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Post by amstilost on Jan 4, 2022 0:16:39 GMT -6
Would have been nicer to see that return-flow get going in north eastern Texas and Eastern Oklahoma instead of Louisiana and Mississippi..
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 0:20:00 GMT -6
Looks like the euro hints at that meso band along 70 but other than that pretty unremarkable.
The system looks to really get going east of here when it taps into the gulf moisture
Tennessee and Kentucky get another big snowfall as well as the northeast
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2022 1:32:47 GMT -6
The Euro offers a bit of improvement from last run. Overall, we seem to be settling into a modest consensus... one that clearly favors a much drier solution over early, mo robust solutions... which was expected.
It will be very interesting to see how things adjust (if they do) once that massive Gulf of Alaska low splinters and finally gives birth the energy that will become the clipper...AND... that energy gets sampled.
At 11pm, I went with a blanket "around 1 inch... with spots to 2" for this storm. I fully expect some bands of have nots... but until this thing gets sampled, it is wasted effort to try and nail them down.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 4, 2022 5:45:13 GMT -6
6z nam is a big hit for southeastern Missouri including the southern CWA.
This run pulls in the Gulf moisture quicker and the storm is very close to going off.
This is the outcome we need other models to trend towards. Great run
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Post by amstilost on Jan 4, 2022 6:08:43 GMT -6
Yep just seen this and wondered if this one gets thrown out or if we're going to get a surprise like the east coast and Mid-Atlantic did...
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Post by bororug on Jan 4, 2022 6:10:41 GMT -6
6z nam is a big hit for southeastern Missouri including the southern CWA. This run pulls in the Gulf moisture quicker and the storm is very close to going off. This is the outcome we need other models to trend towards. Great run Beautiful run by the 6z Nam. Improvement on the 6z GFS as well..albeit small. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 6:11:56 GMT -6
Yes while not to get too wrapped up in it nam would throw widespread snow to the area wrapping the system up quicker
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 6:25:03 GMT -6
The NAM is starting to depict a vigorous piece of energy taking the classic evolution for a moderate event here.
Things is are definitely looking much better for along and South of 44/64.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 6:32:29 GMT -6
Verbatim that would be solid advisory from Lincoln warren countoes southeast, with near warning south of 44 and 64
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 6:35:19 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 6:38:23 GMT -6
Lets just say 1 to 9 area wide and call it a day lol. All seriousness we need to get todays cold front to move through and see how the energy looks tomorrow morning in my opinion
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 6:42:23 GMT -6
The models all agree the initial push of snow into central MO is going to die out as it reaches the Western counties of the metro.
This is going to leave a dry hole between the initial push and how far NW strong development with the advecting vorticity.
Id be say Union to Mascoutah IL to the SE is in a good spot.
But further South like Farmington, st gen is closer to the bullseye.
Along to and North of 70 might end up stuck between two snow maximums.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 4, 2022 6:45:47 GMT -6
The models all agree the initial push of snow into central MO is going to die out as it reaches the Western counties of the metro. This is going to leave a dry hole between the initial push and how far NW strong development with the advecting vorticity. Id be say Union to Mascoutah IL to the SE is in a good spot. But further South like Farmington, st gen is closer to the bullseye. Along to and North of 70 might end up stuck between two snow maximums. Using Union as a reference has serious bust potential. Use Washington as the reference point instead. We all know of the fair weather bubble over Union. 😂😂😂 |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 6:45:56 GMT -6
Metro still looks goot for 1 to 3 at this stage, because this could just be the nam being the nam and juicing things up too much area wide. As of this morning there is a minimum from warrenton to troy, to jerseyville
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 6:48:20 GMT -6
The models all agree the initial push of snow into central MO is going to die out as it reaches the Western counties of the metro. This is going to leave a dry hole between the initial push and how far NW strong development with the advecting vorticity. Id be say Union to Mascoutah IL to the SE is in a good spot. But further South like Farmington, st gen is closer to the bullseye. Along to and North of 70 might end up stuck between two snow maximums. Using Union as a reference has serious bust potential. Use Washington as the reference point instead. We all know of the fair weather bubble over Union. 😂😂😂 How about that one city in Franklin county that has the muddy yards |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 7:10:34 GMT -6
I’m surprised none of you have talked about the Hi-Res 3km NAM. It’s an areawide 2 to 5” snow. Seeing that is a pretty big change up and awesome run.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 4, 2022 7:28:34 GMT -6
I’m surprised none of you have talked about the Hi-Res 3km NAM. It’s an areawide 2 to 5” snow. Seeing that is a pretty big change up and awesome run. Where you seeing that? |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 7:30:13 GMT -6
It does show 2 to 4 area wide if you look at the kuchera ratios
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 7:34:55 GMT -6
I’m surprised none of you have talked about the Hi-Res 3km NAM. It’s an areawide 2 to 5” snow. Seeing that is a pretty big change up and awesome run. Where you seeing that? The run doesn’t go out further but is still accumulating beyond the end. Take a look: imgur.com/gallery/0LRA41h |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 4, 2022 7:39:26 GMT -6
And here I was about to suggest that when you do an in depth explanation like that, you run the tape (not that you use tape anymore) again at 945 or 1010 so the info can be absorbed a little better. But this is better. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2022 7:46:56 GMT -6
Keep in mind we are in the Nam's window of juice. Seems to do this within ~48 hrs quite often.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 4, 2022 7:48:57 GMT -6
It’s gonna be cold Thursday night that’s for sure.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 4, 2022 8:14:36 GMT -6
That's a lot of "ifs"!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2022 8:15:28 GMT -6
The energy at 500mb imbedded in shortwave blows up and becomes negatively tilted once it reaches IL and the Ohio Valley late Thurs. Like everyone's saying, if this shortwave trough can dig south just a little more and sharpen over KS before moving east you'd think the snow after mesoscale bands would be a little more impressive. If the shortwave can just slow down 3-6 hrs, but as we know these systems usually come in and leave quicker than what's being modeled. The other piece to the puzzle that everyone has been talking about on here is the location of the leading energy (mesoscale band(s)). We all know you could be the best forecaster out there, but good luck on determining where the mesoscale band(s) are going to set up. I remember Chris mentioning how he got stuck under a band one time in 2010? and got 10" of snow in Chesterfield while miles away there wasn't much of anything (maybe less than 1"), correct me Chris. I agree Chris, this would be a fun storm to forecast if you weren't forecasting for the general public. It would be hard to put up a map on FB showing D-2 in with some lollipops of x inches haha!
One thing's 100% confident with this storm: there's going to be a lot of mix emotions on this board between now and come time Thursday! 😊
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 8:32:34 GMT -6
NAM was so close to something special but spit and sputters when it reaches the metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 8:39:14 GMT -6
Be interesting to see if models hold serve with that Fgen band...might be my best chance to get some meaningful accumulation up here. NWS currently has my forecast at 30% POPs for snow Thursday which seems awfully low. But I guess it's not too far off when some of these models are showing basically nothing.
I've come to dislike trying to forecast systems during La Ninas.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 8:39:37 GMT -6
NAM was so close to something special but spit and sputters when it reaches the metro. Lock it in |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 8:41:38 GMT -6
Not much on the NAM, I think an inch or less would cover this storm. If I was putting a forecast out right now it would be 50% chance of light snow on Thursday 1” or less accumulation. This covers you from nothing to about an inch. This might even be to generous . But when temps are that cold 1/2” of powder can cause a lot of traffic problems
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 8:42:59 GMT -6
Something to watch is the h85 charts...some models are trying to spin up a low down near the bootheel and far S IL. That would help draw in better moisture and get a deformation going...but it might not benefit STL much if it doesn't happen quickly enough. Tricky setup to nail down.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 8:43:07 GMT -6
I know its the end of the 12 z hrrr but it has a 2 plus inch snow right down 70 from the fgen band
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