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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2022 14:05:28 GMT -6
12z euro dropping a ton of snow in Central Illinois Friday into Saturday . STL just needs a small move southwest to be in it. Define Central IL? For you Chicagoans, that’s anything south of I-80 and north of 64. There are limited population centers in Illinois south of Chicago (jk)… I guess I would say between Springfield and Peoria would constitute Central Illinois from a latitude perspective (I realize it’s a bigger boundary than this, but those are the major cities I think of). More specifically, the euro is favoring west Central Illinois. Springfield would require a minimal shift south to be in great shape. Let’s see what the ensembles say in a half hour. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2022 14:15:36 GMT -6
Things look mildly interesting towards next weekend and into the following week. There's enough cold air lurking and energy coming through the S stream to make things potentially active. But the EURO looks straight up funky and the GFS pretty blah, so I don't have much confidence in anything yet. It definitely looks colder after a fairly brief moderation this week. I'm not sure we're going to get to 50 though...depends on the timing of the clippers passing to the NE.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2022 14:18:21 GMT -6
Define Central IL? For you Chicagoans, that’s anything south of I-80 and north of 64. There are limited population centers in Illinois south of Chicago (jk)… I guess I would say between Springfield and Peoria would constitute Central Illinois from a latitude perspective (I realize it’s a bigger boundary than this, but those are the major cities I think of). More specifically, the euro is favoring west Central Illinois. Springfield would require a minimal shift south to be in great shape. Let’s see what the ensembles say in a half hour.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2022 14:21:39 GMT -6
There are limited population centers in Illinois south of Chicago (jk)… I guess I would say between Springfield and Peoria would constitute Central Illinois from a latitude perspective (I realize it’s a bigger boundary than this, but those are the major cities I think of). More specifically, the euro is favoring west Central Illinois. Springfield would require a minimal shift south to be in great shape. Let’s see what the ensembles say in a half hour. Thanks for sharing, hopefully there are some better individual members, but this makes the operational run look like an outlier. Still intrigued given the ukmet run. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2022 14:30:03 GMT -6
There is a decent amount of beefy runs but they are all over the place.
The GEFS looks to be quite a bit further north with any snow, focusing mainly across the northern Great Lakes
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2022 14:41:06 GMT -6
There is a decent amount of beefy runs but they are all over the place. The GEFS looks to be quite a bit further north with any snow, focusing mainly across the northern Great Lakes Yeah, no clear consensus from the euro ensembles, but plenty that give the metro a decent snow. I’ll take it at this range. Would love to finally get birthday snow on Friday, but also trying to fly out of ORD at 6am Saturday, so I’m conflicted 😂 |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2022 16:06:42 GMT -6
Probably a northern Illinois storm, there’s definitely a lot of Twitter chatter today on all the weather people I follow, lots of PV talk, apparently the Euro Ensemble has a very cold look starting at the end of next week. Models show a - PNA and - EPO developing in a week or so, not sure what that does for our weather. Hopefully we get one of this 2-3 week stretch’s of winter that makes up for a brutal one so far.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2022 16:32:12 GMT -6
Of we can get through January with no snow then we are well on our way to having a snowless winter. However remember March brings our biggest snows
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2022 16:58:39 GMT -6
Also we need one big soaking rain, our stream flows are so low and ponds are so low we need them replenished. If we cant get snow lets get some big soaking rains at least. The next 3 weeks look fairly dry overall.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2022 18:04:36 GMT -6
I have a feeling that when the cold air comes mid month or so , that time here will be cold and dry unless we can get a clipper. Most action will be to the east, Then, when the cold air starts to retreat, we could get storm. So maybe a month from now lol.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 9, 2022 18:05:59 GMT -6
I thought something was supposed to be cooking up around MLK day? Did that disappear?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2022 18:11:50 GMT -6
I thought something was supposed to be cooking up around MLK day? Did that disappear? Models are hinting at a potentially active pattern around then. Whether or not that holds up remains to be seen! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2022 18:12:24 GMT -6
I thought something was supposed to be cooking up around MLK day? Did that disappear? That’s the storm I’m talking about above. It’s more Friday night/Saturday instead of MLK. Models are all over the place, so just the next time period of interest, nothing worth getting invested in at this time. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 9, 2022 19:09:12 GMT -6
Also we need one big soaking rain, our stream flows are so low and ponds are so low we need them replenished. If we cant get snow lets get some big soaking rains at least. The next 3 weeks look fairly dry overall. You do realize that snow would moisten the soils much better than rain......right? |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2022 19:32:34 GMT -6
Also we need one big soaking rain, our stream flows are so low and ponds are so low we need them replenished. If we cant get snow lets get some big soaking rains at least. The next 3 weeks look fairly dry overall. You do realize that snow would moisten the soils much better than rain......right? Yeah - no need for soaking rains. My yard is squishy enough and I just had to drain water out of my pool - trampoline cover let’s rain / melted snow come through. Don’t need any more soaking rains this winter. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2022 20:49:01 GMT -6
I suppose. Its just i feel like snow melt does not fill the ponds as efficiently as a deluge would.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2022 22:15:16 GMT -6
00z gfs clearly caving towards the euro/ukmet solution for Friday/Saturday.
Need another bump southwest to get any of the metro involved in the fun.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 9, 2022 22:15:58 GMT -6
I suppose. Its just i feel like snow melt does not fill the ponds as efficiently as a deluge would. Because it soaks into the groud instead of running off!!!!! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2022 22:36:11 GMT -6
You do realize that snow would moisten the soils much better than rain......right? Yeah - no need for soaking rains. My yard is squishy enough and I just had to drain water out of my pool - trampoline cover let’s rain / melted snow come through. Don’t need any more soaking rains this winter. I think Snowman would love some mud in his yard, jk haha. I just remember him mentioning muddy paws with his dog(s) haha! I agree, snow melt is better for a ground to gradually soak up the moisture instead of run off rain! A frozen/semi frozen ground with heavy rain on top isn't good as we all know. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2022 22:57:41 GMT -6
Shockingly strong agreement between the gfs, ggem, and ukmet tonight.
Northern stream energy is dominant and favors Iowa into Northern Illinois.
Gfs ensembles are pretty scattered still.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2022 23:11:58 GMT -6
I mean. Duh. Lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2022 0:37:03 GMT -6
I can’t remember seeing a system move almost due north to south like the euro has Friday into Saturday
Nonetheless, it drops quite a bit of snow across the area
Not sure what to make of that potential system yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2022 6:29:39 GMT -6
I can’t remember seeing a system move almost due north to south like the euro has Friday into Saturday Nonetheless, it drops quite a bit of snow across the area Not sure what to make of that potential system yet. Kind of another hybrid clipper type system. Models are trending towards a more amplified trof that digs a bit further SW which is good for us. But I can't help but think that may scour out the low-level cold air at the surface until the wave passes through. It's a weird setup for sure. Probably a nice moderate snow event to our north and a messy mix around here if I had to guess. But maybe models will trend a bit colder...I think forecasts are too generous with the warm up this week. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2022 8:21:52 GMT -6
Last nights EPS looks pretty good for the region, especially the N half...the GEFS not as bullish but still a signal for some wintry weather Friday into Saturday. Looks like we have another system of potential disappointment to track, lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2022 8:47:52 GMT -6
Quite a few good looking ensemble members from the 6z euro for the metro.
Starting to get more interesting
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2022 8:53:09 GMT -6
Hey, John Dee has us dangerously close to a really nice storm. First time this season.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2022 9:40:28 GMT -6
It’s such a weird set up for a good storm here.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2022 9:42:58 GMT -6
12z Icon looks great for metro STL
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2022 9:58:15 GMT -6
It’s such a weird set up for a good storm here. This system reminds me a bit of those wound up clippers in 2010. But definitely an atypical setup for snow here. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2022 10:00:24 GMT -6
06z GEFS says this is still very much an upper Midwest/Great Lakes storm
I guess let’s see what the 12z run says
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