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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 25, 2021 18:51:16 GMT -6
North America is a big place. It's a given that a good part of Canada will get very cold. Bit to get in our little corner of the continent is going to take some massive underdoing. I'll believe it when it's actually happening.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 25, 2021 20:02:03 GMT -6
North America is a big place. It's a given that a good part of Canada will get very cold. Bit to get in our little corner of the continent is going to take some massive underdoing. I'll believe it when it's actually happening. I’m skeptical of any sustained cold here right now, but the PNA looks like it will finally get out of the gutter and back towards neutral in 10-14 days. Let’s hope it actually happens.  |
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Post by weatherman222 on Dec 25, 2021 21:30:36 GMT -6
Bit off topic, but I'm thinking about getting my Part 107 License for a drone. My guess is that some of you have gotten it already. If so, where can I find info on reading metar and taf reports. Also, what is the best way to study for it. I know there are a lot of YouTube videos out there, but my guess is that most are a waste of time. TIA. I run a rather large YouTube drone & rc channel. I have too many drones. Lol. I actually have not found a reason yet to get my 107 but let me ask my friend over at Idaho Quadcopter where he studied to pass the test. PM if you wish. What drones do you own? What's your channel? I bought a DJI Mavic Mini 2 this spring and love it. I've done over 100 flights so far this year. Actually had it out today looking at tornado damage. I still don't have my license though. Didn't really feel like anything Ive done so far would require it. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 25, 2021 22:23:36 GMT -6
00z GFS is going gang busters w/ a rain to winter storm across the Midwest next weekend. What a beautiful shortwave trough that digs all the way south to TX/Mexico. Lots of possible outcomes will be shown between now then. At least, the wx's going to be much more exciting to follow for us winter weather lovers! Hope everyone had a pleasant Christmas!
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Post by RyanD on Dec 25, 2021 22:45:58 GMT -6
I run a rather large YouTube drone & rc channel. I have too many drones. Lol. I actually have not found a reason yet to get my 107 but let me ask my friend over at Idaho Quadcopter where he studied to pass the test. PM if you wish. What drones do you own? What's your channel? I bought a DJI Mavic Mini 2 this spring and love it. I've done over 100 flights so far this year. Actually had it out today looking at tornado damage. I still don't have my license though. Didn't really feel like anything Ive done so far would require it. Here is my channel. youtube.com/c/RDsDroneReviewsI have that original Mavic Mini along with an Autel Evo and a bunch more. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 25, 2021 22:55:31 GMT -6
There is some DENSE fog here in Arnold right now
The GEM also has a big time ice and snow storm here next weekend
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 25, 2021 23:13:12 GMT -6
What a historic run on the 00z GFS. More ice and snow after the weekend system. Let's hope there's support in the ensembles tomorrow and this is a trend from the GEM and GFS.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 25, 2021 23:37:10 GMT -6
If the GFS is right we would have a historic ice storm ….. power would be out until March lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 25, 2021 23:49:19 GMT -6
If your bored check out the totaled accumulated snowfall depth change of the GFS at hour 384 on Pivotal weather It includes sleet in its calculation |
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Post by thechaser on Dec 26, 2021 0:01:54 GMT -6
Dense fog advisory out for the entire CWA
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 26, 2021 0:55:35 GMT -6
Decent signal on the GEFS for a Colorado low to form Friday and track possibly south of our area which would put us in a winter weather threat....possibly. Conceptually it looks like a good setup around here for something wintry with that high pushing in from southern Canada.  |
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Post by REB on Dec 26, 2021 8:17:11 GMT -6
I don’t like 70 in December but I really hate ice storms. We had to cancel our Yellowstone trip for January so just a good snow fall would work.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 26, 2021 10:13:14 GMT -6
Seems to me that Baja low is going to eject too quickly and be a cutter.
Really our only hope is that the models are too strong with the lead wave.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 26, 2021 10:26:40 GMT -6
Seems to me that Baja low is going to eject too quickly and be a cutter. Really our only hope is that the models are too strong with the lead wave. Ya were probably going to need this to come out as multiple waves to coax that cold air down. That GFS run on the surface charts doesn't look like much around here, but it's tracking a good-looking 500mb vort near our wheelhouse Sunday morning |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 26, 2021 10:33:01 GMT -6
Seems to me that Baja low is going to eject too quickly and be a cutter. Really our only hope is that the models are too strong with the lead wave. Ya were probably going to need this to come out as multiple waves to coax that cold air down. That GFS run on the surface charts doesn't look like much around here, but it's tracking a good-looking 500mb vort near our wheelhouse Sunday morning We know from watching the models for all these years that they struggle with this setup. History has shown that the cutter tends to be more likely. However, there has been a bias of late to intensify the lead wave way too much at this range. It is worth watching at the very least. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 26, 2021 10:34:44 GMT -6
Meh
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 26, 2021 10:48:57 GMT -6
Meh too. I am so lucky I grew up during the seventies and eighties because winters here are zero fun at all anymore.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 26, 2021 11:02:10 GMT -6
GEM has the right idea, but it also decides to unleash the arctic in the Midwest next weekend which suppresses the secondary development to our south and east. Its overall setup is exactly what need with a lead wave setting the cold in place and then the trough ejecting with the main energy.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 26, 2021 11:05:18 GMT -6
Chicago forecast will equal a 36.5* average Dec. temp which puts them at #10 between 1941(36.4) and 1971(36.7)
St. Louis forecast will equal a 49.36* average Dec. temp which puts us at #2 between 1889(49.8) and 1877(48.3)
Wow, our average the next 6 days is 51*. Again, this was looking at the forecast temps for the next 6 days at STL. It was pretty easy to get the highs and lows for Chicago because the Arctic front had moved through there. Our temps are a little harder to decipher because several are at midnight and very warm so STL average temp could 'creep' upwards a little. All of this is contingent on what day the Arctic front moves through. So, is it safe to say that in 1877 and 1889 the monthly average temps were because NO Arctic fronts moved through in Dec. of those years? I know that statement seems like a no-brainer but what(teleconnection/s) specifically caused it? It appears 1877 and 1889 were, in fact, El Nino years based on Scott Sabol's paper on the Top 10 El Nino's. I know this has been mentioned before. 2015 is #3, soon to be #4, on the list. What exactly happened that year teleconnection wise? Is it easy to look up? 2012 is #9, soon to be #10, on this list also. I remember 2012 as a 'drought year' being the explanation for the 'warm'(hot) temps that year. Just more fascinating facets of weather.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 26, 2021 11:45:42 GMT -6
Going with, maybe, a little bit of a stretch here being 'weather' related'. I know I have heard that during dry/drought times there has been 'burn bans' because of fire danger. My wife and I generate very little trash. All food waste and most (75-80%) paper/cardboard goes into compost/garden/chicken use. This makes for a 'every other week' disposal at the curb. Naturally, we can't get our monthly cost for trash service any lower. So, we only 'use' the service half of the time and we just got hit with a 30% increase. WTH? Could this increase be the reason I see a lot more trash on the side of the road and smell more 'burns' going lately, or just coincidence? There is no law against burning trash that I have found. Maybe on tires and wire coating removal but that doesn't seem to stop people. Rant over. My New's Year's Resolution will be to try and 'rant less', especially concerning weather.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 26, 2021 13:08:15 GMT -6
Euro has a little secondary development action now Sunday as well.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 26, 2021 13:46:00 GMT -6
nothin stoppin' that nina flow on the NWPAC coast
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 26, 2021 17:46:17 GMT -6
The GEM looks somewhat like Jan 2014 towards NYD with the vortex dropping in and trying to phase with the energy swinging out of the 4 corners. Would love to see a setup like that. But it also bombs the secondary out to like 950mb along the NE coast so it may be overdone, lol. Crazy things can happen when you get Siberian airmass sloshing around though...we need to keep an eye on next week.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 26, 2021 17:52:37 GMT -6
Those are some monster storms interacting/circling/Fujiwhara'ing each other in the North Central Atlantic. And it doesn't happen just once. It looks like 3 separate times this occurs on the 18z GFS. I'm talking 950 and 960mb lows. It looks like once those storms 'relax' to a single, weakening 985mb low, a powerhouse 962mb low gets cranking in the Great Lakes. The only thing that storm does is it gives us some cold air for a short while before the ridge builds back in from the west. Granted, this is out at the end of it's run. Edit: While it takes me 15-20 minutes of toggling back and forth between frames to come up with a coherent post, someone beats me to the punch.  |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 26, 2021 18:00:09 GMT -6
I seen all the isobars packed together in the Atlantic and I had to pull up Tropical Tidbits site to be able to see the NC Atlantic. Those look like crazy strong systems.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 26, 2021 21:47:52 GMT -6
It’s getting pretty windy all a sudden.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 26, 2021 21:51:09 GMT -6
My, my did it get windy or what? My house is creeking. I must of just had a 35 mph gust, judging by the noise the house made.  |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 26, 2021 21:52:32 GMT -6
It’s getting pretty windy all a sudden. Now I know how Snowman feels.  |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 26, 2021 22:17:57 GMT -6
So did anyone get anything weather related for Christmas?
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Post by toddatfarmington on Dec 26, 2021 22:18:26 GMT -6
Bit off topic, but I'm thinking about getting my Part 107 License for a drone. My guess is that some of you have gotten it already. If so, where can I find info on reading metar and taf reports. Also, what is the best way to study for it. I know there are a lot of YouTube videos out there, but my guess is that most are a waste of time. TIA. [ www.dronepilotgroundschool.com/This is who I used and have sent several people Through to complete part 107 certification |
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