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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 13:02:20 GMT -6
What kind of setup is this? The storm for Friday looks so weird coming from the northwest like that only to put on the breaks and pivot and turn into a wrapped up system? You just don't see that very often. I may never have seen that. It's like an clipper morphs into a southern low! Haha We've definitely seen hybrid clippers that dig strongly and take on more southern low characteristics when they pivot and pick up Gulf moisture. I'm not sure I've see one actually try to dig SW like this one being modeled though...which makes me think a correction back NE is likely. There's not a strong block over the top that would keep it from coming further NE...the surface ridge is in Ontario which gives plenty of wiggle room. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 13:26:34 GMT -6
Not a bad look from the GEFS for this weekend. Probably the best look we’ve seen at this stage of the game this winter. Still a good number of non events in there though  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 11, 2022 13:32:30 GMT -6
One more west shift and we’re out of the game At hr. 84 on the euro, everything looks really good. Then over the next few hours it just get squashed as the low sags south into Southern Texas. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 13:43:34 GMT -6
EPS mean is about 0.30” QPF in the metro
Less east, more west
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 11, 2022 13:48:52 GMT -6
The 12z NBM looked pretty good with 3-4” right down the Mississippi How much for union. Lol Use this link. I think the closest station is KYFG. Select the NBE product. Look at S12 it is in 1/10 of inch. It looks like 3.8" for Washington, MO. www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_text |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 11, 2022 14:00:24 GMT -6
For those who missed the conservation a few days ago...the NBM is the National Blend of Models. It is a blend of the GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, EPS, GDPS, GEPS, NAM, 4k NAM, and HRRR. As of right now it does not include the UKMET. It's snow products use realistic model derived SLRs using a blend of various approaches. It also includes station bias correction routines to produce more realistic forecasts.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 11, 2022 14:06:31 GMT -6
So it takes the amount at STL and subtracts the number to itself?
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 14:43:32 GMT -6
NAM Looks great for the metro at the end of the run with a nice band of waa snow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 14:45:03 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 11, 2022 14:46:13 GMT -6
What kind of setup is this? The storm for Friday looks so weird coming from the northwest like that only to put on the breaks and pivot and turn into a wrapped up system? You just don't see that very often. I may never have seen that. It's like an clipper morphs into a southern low! Haha We've definitely seen hybrid clippers that dig strongly and take on more southern low characteristics when they pivot and pick up Gulf moisture. I'm not sure I've see one actually try to dig SW like this one being modeled though...which makes me think a correction back NE is likely. There's not a strong block over the top that would keep it from coming further NE...the surface ridge is in Ontario which gives plenty of wiggle room. Ahh gotcha. Yeah it definitely has some weird characteristics shown on the models. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2022 15:20:07 GMT -6
So basically we're going to end up too far east. Hahahahaha |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 11, 2022 15:22:03 GMT -6
So basically we're going to end up too far east. Hahahahaha Sounds like they may leave the door open for that option.....at least that’s the way I read it. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 11, 2022 15:23:36 GMT -6
I’m sure this will have a NE shift to it before all is said and done. Our chances just depend on how far west it shifts before making the notorious NE shift. Just my current thinking. Which means nothing LOL
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 15:26:54 GMT -6
18z Icon is perfect 3 to 6 in the metro book it lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 15:29:54 GMT -6
So basically we're going to end up too far east. Hahahahaha Sounds like they may leave the door open for that option.....at least that’s the way I read it. I think we’re in a pretty good spot right now, but really don’t want to see this thing keep trending westward. The best accumulating snowfall probabilities on the EPS are across the western counties while the GEFS is more along the Mississippi. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 15:38:42 GMT -6
The 12z GEFS mean would be a full blown panhandle low with WAA snowfall and potential deformation/TROWAL as well. Crazy how dynamic this is with it trying to dig so strongly and then eject out. The timing of that is crucial and I doubt models have a good handle on that quite yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 15:57:15 GMT -6
Definitely a pretty sizeable west shift in the modeling today. The UK and EC are furthest west with the 500mb center passing through E KS or along the MO border. That might still produce some WAA snow in the Metro but the deformation potential would be well off to the W. The dry air potential is real with the NE wind so that's a concern if the track doesn't come back east for sure...it would tend to eat up the WAA with weaker lift.
The timing of the upstream ridge getting knocked down by the kicker wave coming ashore in BC is the biggest factor with the track. The quicker that dampens, the more easterly the track should be. That wave is well out in the Pacific so the timing could still change.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 16:05:43 GMT -6
18z gfs is so close but we get the ol st.louis split
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 16:20:07 GMT -6
The snow map from the 18z GFS is pretty hilarious
Might have to move if that were to verify
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 16:27:38 GMT -6
Conceptually the gfs has trended in our favor this run, just not quite there yet
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 16:31:57 GMT -6
18z NAM sure looks loaded at the end of it's run...if it comes out looking like that it could go kaboom.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 16:35:10 GMT -6
Conceptually the gfs has trended in our favor this run, just not quite there yet It really digs the energy this run. Hell it digs it so much it almost ejects in our wheelhouse for southern stream storms |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 11, 2022 17:03:12 GMT -6
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 11, 2022 17:14:16 GMT -6
This day in 2007 was pretty eventful too. Ice storm that took down a huge pine tree and sent a large branch crashing against my bedroom!   |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2022 17:15:14 GMT -6
GEFS looks a little better at 18z , one good thing that will help our marginal temps is most of the snow should fall at night into Saturday morning. That should help with what accumulation may occur
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2022 17:16:29 GMT -6
Speaking of unusual, that one was quite unusual in that the big thud of snow came on the front end of that system.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 18:02:25 GMT -6
I will never forget the 2019 wet snow 13 inches fell out of that in my by
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2022 18:16:17 GMT -6
That storm was weird...like 30hrs of snow and I got 6 or 7" IMBY. Dry air ate a lot of it up here. What was on the ground was very dense, heavy snow IIRC.
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Jan 11, 2022 18:25:57 GMT -6
Glen’s graphic with that hole of nothing over St Louis made me laugh and shake my head. It was truly ugly. It was either laugh or cry.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 11, 2022 18:27:04 GMT -6
That storm has honestly made me dislike snow removal anymore. Had crews lined up to work it and they didn’t show up. Had to do the full routes myself.......68 hours straight in the truck and then a 3 hour nap and then went another 15 hours to finish it. Needless to say I was a little giddy and actually hearing things that weren’t there.
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