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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 17:27:14 GMT -6
Radarscope is starting to seem a bit unreliable, TBH... Radar Omega is a pretty good alternative. It has some cool features such a METARs displayed and multiple base map options. I’ve found it’s not nearly as polished an app as RadarScope (tends to drain battery and can feel “clunky” at times) but a viable alternative regardless. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 17:29:42 GMT -6
This is easily one of the most impressive QLCS outbreaks I've seen. The line in IA is chock full of kinks and couplets with blanket TOR warnings. Unreal!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 17:30:38 GMT -6
Radarscope is starting to seem a bit unreliable, TBH... Radar Omega is a pretty good alternative. It has some cool features such a METARs displayed and multiple base map options. I’ve found it’s not nearly as polished an app as RadarScope (tends to drain battery and can feel “clunky” at times) but a viable alternative regardless. Might have to look into that...I've heard Timmer mention it before. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 17:38:41 GMT -6
This is easily one of the most impressive QLCS outbreaks I've seen. The line in IA is chock full of kinks and couplets with blanket TOR warnings. Unreal! This is shaping up to be a major serial derecho event for the upper Midwest. Not that it really matters, but looks like a wind driven high risk is going to verify. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2021 17:40:52 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2021 17:41:56 GMT -6
Mesoscale Discussion 2035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Areas affected...Portions of southwest into northeast Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 152330Z - 160100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Several severe wind gusts (a few over 65+ kt) are expected
across central Missouri as a mature squall line with a history
significant severe winds approaches from the west. A WW issuance
will be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...A mature squall line with embedded supercells is
rapidly progressing across extreme northwest MO/eastern KS and is
expected to enter central MO over the next couple of hours. The
squall line has a history of several severe gusts, including
measurements over 65 kts. The 986 mb surface low across northeast NE
continues to deepen while tracking towards MN. Current thinking is
that better deep-layer ascent/buoyancy and the corridor of most
significant severe will gradually shift northeast with the low
through the evening. However, the severe wind threat is expected to
persist with the KS/MO segment of the squall for at least a few more
hours, which would include areas east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
564. As such, a WW issuance will be needed soon.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/15/2021
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 15, 2021 17:51:39 GMT -6
I think we will need to watch the storms later for severe potential….. damaging winds seem very possible
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 17:55:55 GMT -6
I think we will need to watch the storms later for severe potential….. damaging winds seem very possible Agreed. Even though the strong LLJ core shifts off to the NE overnight, winds just off the deck are still forecast to be ~50kts when the line comes through. It won't take much to pull that down to the surface. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 18:04:15 GMT -6
Im counting 6+ areas of potential spin ups along this line of storms in Iowa. Seems like a nightmare to try and warn for  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 18:13:21 GMT -6
That big supercell just south of KC is really trying to wrap up.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2021 18:21:53 GMT -6
That big supercell just south of KC is really trying to wrap up. It sure is. It’s shown some impressive broad rotation but isn’t able to tighten up and is getting occluded. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2021 18:55:14 GMT -6
Channel 5 out of Des Moines is non-stop live streaming severe weather coverage on YouTube if anyone wants to watch.
Edited to add - sounds like they are going to stop the stream at 7 pm.
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Dec 15, 2021 19:22:27 GMT -6
Just received an emergency alert on my phone for a severe thunderstorm with destructive winds in excess of 80 mph.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2021 19:39:34 GMT -6
That line moving through Western MO is razor thin.
Looks like the storms are shearing towards the NE as you go up in height.
I would think that would hurt hall chances.
Who knows.... You guys probably do. I'm just guessing.
I honestly just want lightening strikes and deafening thunder.
I love when the thunder is explosive.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 19:53:02 GMT -6
According to this tweet i posted earlier it says preliminary.. No doubt in my mind that tornado had EF5 wind speeds as it was impacting communities in Kentucky, but it’s important to keep in mind that the EF scale is a damage scale and not a tornado strength scale. That in itself is a fundamental flaw of the EF scale. An EF5 actually has to hit a well built structure to be classified as EF5. I always wondered with radar technology increasing and the use of mobile radars increasing if radar data could be used to determine the EF strength of a tornado. I believe radar data was used to modify the EL Reno tornado EF rating. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2021 19:59:02 GMT -6
We've now had the power go out (for as long as 2 minutes) and then come back on at least 6 times. Happy it keeps coming back on but I wish it would quit going down.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 15, 2021 20:02:36 GMT -6
No doubt in my mind that tornado had EF5 wind speeds as it was impacting communities in Kentucky, but it’s important to keep in mind that the EF scale is a damage scale and not a tornado strength scale. That in itself is a fundamental flaw of the EF scale. An EF5 actually has to hit a well built structure to be classified as EF5. I always wondered with radar technology increasing and the use of mobile radars increasing if radar data could be used to determine the EF strength of a tornado. I believe radar data was used to modify the EL Reno tornado EF rating. That’s such a great point ….. if an F-5 forms and stays over farm land it’s like it never existed….. which isn’t true |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2021 20:03:54 GMT -6
Wind really starting to pick up now as that 60kt+ LLJ moves overhead.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2021 20:25:05 GMT -6
That wind was insane. Saw several gusts in excess of 80 earlier today.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2021 20:29:59 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 15, 2021 20:51:28 GMT -6
I have very little doubt that somewhere along the exceptionally long path of the KY tornado that winds >200mph occurred...very likely in suction vortices. But as 920 already pointed out the amount of surface area on Earth that has something on it that could even qualify as an EF5 damage indicator is miniscule. And even if a rare violent tornado hits that rare spot the surveyors that have a say have to find it and realize it for what it is. There's really a LOT stacked against EF5 damage determination.
Having said that NWS was clear this is a preliminary rating and with additional details forthcoming "when they become available". For example still nothing definitive on max width nor where the EF4 damage indicators were found. Nor has it been confirmed yet where the start and end points are.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 15, 2021 20:53:06 GMT -6
128 miles, just for that office to survey in W KY. A monster tornado moving ~60 mph. Unreal.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2021 21:03:43 GMT -6
getting gusts to 50 in warrenton
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Post by bear1 on Dec 15, 2021 21:17:04 GMT -6
Barely a light breeze here in Bourbon, Mo.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2021 21:23:19 GMT -6
I love when the thunder is explosive. Man did I read that wrong and laughed outloud! Thought you had diareha or something lol. |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 15, 2021 21:24:21 GMT -6
getting gusts to 50 in warrenton At least that at times down south in Marthasville. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2021 21:24:23 GMT -6
could we set a record high at midnight? The record for tomorrow in 70, at 9pm it had risen to 70. Going to be close.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2021 21:24:56 GMT -6
It’s windy, but nothing extreme out here in Fletcher. I thought it would be worse.
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Post by tedrick65 on Dec 15, 2021 22:05:30 GMT -6
Wind is roaring in High Ridge
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 15, 2021 22:35:31 GMT -6
When will the winds start to die down.
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