 MPH
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 16:59:27 GMT -6
That storm near Atlantic,IA may have a TDS on it
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2021 17:06:21 GMT -6
KY tornado final rating is EF4... 190 MPH Kind of surprised, kind of not. In some areas here and there it had that EF-5 look in my opinion. Maybe they will find higher end damage in AR, MO, or TN? Down by the river on the MO side someone had a video of a line of large trees completely snapped and debarked. There wasn’t a lot of debris at that time to do that so it mainly came from wind/soil abrasion at that particular spot. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 17:19:54 GMT -6
KY tornado final rating is EF4... 190 MPH Kind of surprised, kind of not. In some areas here and there it had that EF-5 look in my opinion. Maybe they will find higher end damage in AR, MO, or TN? Down by the river on the MO side someone had a video of a line of large trees completely snapped and debarked. There wasn’t a lot of debris at that time to do that so it mainly came from wind/soil abrasion at that particular spot. I have little doubt that it produced EF5 winds at times along much of it's path. The gate-to-gate shear was nearly off the charts at times. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 17:21:12 GMT -6
Radarscope is starting to seem a bit unreliable, TBH...
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2021 17:24:05 GMT -6
According to this tweet i posted earlier it says preliminary.. |
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) 45 minutes ago and we had a strong 35-40 gust blow through, then within 2 minutes a 30-35 gust blew through the complete opposite way. Numerous 'Dust Devils' errr "Leaf Devils" spun up also.
