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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 11, 2022 8:32:23 GMT -6
This guy seems to think something is brewing for us for Saturday afternoon and evening
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2022 8:46:17 GMT -6
Vast majority of the 6z euro ensembles were west.
12z nam is clearly west.
Might be time to jump aboard if you’ve been a skeptic
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2022 8:58:22 GMT -6
Things do look good at this point, I think we’re all skeptical due to our past winter weather experiences
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 9:07:57 GMT -6
We need a Frivanalysis, stat!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 9:09:09 GMT -6
I say no snow until it is physically snowing. I still have no faith in this pattern.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2022 9:10:18 GMT -6
Honestly, it is not so far west I have concerns about it passing west of us now.
Im still not sold we dont end up much more to the east, but that is getting harder to buy into given the strong push west in the last several runs. The strong ridging in SW canada seems to be helping direct the more southward pivot.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 9:18:26 GMT -6
Honestly, it is not so far west I have concerns about it passing west of us now. Im still not sold we dont end up much more to the east, but that is getting harder to buy into given the strong push west in the last several runs. The strong ridging in SW canada seems to be helping direct the more southward pivot. Agreed, the consistent trend of this getting tucked further SW is encouraging as it helps the cold air to become entrenched and mixing less of an issue for the Metro. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2022 9:29:27 GMT -6
12z Icon is a fascinating storm evolution to watch.
This is a fun one to track.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 11, 2022 10:02:21 GMT -6
12z Icon is a fascinating storm evolution to watch. This is a fun one to track. Vorticity charts are really fun to look at with this one considering the directional movement. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 10:06:56 GMT -6
12z Icon is a fascinating storm evolution to watch. This is a fun one to track. Vorticity charts are really fun to look at with this one considering the directional movement. That spray of vorticity lobes coming off the digging mid-level system is a thing of beauty...sure hope that doesn't get squashed and sheared out as it approaches. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2022 10:08:08 GMT -6
12z gfs looks solid, but starting to get too far west 😂
I expect dry air to eat the eastern half of the precip shield aggressively.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2022 10:08:19 GMT -6
Wow the 12z GFS looks good! Beefy, S and W.
Edit: not that impressive, I would've thought it was hold up and go more easterly instead of fad here and go SE. It just looked so good at the start.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2022 10:08:25 GMT -6
Gfs is just about too far west..we get a short period of snow. Temps near 32. Most is thru central mo.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 10:10:16 GMT -6
GFS is about to turn this into a monster south of here
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Post by mchafin on Jan 11, 2022 10:10:21 GMT -6
Wouldn’t that be a kick in the nards? Getting missed to the west. By a clipper type? Snow drought breeds snow drought.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 11, 2022 10:10:55 GMT -6
Temps around freezing, falling and dark for most of it. I don't see any way ratio's are less than 10 for any of it and could even see 12-14 for latter half.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2022 10:11:30 GMT -6
If you look at the 06z gfs compared to the 12z, there's actually a slight recorrection back to the east in terms of the snow field.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2022 10:12:25 GMT -6
I'm not concerned about temps. If rate is somewhat sufficient the models are overdoing the temps by a couple degrees.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2022 10:13:07 GMT -6
If that 500mb vorticity closes off, somebody is going to get dumped on as it pivots through.
I’m rooting for any outcome where this thing doesn’t get sheared apart. That is the worst to track a nice looking storm that just goes “poof.”
Also, the rest of January looks solid with multiple stretched PV events possible.
Fun times ahead.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2022 10:16:20 GMT -6
I’ll take that gfs pivot. Move it north just a bit for everyone.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 10:18:46 GMT -6
If the GFS would go negative tilt just a bit sooner that would be a dream run
This is a weird system. It’s like a clipper that transforms into a powerhouse southern low.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 10:38:31 GMT -6
This may be a Kc to springfield to little rock storm lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 10:42:25 GMT -6
The potential for this thing to go full negative tilt brings some serious boom potential if we can get the upstream energy in eastern Canada to play along
The models have made some major changes the last 24 hours and I expect they will continue to do so
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 11, 2022 10:45:15 GMT -6
GFS is generating a closed low all the way up to 250mb on that run.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 10:50:28 GMT -6
ukmet is even further west. Im still not excited for the metro yet
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 10:53:30 GMT -6
Keep this trend going and we might be in business Or this thing goes to our west and blows up to our south and east leaving us with nothing lol  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 11, 2022 10:57:54 GMT -6
The positioning of the 850mb low on the UKMET, GFS, and GDPS are pretty close at hour 96.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 10:58:52 GMT -6
It's hard to imagine we'd be left high and dry by a miss to the W/SW...would think we'd still catch some decent WAA snowfall out front. Still lots of outcomes to consider though.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 11:02:18 GMT -6
we will find a way to get missed. Trust me thats the biggest thing we can guarantee
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 11, 2022 11:08:51 GMT -6
we will find a way to get missed. Trust me thats the biggest thing we can guarantee  |
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