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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 7, 2022 18:19:26 GMT -6
I wonder if the snow cover to our south could help hold temps down tomorrow….. it’s not that often we have that much snow to our south
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 7, 2022 18:29:18 GMT -6
Well pretreatment start tonight at 11:00pm
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 18:31:28 GMT -6
No , probably not much effect it’s, the 1” of snow is a very narrow band and not deep . Normally when you see snow cover affecting WAA it’s a large area and you need several inches. The low dew points and precipitation rates will be the biggest factor in temp rise. Lighter precipitation rates will typically prolong temp rise during WAA events
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Post by amstilost on Jan 7, 2022 18:38:55 GMT -6
I had all those symptoms plus a small rash and it was in fact Covid. Lasted 3 days and gone but overall very uncomfortable but tolerable during it all. Had COVID, along with my wife and daughter right after Thanksgiving. It hit my wife and daughter hard early with cough, fever and eventually loss of taste/smell. However, they were fine at about day 10 to 12 or so from start of symptoms. On the other hand, it was sneaky with me. Didn't have any significant symptoms until Day 6-7 after a little cough and achiness showed up. It then went south to pneumonia in the next 3 days after that. Was treated at home with steroids and antibiotic and it turned around in 48 hours. Walgreens does the Abbott ID Now tests (have to schedule online), but knowing is important. If you are feeling any heaviness in your chest, particularly after a week or so, talk to your doctor. There are lots of treatment approaches beyond the controversial stuff. Bingo....my symptoms came back Wednesday and took the home test today. I kept thinking of your post. We both have Covid. Symptoms still 'relatively' mild...and getting better. no loss of taste or smell....yet. And of course finding out at 4pm on a Friday doesn't help as far as our Dr. goes. No heaviness in chest but we will keep an eye out. Thanks. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 7, 2022 18:42:42 GMT -6
Kind of strange the 18z run of GFS is only out to Hr276
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2022 19:03:46 GMT -6
Kind of strange the 18z run of GFS is only out to Hr276 Tropical Tidbits has it, so probably a limited issue related to Pivotal. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 7, 2022 19:23:44 GMT -6
No , probably not much effect it’s, the 1” of snow is a very narrow band and not deep . Normally when you see snow cover affecting WAA it’s a large area and you need several inches. The low dew points and precipitation rates will be the biggest factor in temp rise. Lighter precipitation rates will typically prolong temp rise during WAA events If you go further south there are several inches on the ground in Kentucky and Tenn |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 7, 2022 19:25:05 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 19:26:24 GMT -6
That’s way to Far East to effect our temps, all our warm air will becoming from the southwest
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Post by amstilost on Jan 7, 2022 19:31:24 GMT -6
No , probably not much effect it’s, the 1” of snow is a very narrow band and not deep . Normally when you see snow cover affecting WAA it’s a large area and you need several inches. The low dew points and precipitation rates will be the biggest factor in temp rise. Lighter precipitation rates will typically prolong temp rise during WAA events If you go further south there are several inches on the ground in Kentucky and Tenn Thanks |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 7, 2022 19:32:10 GMT -6
Kind of strange the 18z run of GFS is only out to Hr276 Tropical Tidbits has it, so probably a limited issue related to Pivotal. Thanks.... Edit: Was off just a hair when hitting the 'Quote' button. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 20:00:58 GMT -6
NAM is coming in pretty icy for sure . Not sure on soundings but looks like there could be a slight chance of it starting as a brief period of light sleet at the onset
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2022 20:16:44 GMT -6
NAM is coming in pretty icy for sure . Not sure on soundings but looks like there could be a slight chance of it starting as a brief period of light sleet at the onset Definitely could be a period of ice pellets before the warm wedge really gets cranking. Looks like the 00z NAM and 3k NAM are starting the precipitation while temps are still in the upper teens tomorrow |
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Post by scmhack on Jan 7, 2022 20:18:32 GMT -6
of course onset will be when I get off work and have to drive home...
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 20:28:30 GMT -6
Yes temps upper teens and dew points 9-10 degrees at onset is pretty cold. It’s going to take a long time to get frozen pavement temps above freezing. I bet there’s a freezing drizzle threat until around 1-3pm tomorrow. It looks like start time could be 7-9 am on the models. And yes, Sometimes WAA precipitation can start as little earlier than modeling shows
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2022 20:30:25 GMT -6
hopefully I can make it to work at 3 tomorrow. Lots of hills to get up out of the subdivision. I really don't wanna stay here, lol.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 20:47:38 GMT -6
It looks like the NAM/NAM 3K/HRRR have air temps and dew points rising above freezing around around 3pm in the metro, sooner southwest and later north east.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 7, 2022 21:08:31 GMT -6
Models trending colder and longer a bit each run hour of the HRRR/RAP. Might be a bigger deal then expected. Some models don't clear the metro-east from freezing temps until 3-4PM, but only show largely light amounts in the meantime. Bringing heavy precipitation after temps rise above freezing, and even then mainly southeast of St. Louis.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 7, 2022 21:21:40 GMT -6
The fact that these rain droplets are going to be smaller than 5 mm that would mean better ice accretion and they will already be cool before reaching the surface. The deep shallow layer of cold looks to be about 100mb deep once saturation occurs! Grounds temps extremely cold as as we've been saying should all lead to better ice accumulations on elevated surfaces, side streets. I know many major roads have a lot of chemicals on them, but you'd imagine that there will be some ice on the roads when/after precip breaks out with temps in the 18-21 range. A 5-10 min period of sleet before the freezing drizzle will help on ice accretion even better!
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 7, 2022 21:22:04 GMT -6
I think by early afternoon- warm droplets will help get temps to freezing pretty quick. Should be pretty icy in the morning though.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 21:24:50 GMT -6
Yes they sure are, .05”-.08” of freezing drizzle is actually quite a bit on pavement, not a big deal on trees but it’s crazy how much chemicals and salt it takes to melt freezing drizzle when the temps are cold and the ground is frozen solid
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2022 21:26:54 GMT -6
Nolan your correct, the residual salt will definitely help at the onset but will get diluted fairly quickly.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2022 21:52:15 GMT -6
00z Icon shows some potential going into next weekend.
You can really see that northern vorticity dive down and meet the southern vort, but the southern vort is a bit strung out by then.
Lots of potential there though and some ensemble runs have spun up a major storm (as did last night’s euro).
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2022 0:04:01 GMT -6
Euro has a tenth of an inch of ice in the metro through noon tomorrow using the FRAM chart.
An interesting thing I’ve noticed with this system is the FRAM charts are showing more ice accretion than the straight up QPF to ice charts
I’ve read about that being possible but can’t remember seeing it happen around here before
I guess it goes to show how prime accretion conditions will be in the morning
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2022 0:14:56 GMT -6
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2022 4:29:41 GMT -6
I have went from 16° at around midnight up to 20° at 4:30am......hoping that trend stays steady progress.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2022 5:19:54 GMT -6
Friend reporting very fine drizzle/mist in washington MO
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 8, 2022 5:34:24 GMT -6
Is that stuff reaching the ground showing up on radar?
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2022 5:43:15 GMT -6
Very fine mist/drizzle just north of Marthasville now 22°
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2022 5:56:01 GMT -6
Is that stuff reaching the ground showing up on radar? Are you referring to the little batch just know crossing the river at Warren and Franklin county? If so then yea it’s drizzle making it to the ground. |
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