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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2022 22:27:47 GMT -6
That’s some low ratio stuff on the GFS
Using Weathernerds in house ratios .30” of liquid only results in about 2” of snow
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 10, 2022 22:30:03 GMT -6
That’s some low ratio stuff on the GFS Using Weathernerds in house ratios .30” of liquid only results in about 2” of snow You are not kidding….. I said it looked amazing when I saw the heavy snow but was shocked when I saw the accumulation map |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2022 22:32:08 GMT -6
00z gfs ensembles are all over the place.
Throw a dart with that model
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2022 22:32:19 GMT -6
It would not surprise me one bit
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2022 22:37:17 GMT -6
GEFS has definitely trended west today, when you go back and look at the QPF placement over the last 12-24 hours, big jump southwest
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2022 22:38:34 GMT -6
Gonna end up driving into the TX and blowing up into a nice southern storm and give us 6-12.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2022 22:39:50 GMT -6
GEFS has definitely trended west today, when you go back and look at the QPF placement over the last 12-24 hours, big jump southwest That’s great, but the distribution is not clustered at all. There are 3 separate camps among the individual members suggesting low confidence. Would expect more clustering as we get closer, not less. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2022 22:41:35 GMT -6
Oh I agree, I definitely have very low confidence on this set up for us
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2022 22:42:58 GMT -6
Gonna end up driving into the TX and blowing up into a nice southern storm and give us 6-12. Gotta love how the GFS has this thing dying on our doorstep only to blow up into a monster for the SE and East coast |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2022 22:44:23 GMT -6
Gonna end up driving into the TX and blowing up into a nice southern storm and give us 6-12. Gotta love how the GFS has this thing dying on our doorstep only to blow up into a monster for the SE and East coast Maybe if Missouri makes the Ozarks bigger, storms will want to blowup in the region. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2022 22:44:58 GMT -6
Gonna end up driving into the TX and blowing up into a nice southern storm and give us 6-12. Gotta love how the GFS has this thing dying on our doorstep only to blow up into a monster for the SE and East coast Yeah I saw that too. It goes full bonkers into a wound up massive cyclone to our ESE haha! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2022 22:45:50 GMT -6
00z ukmet is in the western camp.
Time to take it seriously
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2022 22:46:49 GMT -6
Ukmet still looks good
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 10, 2022 23:03:38 GMT -6
Gotta love how the GFS has this thing dying on our doorstep only to blow up into a monster for the SE and East coast Maybe if Missouri makes the Ozarks bigger, storms will want to blowup in the region. I'll take a big warm lake nearby....or ocean, whatever, I'm not picky. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2022 23:10:18 GMT -6
00z GFS and 00z NAM 12km look pretty similar at 84 hrs. Maybe a hair more north on 00z NAM 12km vs. 00z GFS with the surface low.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2022 23:11:11 GMT -6
Maybe if Missouri makes the Ozarks bigger, storms will want to blowup in the region. I'll take a big warm lake nearby....or ocean, whatever, I'm not picky. I say we just greatly expand the lake of the ozarks and turn STL from snow hole to snow meca |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 10, 2022 23:13:11 GMT -6
UKMET would be really weird. 850mb low is damn near moving due south through Missouri. Doubt if you could find a reasonable analog in the reanalysis for that.
We've gotten some decent snow from these overachieving weirdos in the last several years though.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 10, 2022 23:26:08 GMT -6
GFS seems to be generating a sort-of TROWAL in southeast MO as the system pivots off to the east. You can see this on the 500mb theta-e charts as the higher theta-e air begins to wrap around the north side. Not much to show for it snow-wise down there as temps are a bit warm with awful ratios, but interesting anyway.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2022 23:27:05 GMT -6
UKMET would be really weird. 850mb low is damn near moving due south through Missouri. Doubt if you could find a reasonable analog in the reanalysis for that. We've gotten some decent snow from these overachieving weirdos in the last several years though. I remember years ago a system traveling up the spine of MO then spinning in Iowa for days. Modeled, several here were like “no way that’s gonna happen”. It did. Maybe this is our shot for some boneheaded storm to do something stupid that leads to a decent snow. Or not. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 10, 2022 23:33:19 GMT -6
UKMET would be really weird. 850mb low is damn near moving due south through Missouri. Doubt if you could find a reasonable analog in the reanalysis for that. We've gotten some decent snow from these overachieving weirdos in the last several years though. I remember years ago a system traveling up the spine of MO then spinning in Iowa for days. Modeled, several here were like “no way that’s gonna happen”. It did. Maybe this is our shot for some boneheaded storm to do something stupid that leads to a decent snow. Or not. How about November 2018. Storm comes out the Gulf and moves basically due north giving us several inches. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2022 23:45:42 GMT -6
Surprised nobody mentioned our Canadian friend yet
Its snow clown maps are fun to look at
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2022 23:47:16 GMT -6
Surprised nobody mentioned our Canadian friend yet Its snow clown maps are fun to look at I nearly tossed in the cloth waiting for it to finally finish. Looks good though. I’ll take that with a side of bacon. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2022 0:16:16 GMT -6
Im having trouble accepting the generous QPF. Northwest flow systems never come loaded. The last little system last week proved that. Models all showing widespread moderate snow only to dry up almoat eniterly. They just look too wet.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 0:26:27 GMT -6
Im having trouble accepting the generous QPF. Northwest flow systems never come loaded. The last little system last week proved that. Models all showing widespread moderate snow only to dry up almoat eniterly. They just look too wet. Looks like this thing might bring along some sizable pacific moisture to work with. But ya you do have to wonder how that works out in the real world. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 0:32:59 GMT -6
Really no denying the westward trend anymore with the euro looking like the ukmet.
The metro actually looks to be in a pretty good spot which makes me nervous at this range
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 11, 2022 2:34:11 GMT -6
Not buying it. With our luck with a good setup being pretty slim to none. It's just hard to be positive.
I remember when that wasn't the case here. But we seem to just be in a Winter weather lull these past several yrs.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 11, 2022 3:55:09 GMT -6
Are we getting excited for 1-3 inches?
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 11, 2022 6:17:52 GMT -6
Are we getting excited for 1-3 inches? It’s kind of what we do here and what makes this place great imo. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 11, 2022 7:16:03 GMT -6
Living across from PSEC, I thought for sure by now I'd see power plant-effect snow. It could be my only chance. No luck yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 7:47:20 GMT -6
Starting to feel cautiously optimistic that this system may work out for at least parts of the region. Model runs from last night have a consensus track of the mid-level low across central/SW MO which puts the Metro in a favorable spot. What I don't like is the more sheared look of the EC...I could see that becoming an issue if that upstream ridge takes on a strong positive tilt. We need to maintain a nice closed system to keep stronger lift going for dynamical cooling and good snow rates.
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