gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 6, 2022 20:46:11 GMT -6
The 00z NAM starts the freezing rain/drizzle with temps near 20* Saturday morning The FRAM chart is spitting out some respectable ice amounts in the northern counties into central IL with amounts near 2/10" What does it show from St. Louis west to Jefferson City as far as ice goes? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 6, 2022 20:51:25 GMT -6
Yes even .05” -.08” through most of the area is actually a decent amount of freezing drizzle. Both the NAM an 3K NAM have freezing drizzle from around 6am-2pm . Things probably get really dicey during the morning on untreated surfaces. Many times, warm advection precipitation can start earlier than modeling shows by a few hours.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 6, 2022 20:52:48 GMT -6
It has freezing drizzle basically the whole way from St. Louis to Jefferson City. It should develop in south west Missouri and March right up I 44
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2022 20:54:05 GMT -6
The 00z NAM starts the freezing rain/drizzle with temps near 20* Saturday morning The FRAM chart is spitting out some respectable ice amounts in the northern counties into central IL with amounts near 2/10" What does it show from St. Louis west to Jefferson City as far as ice goes? Amount wise less than a 1/10” But anytime you get freezing drizzle with temps in the 20s it can get real dicey real quick. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 6, 2022 21:30:08 GMT -6
Last night's event(NON-EVENT) just really pisses me the BLEEP off!!!!
FOR ONE REASON...
We had radar returns running West to East over us. Like literally directly through the heart of the metro for 8-10 hours.
Not counting the last 2-3 hours when everything sagged South as we finally saturated some.
No we had a mesoband sitting over us for that long and we got NOTHING
NOTHING
NOTHING
NOTHING
BELIEVE IT...it won't be long before butt bleeping Iowa, NWMO, Central Illinois, you name it anywhere but here...
Will get a mesoband while it's -15F and pick up 6-10" of fluff.
Yet we get 10 hours of virga.
There were times when the returns were a solid 20-25dbz on composite for an hour+. And not a flake.
End rant
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 6, 2022 21:40:33 GMT -6
Just drive through Memphis instead...bring a gun. I gotta nickname for all my gunz a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun a two shot that I call Tupac and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne machine gun named Missy so loud it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2022 6:20:19 GMT -6
That made my day, Friv...better than a cup of coffee
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 7, 2022 8:39:58 GMT -6
None of the local mets are talking about it. Is there still freezing drizzle on the table for tomorrow? Knowing how high impact only a little could be, it just seems odd that nobody has even mentioned the possibility.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 8:42:31 GMT -6
Yes Nam is as ICY as ever along and north of 70, have no Idea why it is being downplayed soo much.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 8:52:32 GMT -6
Yes , it is surprising on the radio this morning and local news not much mentioned. The NWS has no mention in the forecast, only afternoon rain and 42. Maybe they see something I don’t see. The GFS is dry and warm so maybe there going off that.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 7, 2022 9:04:52 GMT -6
Yes , it is surprising on the radio this morning and local news not much mentioned. The NWS has no mention in the forecast, only afternoon rain and 42. Maybe they see something I don’t see. The GFS is dry and warm so maybe there going off that. They did put something on Facebook this morning talking about the possibility of it, but I've yet to see it show up in any forecast. I'm driving west on 50 tomorrow and once you get past Rosebud, it starts to get fairly windy. I don't mind driving in the snow at all, but I hate ice. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 7, 2022 9:11:59 GMT -6
5* this morning in Northern Wildwood w/ some stratus. WCs last night and this morning were below zero.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 9:13:54 GMT -6
Yeah its bitter, and I had to call the city have quite a water leak gushing from the ground.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2022 9:20:52 GMT -6
This event is being majorly downplayed, IMO...there's not enough recognition of the frozen ground and it's potential to prolong icing well after the air temp rises above freezing. These inexperienced mets see the models printing out rain with the temp rising above freezing and assume it's no big deal.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 9:32:12 GMT -6
Yes Brtn, my thoughts indeed. Snow and ice removal crews should be at least planning for salting sometime tomorrow morning. This set up has some similarities to the event in 2016 I believe the December light freezing drizzle that moved in around lunch . We we’re coming off a big cold snap as well, and the precipitation was not modeled well or forecasted. Temps we’re supposed to rise rapidly and just rain . We had freezing drizzle for 8 hours .
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 9:33:41 GMT -6
The other thing I always watch is the dew points and where they start out at, with very light precipitation falling it will usually keep the temperature from rising too fast.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2022 9:36:53 GMT -6
This event is being majorly downplayed, IMO...there's not enough recognition of the frozen ground and it's potential to prolong icing well after the air temp rises above freezing. These inexperienced mets see the models printing out rain with the temp rising above freezing and assume it's no big deal. Ya this seems like an almost perfect fzdr setup. It won’t take much QPF at all to cause some problems. NAM has been consistently showing a period of freezing rain/drizzle tomorrow morning with temps near 20° My NWS point forecast says nothing about freezing drizzle |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2022 9:42:53 GMT -6
15z tomorrow morning in the metro  |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 7, 2022 9:44:23 GMT -6
Warren, Franklin, and Callaway counties zone forecast all mention freezing drizzle from 8-11am
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 9:45:30 GMT -6
St Charles and St. Louis counties say nothing…
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 7, 2022 9:47:35 GMT -6
Seem to be some differences between global models and regional models with the setup Sat morning. Globals never really get the lowest part of the atmosphere saturated...some large dewpoint depressions even. But regional models nearly fully saturated with temps in the low 20s...certainly a freezing mist/drizzle look to the soundings.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 7, 2022 9:48:11 GMT -6
15z tomorrow morning in the metro I’m a novice and don’t totally know how to read these charts. What is this showing. Sorry. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2022 9:51:52 GMT -6
St Charles and St. Louis counties say nothing… To be fair, the nam is the most bullish model and it concentrates the majority of the action in a band stretching from northwest to northeast of STL. A line from Troy to Central Illinois would take the brunt of it. Probably worth giving yourself a buffer as a forecaster, but the worst impacts should be away from the city itself. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 7, 2022 9:52:29 GMT -6
It shows saturated lift occuring over the top of a surface temp of 24 degrees! I have some signficant concerns about freezing drizzle tomorrow morning. The biggest concern isn't for main roads. There is more salt on those things than we could need for the next month. However, neighborhood roads, driveways, sidewalks, stairs, decks, etc. that have not been treated will be a big deal with significant potential for slip and fall injuries tomorrow morning!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 9:53:47 GMT -6
Yes and air temps dont matter much until the surface is above freezing which is usually a very slow process after a cold snap like this
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 9:56:26 GMT -6
This could be one of those setups where the mist/drizzle is so fine only composite type radars will pick it up. I due agree with Chris, there is a ton of salt brine/residue on most roads and parking lots which will help a ton. Driveways/sidewalks/untreated roads and lots will likely be very slick .
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 10:00:00 GMT -6
Yes I am aware the NAM is the most bullish on qpf north and west of the city. I guess we will see how it turns out. I bet it’s not raining and 42 per the GFS.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 7, 2022 10:03:04 GMT -6
It was added to the mobile.weather.gov
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 7, 2022 10:03:39 GMT -6
St Charles and St. Louis counties say nothing… To be fair, the nam is the most bullish model and it concentrates the majority of the action in a band stretching from northwest to northeast of STL. A line from Troy to Central Illinois would take the brunt of it. Probably worth giving yourself a buffer as a forecaster, but the worst impacts should be away from the city itself. Soundings aloft show similar pattern though and we all know the GFS struggles with cold air at the surface. The NAM has done a respectable job with the cold air lately and the fact that the HRW FV3 and other mesoscale models are similar to the NAM leads me to believe it would be wise to pay close attention to what they have to say. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 7, 2022 10:09:15 GMT -6
My lots have quite a bit of chemical on it from yesterday yet but sidewalks have nothing since the backpack blower blew the snow off them yesterday and it was dry underneath. May go and thro some calcium on them tonight so I can sit at home while this unfolds.
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