|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2022 10:10:23 GMT -6
i work 3-11 tonight and tomorrow, Should I stay at work tonight so I make it tomorrow or will it be fine by 2 pm?  |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 7, 2022 10:10:53 GMT -6
15z tomorrow morning in the metro  I’m a novice and don’t totally know how to read these charts. What is this showing. Sorry. The red line is the vertical temp profile and the green line is the dewpoint. The dashed white lines are slanted temperate references lines in Celcius. When green and red lines are close together the atmosphere is saturated in that layer and droplets or ice crystals can form. Notice that the lines widely diverge above the second horizontal white line labeled 850mb (about 1500m above surface) so no droplets/crystals can form above that. Ice crystals typically form best in the layer of atmosphere between about -10C to -20C...but that won't happen here. Where the lines are touching (saturation) it's above freezing so only droplets will form (really as long as it was above -10C where saturated you'd still get mainly droplets because remember 0C is technically the melting point not necessarily the freezing point). Since the near surface layer and roads are very cold and saturated there would be no evaporation of droplets and they will freeze on contact efficiently. |
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 7, 2022 10:11:22 GMT -6
It shows saturated lift occuring over the top of a surface temp of 24 degrees! I have some signficant concerns about freezing drizzle tomorrow morning. The biggest concern isn't for main roads. There is more salt on those things than we could need for the next month. However, neighborhood roads, driveways, sidewalks, stairs, decks, etc. that have not been treated will be a big deal with significant potential for slip and fall injuries tomorrow morning! Thank you. We’re leaving WashMO around 5am for a swim meet in Jefferson City. Trying to decide if it’s worth the trip. |
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 7, 2022 10:12:13 GMT -6
I’m a novice and don’t totally know how to read these charts. What is this showing. Sorry. The red line is the vertical temp profile and the green line is the dewpoint. The dashed white lines are slanted temperate references lines in Celcius. When green and red lines are close together the atmosphere is saturated in that layer and droplets or ice crystals can form. Notice that the lines widely diverge above the second horizontal white line labeled 850mb (about 1500m above surface) so no droplets/crystals can form above that. Ice crystals typically form best in the layer of atmosphere between about -10C to -20C...but that won't happen here. Where the lines are touching (saturation) it's above freezing so only droplets will form (really as long as it was above -10C where saturated you'd still get mainly droplets). Since the near surface layer and roads are very cold and saturated there would be no evaporation of droplets and they will freeze on contact efficiently. Thanks! I need to screen shot this so I can use it again in the future to read these. |
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
|
Post by mccarthb on Jan 7, 2022 10:17:47 GMT -6
To be fair, the nam is the most bullish model and it concentrates the majority of the action in a band stretching from northwest to northeast of STL. A line from Troy to Central Illinois would take the brunt of it. Probably worth giving yourself a buffer as a forecaster, but the worst impacts should be away from the city itself. Soundings aloft show similar pattern though and we all know the GFS struggles with cold air at the surface. The NAM has done a respectable job with the cold air lately and the fact that the HRW FV3 and other mesoscale models are similar to the NAM leads me to believe it would be wise to pay close attention to what they have to say. Why Chris? What gets posted on this forum stays on this forum! It’s a pact we all have! |
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
|
Post by mccarthb on Jan 7, 2022 10:20:28 GMT -6
Soundings aloft show similar pattern though and we all know the GFS struggles with cold air at the surface. The NAM has done a respectable job with the cold air lately and the fact that the HRW FV3 and other mesoscale models are similar to the NAM leads me to believe it would be wise to pay close attention to what they have to say. Why Chris? What gets posted on this forum stays on this forum! It’s a pact we all have! Disregard, read your post too fast and thought you said “I have to pay close attention to what I have to say”. Which I know is also true for you unfortunately. |
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
|
Post by mccarthb on Jan 7, 2022 10:21:50 GMT -6
Why Chris? What gets posted on this forum stays on this forum! It’s a pact we all have! Disregard, read your post too fast and thought you said “I have to pay close attention to what I have to say”. Which I know is also true for you unfortunately. And one last thing.. This is epic!  |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 10:31:42 GMT -6
Snowman- you should just call in now and take the day off! 😀
|
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 7, 2022 10:49:50 GMT -6
Disregard, read your post too fast and thought you said “I have to pay close attention to what I have to say”. Which I know is also true for you unfortunately. And one last thing.. This is epic! “I will NOT shave until we get a significant snow!!!” |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 7, 2022 11:20:43 GMT -6
It shows saturated lift occuring over the top of a surface temp of 24 degrees! I have some signficant concerns about freezing drizzle tomorrow morning. The biggest concern isn't for main roads. There is more salt on those things than we could need for the next month. However, neighborhood roads, driveways, sidewalks, stairs, decks, etc. that have not been treated will be a big deal with significant potential for slip and fall injuries tomorrow morning! Thank you. We’re leaving WashMO around 5am for a swim meet in Jefferson City. Trying to decide if it’s worth the trip. Main roads will be fine if they still have a ton of salt on them. Most dangerous part will be the trip feom the house to the car and back. |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 11:35:58 GMT -6
Funky weather pattern end of the week and next weekend, i could actually see a very wet sloppy snow potential the end of the week
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2022 12:07:19 GMT -6
Funky weather pattern end of the week and next weekend, i could actually see a very wet sloppy snow potential the end of the week Last night’s euro showed the extreme potential from that setup heading into MLK weekend. Cold air is not far away, so just need the right phase/timing. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 7, 2022 12:09:01 GMT -6
And one last thing.. This is epic! "This beard stays until we get that blizzard they promised us back in 2011!" |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 12:57:30 GMT -6
Boy the gfs freezes at the end of its run right before it pushes a blob of snow into st.louis.
Almost like hold up, wait a minute, this aint right, I must resist giving the STL snow
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 12:59:57 GMT -6
Also of note we have a dp of -3 at the airport its going to take a ton to get us above freezing with wetbulbing tomorrow
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2022 13:06:58 GMT -6
Definitely some hints of a potential SSW event developing towards mid-month...the GFS is more bullish than the EC with the burst of westerlies elongating/weakening the vortex and pushing it off the pole. Currently the strat vortex is very strong, so it would take a significant warming event to disrupt it. Something to keep an eye on.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 13:14:22 GMT -6
Based on the polar vortex, isn't it a good thing in a way that it os locked up at the pole to really help re establish the artic sea ice. I know we like when it gets dislodged, but technically when it is very strong like it is this year isnt that good for building the Ice nice and thick in the artic.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2022 13:24:32 GMT -6
Definitely some hints of a potential SSW event developing towards mid-month...the GFS is more bullish than the EC with the burst of westerlies elongating/weakening the vortex and pushing it off the pole. Currently the strat vortex is very strong, so it would take a significant warming event to disrupt it. Something to keep an eye on. Dr. Cohen has been talking about a stretched PV as opposed to any split during that time period. His machine learning model has looked good for that time period as well which is interesting. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2022 13:45:10 GMT -6
18z HRRRrrrrr looks similar to other short range guidance with a classic fzdr sounding tomorrow morning with temps in the low 20s and DPs in the teens  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2022 13:56:51 GMT -6
Definitely some hints of a potential SSW event developing towards mid-month...the GFS is more bullish than the EC with the burst of westerlies elongating/weakening the vortex and pushing it off the pole. Currently the strat vortex is very strong, so it would take a significant warming event to disrupt it. Something to keep an eye on. Dr. Cohen has been talking about a stretched PV as opposed to any split during that time period. His machine learning model has looked good for that time period as well which is interesting. I don't have time to read his blog ATM...does he mention the anomalous ridge near AK at all? He's talked about it before, how it causes vertical wave flux into the stratosphere that can weaken the vortex. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 14:25:39 GMT -6
Snowstorm what time are you/models thinking freezing drizzle could develop in the metro area?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2022 14:38:37 GMT -6
Snowstorm what time are you/models thinking freezing drizzle could develop in the metro area? 9am to noon looks like the best chance for the metro
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 7, 2022 14:46:04 GMT -6
And one last thing.. This is epic! “I will NOT shave until we get a significant snow!!!” There's this ZZ Top tribute band....
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2022 15:03:58 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen has been talking about a stretched PV as opposed to any split during that time period. His machine learning model has looked good for that time period as well which is interesting. I don't have time to read his blog ATM...does he mention the anomalous ridge near AK at all? He's talked about it before, how it causes vertical wave flux into the stratosphere that can weaken the vortex. Ural ridging/East Asia troughing pattern next week is what he tied to a potential stretched PV (this is from Wednesday so things may have changed). He also noted the gfs ensembles were hinting at a more significant disruption but he wasn’t buying it. |
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
|
Post by mccarthb on Jan 7, 2022 15:05:48 GMT -6
“I will NOT shave until we get a significant snow!!!” There's this ZZ Top tribute band....
Lol. I immediately thought of Zac Brown but that’s a good one too! |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 16:23:44 GMT -6
Also remember warm air advection precip usually starts faster than modeled
|
|
|
|
Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Jan 7, 2022 17:55:15 GMT -6
WWA FOR STL COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS
2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and west central
Illinois, and portions of central, east central, and northeast
Missouri.
* WHEN...From 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Difficult travel conditions are
possible.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 17:55:50 GMT -6
Wwa issued
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2022 17:58:13 GMT -6
I. Canceling all plans tomorrow. Not going to be messing with this one
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2022 18:13:45 GMT -6
Pretty crazy that Iowa absolutely shattered the state record for tornadoes in a single day…in December
Minnesota is up to 21 tornadoes from that day and they never recorded a tornado in the month of December before
|
|
