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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 20:55:38 GMT -6
Hi res NAM looks pretty good at the end of its run with a solid shield of snow about to engulf the area and shortwave deepening  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 20:55:40 GMT -6
Trying to explain on the air at 9pm what I posted in here earlier about the "birth of a clipper"
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 20:59:41 GMT -6
Or... the NAM3km is right and we get stuck in 15 mile wide mesoscale band from hell and we get a surprise 6" by Thursday morning... I can't rule that out... but it is an outlier. Im sure if that meso band comes to fruition it will setup right over BRTNs house lol I dunno...I've caught a couple good "death bands" over the years, but honestly the Arnold/Belleville/Swansea area has done substantially better with the bigger storms lately. I can remember several events where you guys got double digits and I only got 6 or 7"...2014 is a prime example and I think last year's storm in February showed a similar outcome IIRC. Dry air loves to eat away snow here when there's a steady NE wind. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 21:10:47 GMT -6
Kinda seemed like the NAM was going to take a jog northward looking at the 500mb charts but it looks similar to the 12z run, really. That Fgen band definitely looks stout along/N of 70 into Thurs AM followed by a more broad area of snow showers. It kinda lost the higher output down south, but that may just be a blip. The mid-level charts definitely show some marginal moisture linkage developing down that way.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 21:11:44 GMT -6
Trying to explain on the air at 9pm what I posted in here earlier about the "birth of a clipper" That was a really awesome graphic! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 3, 2022 21:11:53 GMT -6
The nam has a nice piece of energy really trying very hard to deepen as it crosses into the upper Mississippi valley. We need this thing to dig a little bit sooner in a little bit more in the West and it could pick up a lot more lift. It's almost there  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 21:17:01 GMT -6
If the NAM portrayal of the 500mb shortwave is correct... it would be difficult to imagine us not getting at least a light accumulation of snow. The large scale forcing with that digging and progressively sharpening shortwave wave should be enough to overcome the dry air.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 21:20:16 GMT -6
The NAM is really getting that lead piece of energy across the Lakes out of the way quickly, allowing the digging energy to amplify as it approaches. Hopefully that trend holds up.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 21:22:17 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 21:22:35 GMT -6
And just like that... I can't get Facebook to share nicely...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 21:23:05 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2022 21:28:16 GMT -6
You did a great job explaining it !
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 21:28:35 GMT -6
RGEM cut in half on QPF.
ICON is all south.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Jan 3, 2022 21:29:40 GMT -6
And just like that... I can't get Facebook to share nicely... I don’t get to see your forecasts on t v . Your graphics are really impressive. Very well done. |
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 3, 2022 21:31:02 GMT -6
The way the models handled the current east coast storm they won’t be very helpful until about 36 hours out.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 21:33:44 GMT -6
At least the RGEM would make everyone happy. Let’s just take that solution and call it a day.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2022 21:39:27 GMT -6
At least the RGEM would make everyone happy. Let’s just take that solution and call it a day. Everyone? an inch? lol |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 21:42:04 GMT -6
At least the RGEM would make everyone happy. Let’s just take that solution and call it a day. Everyone? an inch? lol What are you looking at? It’s definitely cutdown but there’s a large 2 to 3” zone including the metro. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2022 21:46:28 GMT -6
IF the higher ratios work out. RGEM is always to juiced anyway.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 3, 2022 21:51:05 GMT -6
I'd take the regional gem.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 3, 2022 21:54:21 GMT -6
The gfs is definitely better with the vorticity.
And still bone dry
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2022 21:54:50 GMT -6
GFS is looking a little better so far…. You can see some gulf moisture coming up into Arky….. it’s getting closer
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 22:01:20 GMT -6
GFS actually cranks out some snow now in the narrow band along I-70
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 22:02:25 GMT -6
GFS looks better, definitely it’s best run yet , at least it has some precipitation
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 22:02:55 GMT -6
Small band along I 70
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2022 22:05:17 GMT -6
You can see the moisture get pulled in just to our southeast ……. If that is just a little quicker ….. this could be a game changer
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 22:11:35 GMT -6
You can see the moisture get pulled in just to our southeast ……. If that is just a little quicker ….. this could be a game changer The slower and deeper the shortwave can get the better. That will help to pull up Gulf moisture into the area and squeeze out all the pacific moisture being brought along. This is one of the rare setups around here where mixing won’t be an issue even with a stronger solution. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 22:12:42 GMT -6
Gem now looks almost bone dry in the metro on the black and white charts .
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 22:25:28 GMT -6
Seeing the GFS slowly trying to join the snow party is encouraging.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 22:47:34 GMT -6
Ukie still a no go.
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