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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2022 8:44:11 GMT -6
NAM was so close to something special but spit and sputters when it reaches the metro. Lock it in I like how your keeping expectations as low as they can go Brtn! I never really thought about la ninas and no snow. So what you were saying is every la nina is just another scenario where it doesn't snow in the central Mississippi River Valley Region haha. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 8:44:43 GMT -6
3k NAM has the I70 me so band Wednesday night after midnight into rush hour but it is skinny. If that develops there would be some happy and unhappy folks.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 8:45:34 GMT -6
Extended HRRR starting to pick up on the I70 band .
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 8:53:58 GMT -6
The HRRR definitely has a decent fgen band setting up. Using Kuchera that would be a county to county and a half wide band of 2 to 4” totals. That’s splitting hairs at this point but nice to see it’s progression makes it just to to the STL. I think that very well may be our best hope right now and could easily come in stronger as it gets closer in range. Models all catching on to that one main band with some pretty decent agreement on location.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2022 8:55:26 GMT -6
Yea, Nam has gone back to reality. We could be looking at about a 4-5 hour light snowfall, amounting to 1-2". Having said that, someone is going to get caught in between and it ain't gonna be pretty!
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 9:04:26 GMT -6
NAM 3km was a decent run. 2 to 4” fgen between 70 and the Missouri River just to the metro. Then it develops 2 to 3” band in the Southern 1/3 of the state. Still has that min zone which is quite possibly gunna screw some folks. NAM 3km: imgur.com/gallery/z4I8A6N |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2022 9:08:42 GMT -6
The HRRR shows a 3hr ish window where snow would fall.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 9:15:10 GMT -6
And the rgem writes off the storm entirely for all of Missouri.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 9:17:24 GMT -6
we will not know whats happening until it is happening
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2022 9:19:42 GMT -6
And the rgem writes off the storm entirely for all of Missouri. As does the Icon. Yikes. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 9:30:47 GMT -6
And the rgem writes off the storm entirely for all of Missouri. As does the Icon. Yikes. Now that is scary! I’m a huge fan of the ICON. Also, many times when the ICON starts a trend the EURO follows suite so I’m not at all expecting a good run of the EURO today seeing this. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 9:31:40 GMT -6
The 06z EPS mean QPF was down to 0.05”
That’s a yikes
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Post by mchafin on Jan 4, 2022 9:46:17 GMT -6
And the rgem writes off the storm entirely for all of Missouri. As does the Icon. Yikes. On tropical tidbits, hours 36-51 are missing, FYI |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 9:51:28 GMT -6
On tropical tidbits, hours 36-51 are missing, FYI I have WXBell and it has all the member. It’s not good at all. Still picks up some very very light flurries and snow showers but accumulations not looking good especially after fighting all the dry air. Have a gander for yourself: imgur.com/gallery/yWHmJEl |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 9:53:31 GMT -6
ICON isn’t a complete miss but definitely not great. Generally less than an inch south of 70
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 9:58:49 GMT -6
Basically zero output IMBY from the NAM but the Fgen response looks pretty decent at h7 and h85...think it might be underselling that a bit.
That being said, the transition of energy that leap frogs STL is too classic.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2022 10:01:26 GMT -6
The models are really struggling with the energy transfer from the first band to the southern development. This is very touch and go still.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 10:03:32 GMT -6
Basically zero output IMBY from the NAM but the Fgen response looks pretty decent at h7 and h85...think it might be underselling that a bit. That being said, the transition of energy that leap frogs STL is too classic. Yep. I think we need to pray that fgen band(s) come to fruition or we’re just looking at some scattered flurries or snow showers. Sure will be fun to watch this blow up east of here. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2022 10:16:47 GMT -6
That band will cover about 10 percent of the area. May as well just not do anything.. as long as the mid Atlantic gets their 2nd big storm in 4 days and the northeast gets theirs it's all good. But hey it might rain this weekend
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 10:29:34 GMT -6
Looks like most of us aren't getting more than a dusting.
The energy is moving to fast on the models for us.
Only the nam is even close. Which means the consensus is a no go..
That's not likely to change.
Hopefully the far Southerner can get something out of it
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 10:30:38 GMT -6
GEM looks like a complete miss
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2022 10:30:53 GMT -6
All I gotta say is that people who forecast winter weather in our part of the country need more respect and the same goes for severe wx all across the US. Hats off to Chris, NWS, etc. bc events like this are truly the some of the hardest to forecast. I would think this would make midwestern forecasters more respected at least among people who live in our part of the nation. Not to leave out what just happened in the DC area. And of course other areas in the US like the mountains, etc. Forecasting with the ocean factors and other variables are hard. I just wish all forecasters got a little more respect instead of "it's the only job where you get paid and your wrong." Is funny because all these professional athletes are respected and idolized in our world. If the general public even understood or cared to understand how complex the atmosphere is every day.
Going back to our system. There's no slam dunk WAA leading precip. This looks to now just be the Mesoscale band(s). Models aren't showing the deformation snows after the Mesoscale band(s) pass through. The deformation snows get going in the OH Valley. Like others have said this morning, people in the broadbush D-2 forecast will end up with nothing. Unfortunately, you can't get too detailed with the map, but just mention that some areas in the D-2 may not even get a dusting lol. I guess there will now be so many comments saying that the forecasters were wrong lol.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 10:31:03 GMT -6
I think most expected nothing more. Wherever that tiny band ends up we will all just drive to see our snow.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2022 10:40:22 GMT -6
Steady as she goes..
My public forecast remains pretty well on track... I see no need to make a course correction of any type at this time. The energy that will become our clipper system has not yet been sampled and until it is I think I've got a pretty conservative and reasonable forecast on the books.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 10:54:59 GMT -6
Still not seeing any real clustering in the SREF plumes.
They are pretty well spaced out between 0.00 and 0.20 QPF
Mean looks to be 0.08 at Lambert
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 4, 2022 10:59:57 GMT -6
I keep thinking of the Kevin Bacon scene at the end of “Animal House” while he is trying to control the crowd.
“Don’t panic! All is well!!!”
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 11:05:36 GMT -6
12z Ukie came in looking better than last nights run.
Still not much, but has a stripe of 0.10” QPF just south of 70 on the Mo side
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2022 11:18:10 GMT -6
I keep thinking of the Kevin Bacon scene at the end of “Animal House” while he is trying to control the crowd. “Don’t panic! All is well!!!” And I keep thinking of "thank you sir may I please have another!!!" every time we miss a storm. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 4, 2022 11:24:38 GMT -6
Zero..point..zero.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 12:33:07 GMT -6
The euro has essentially nothing for most of us.
It's also coming in further South with the initial band.
That is a trend we will probably see on all models if they continue going this direction with the energy evolution
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