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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 4, 2022 12:42:19 GMT -6
I think this thing is toast. No snow for us this week.
Not till after MLK Day.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 12:42:32 GMT -6
The euro has essentially nothing for most of us. It's also coming in further South with the initial band. That is a trend we will probably see on all models if they continue going this direction with the energy evolution Yup. Really similar to the ICON as expected. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 4, 2022 12:44:30 GMT -6
Obviously the pros still have to monitor this of course because of reputation and what not, but for us hobbyist and those without public dependence can just give this one up. On to the next one in about 2 weeks...
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 4, 2022 12:58:51 GMT -6
Looks like Hilton Head Island, SC has more in the snow total column than STL. #sad  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 13:02:21 GMT -6
Nobody mentioned the long range RAP earlier. Has the same nice meso band coming into the area. The Euro/Ukmet/NAM s/HRRR/RAP all have a very similar meso scale bad in a similar area/position. I think we can all agree the bigger development of an actual LP is now probably off the table. The meso band is not a direct hit but does get some of the metro area. This is probably our best shot at snow. As we all know , with these set ups, once saturation occurs it can snow harems and pile up quickly with the better than normal ratios. This may not develop or could miss us to the south west, but as of right now it’s not a done deal. Hopefully we get some good consistency tonight and tomorrow morning on the location of this band. Currently Union looks to be in the best location…
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 13:10:27 GMT -6
That Fgen band still has decent potential to lay down some accumulating snow...but it's slowly shifting S of the Metro. What's really comical is the GFS which splits the band in half around STL and then caves the whole thing SE.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 13:15:39 GMT -6
Long range ensembles are starting to go towards a +PNA/-EPO regime with the vortex descending towards Hudson Bay mid-month. Overall, the pattern looks pretty darn cold with persistent and deep NW flow. Not sure about any storm potential, but you'd think some more clippers would be in the cards with that pattern and there's probably good potential for a full blown arctic outbreak or two deep into the lower 48.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 4, 2022 13:16:26 GMT -6
Does anyone have the link for the NWS snowfall prediction map?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 13:16:47 GMT -6
EPS mean is down to 0.03”
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 4, 2022 13:19:08 GMT -6
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 4, 2022 13:19:46 GMT -6
Nobody mentioned the long range RAP earlier. Has the same nice meso band coming into the area. The Euro/Ukmet/NAM s/HRRR/RAP all have a very similar meso scale bad in a similar area/position. I think we can all agree the bigger development of an actual LP is now probably off the table. The meso band is not a direct hit but does get some of the metro area. This is probably our best shot at snow. As we all know , with these set ups, once saturation occurs it can snow harems and pile up quickly with the better than normal ratios. This may not develop or could miss us to the south west, but as of right now it’s not a done deal. Hopefully we get some good consistency tonight and tomorrow morning on the location of this band. Currently Union looks to be in the best location… Doesn’t that keep sinking further south every run tho? |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 4, 2022 13:23:06 GMT -6
The teleconnections are starting to look a little better moving forward. The only thing that appears to be erratic though is the MJO wobbling around.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 13:27:54 GMT -6
I'd keep an eye on the period around the 12th to the 15th or so for the next winter storm potential. The SOI took a big drop a few days ago which signals S stream energy coming through around that time frame and the EC shows that. The last big drop in early December signaled the last storm very well.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 13:29:54 GMT -6
The teleconnections are starting to look a little better moving forward. The only thing that appears to be erratic though is the MJO wobbling around. Yeah, it seems to be stuck in phase 7 for the time being. Would still like to see that get into the 8/1 quadrant to really sound the horn for winter storms here. But definitely better trends overall with the Pacific teleconnections. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 4, 2022 13:39:18 GMT -6
So.. what your saying is two more weeks huh?🙄
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 13:44:30 GMT -6
I’d definitely buy a “Chris’s Corner: Just two more weeks” shirt
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 13:44:58 GMT -6
I'd keep an eye on the period around the 12th to the 15th or so for the next winter storm potential. The SOI took a big drop a few days ago which signals S stream energy coming through around that time frame and the EC shows that. The last big drop in early December signaled the last storm very well. The GFS has modeled a pretty big winter storm from time to time for awhile now and currently lost it. But I agree, that’s a good period to watch. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 13:54:09 GMT -6
So.. what your saying is two more weeks huh?🙄 8 to 10 is the new two weeks! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2022 13:55:18 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 13:57:53 GMT -6
18z NBM is in and it’s not very pretty  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2022 14:00:49 GMT -6
We are officially at the point where an inch would be considered a win.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 4, 2022 14:04:02 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 14:08:50 GMT -6
That’s an inch or so through out the area, probably spot on . I do think the meso band area will have higher amounts south west if the metro but still in our viewing area. 18z HRRR did shift south a little but still hits most with 1-2” . The RAP and HRRR have snow starting right around or after midnight tomorrow night. Hopefully the NAM suite of models will keep the meso band hope alive.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 14:10:46 GMT -6
I agree with STG , one inch of powder that we know will actually stick would be better than nothing. Since there’s not a single winter storm modeled the next 14 days unfortunately
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:18:55 GMT -6
I like the one inch Idea, and nam looks better to me
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2022 14:20:57 GMT -6
Hmm...is the nam about to start a new trend or is it being a rooster-tease again?
Either way, I've screenshotted the 18z Nam's snowfall output map, to put it in the encyclopedia as the prototypical STL Split.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:21:44 GMT -6
It definately gets the area a nice 1 to 3 on the nam, and really starts coming togeter for se mo with the main storm.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 4, 2022 14:26:19 GMT -6
Well at least things are looking up for Washington D.C. I mean they're only looking at a 2-6" type of event, but beggars can't be choosers. I'm sure they'll take what they can get at this point.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:28:51 GMT -6
I will give dc one thing they have not had much snow at all in years. At least we get snow. An even the hi res nam is 1 to 2 from Metro west and south so its not a total write off for anyone just yet
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2022 15:13:26 GMT -6
Suddenly the Nam, Icon, and RGEM all look good again for the southerners.
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