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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 26, 2021 22:27:56 GMT -6
I really hope people aren't betting on anything wintry next weekend around here. Very likely it's going to be rain to cold and dry.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 26, 2021 23:12:32 GMT -6
I really hope people aren't betting on anything wintry next weekend around here. Very likely it's going to be rain to cold and dry. Nope, only you are... 🤣 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 0:33:23 GMT -6
I really hope people aren't betting on anything wintry next weekend around here. Very likely it's going to be rain to cold and dry. The euro called and would like to have a word |
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Post by thechaser on Dec 27, 2021 0:34:57 GMT -6
Euro makes things a lot more interesting again to say the least.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 0:48:35 GMT -6
Euro makes things a lot more interesting again to say the least. Big time ice storm along and south of 44 on that run
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2021 9:21:26 GMT -6
LOL
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 27, 2021 9:27:53 GMT -6
I think the EURO has conceptually speaking has the more realistic setup. Weaker high pressure and less progressive area of low pressure keeping the secondary from bombing out to a bowling ball 950mb to the NE. This helps pull the precipitation further north into our region while keeping temperatures cold enough to still be snow. I would not at all be surprised to see the GFS, GEM or both pull northward on this AMs 12z.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 27, 2021 9:30:12 GMT -6
Two things I’m not a fan of
1) When we “2 week” ourselves into Spring
2) When BRTN’s response is an “LOL” - it’s never good
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 27, 2021 9:35:18 GMT -6
Even if by some stroke of divine intervention it does snow, the last four weeks of April in December probably guarantee air snow at best.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2021 9:54:46 GMT -6
Two things I’m not a fan of 1) When we “2 week” ourselves into Spring 2) When BRTN’s response is an “LOL” - it’s never good I was just LOLing at 99s perpetual pessimism, mostly. But, he could be right. I've been banging the drum for a shot of winter weather around NYD for a while now and models are slowly but surely trending towards that. The GFS is probably doing GFS things by focusing too much energy with the lead wave which hangs up the feed of cold air and allows the frontal wave to cut over us. I'll take the EURO every time when it comes to handling low-level, stable arctic airmass and it seems to be picking up on it better. The GEM seems to be siding with the GFS so far though. That's the model to watch over the next few days to see how it trends. The GEM and GFS ensembles are closer to the EC solution, BTW...which is pretty telling at this range. This is by far the best setup we've seen so far this season...which isn't saying a whole lot, but it is encouraging. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2021 10:08:27 GMT -6
Last night's model consensus tracks the frontal wave across S MO up the Ohio River...that's a pretty supportive track for a wintry mix/ice to snow setup around these parts.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2021 10:11:21 GMT -6
Well after a record warm December, there no reason to be pessimistic about anything. 🥸 I know things can change very rapidly and a good number of our winter storms come after a very mild spell. I just want to give it a couple more days and more model agreement.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 10:13:46 GMT -6
GFS is still putting a lot of energy in that lead shortwave which leaves the main energy without much room to work when it ejects. Lots of moving pieces to figure out still
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 10:18:08 GMT -6
If the GFS is right and parts of the Deep South get accumulating snow before us I’m going to be pretty salty
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 27, 2021 10:25:34 GMT -6
If the GFS is right and parts of the Deep South get accumulating snow before us I’m going to be pretty salty Agreed. Getting any cold south this year much less that far south has been a struggle though. Models have consistently over forecast the cold air penetration just about every time which has always impacted the final track on systems even those that have been to the north. I’m not giving up hope yet. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 27, 2021 10:28:58 GMT -6
If the GFS is right and parts of the Deep South get accumulating snow before us I’m going to be pretty salty Agreed. Getting any cold south this year much less that far south has been a struggle though. Models have consistently over forecast the cold air penetration just about every time which has always impacted the final track on systems even those that have been to the north. I’m not giving up hope yet. Interesting the NWS STL just released a graphic on their FB page on exactly what I was talking about in relation to the temperature and the final track of the Low. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 27, 2021 10:35:43 GMT -6
I'm rooting for ya'll to get the set up... because that means I'll get snowed on too lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 10:41:42 GMT -6
I'm rooting for ya'll to get the set up... because that means I'll get snowed on too lol  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2021 10:52:38 GMT -6
GFS is still putting a lot of energy in that lead shortwave which leaves the main energy without much room to work when it ejects. Lots of moving pieces to figure out still Still not an ideal setup, but at least it's picking up on secondary development now. I think that lead wave will be flatter, but still enough to coax the cold air down setting the stage for the bulk of that ejecting energy behind it. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2021 10:55:57 GMT -6
Canadian still says nope.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2021 10:58:44 GMT -6
ICON and Euro look similar with a more southern route and the GFS and GEM have the more northern route and stronger LP. It would be nice to see the Euro keep its more southern route at 12z today. The gfs and gem are basically heavy rain to cold, not good for us .
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 11:02:48 GMT -6
Canadian still says nope. Ukie looks similar to the GEM. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2021 11:31:07 GMT -6
Nice to see the MJO forecast slowly creeping closer to phase 8...that's encouraging as we move into January. If we keep getting Siberian airmass moving onto this side of the pole, it could get real nasty.
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Post by jeepers on Dec 27, 2021 12:18:06 GMT -6
It's going to rain.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Dec 27, 2021 12:22:45 GMT -6
What does 12z Euro show? Do we still have hope?
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2021 12:29:47 GMT -6
Definitely hope on the Euro went even further south and colder
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2021 12:32:12 GMT -6
Euro looks good at 126, then poof all gone east. Weird.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 27, 2021 12:33:58 GMT -6
lets not even hope for snow, then we will all be happy if it does lol. at least the cold air is coming.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 12:38:27 GMT -6
Euro looks good at 126, then poof all gone east. Weird. Looks like the lead shortwave ejects, gets sheared out, then the main energy lobe ejects further south bringing the deep south some snow |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2021 12:44:33 GMT -6
That sounds like something that is very likely. Lol
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