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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2022 22:08:00 GMT -6
So close to hitting us with a big thump of deformation snow on the 00z GFS! 4 to 5 days out you got to like the general look / setup shown across the models so far. You don't want to be in the bulleyes right now anyway, too many moving parts with this crazy cyclone.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 22:09:00 GMT -6
Good trends on gfs in my opinion
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2022 22:09:04 GMT -6
That would be brutal to have 3-7” just north /south and west only to have a dusting to an 1” in St. Louis . Wouldn’t surprise me one bit though
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 22:10:37 GMT -6
Man the GFS really hates St. Louis  |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2022 22:12:04 GMT -6
Notice though look at 12 z to the 0z mived north substantially with the big snows, if this keeps up we are in the big snows. Remember its good not to be the bullseye at this stage
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 11, 2022 22:12:42 GMT -6
I went from basically nothing at noon today to getting 6 plus ….. if this thing comes east 50 miles this could be epic
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 22:15:07 GMT -6
All joking aside thats a pretty encouraging run from the GFS.
It really bombs out the system very close to our wheelhouse but just a tick south of where the metro would want it
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 22:20:43 GMT -6
GFS over the last 5 runs... I can hear the FRIV-O-Meter warming up  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2022 22:21:54 GMT -6
Gem looks pretty solid on the black and white charts
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2022 22:49:28 GMT -6
What we really have here is a clipper system that goes through the transition to more of a southern storm. The region where that transition takes place is likely to see a snow minimum.. and we all know where the models are pointing for that right now.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 11, 2022 22:53:39 GMT -6
What we really have here is a clipper system that goes through the transition to more of a southern storm. The region where that transition takes place is likely to see a snow minimum.. and we all know where the models are pointing for that right now. That’s actually 10B on the idiots guide. “People will freak out as Models show the snow minimum directly over the St. Louis area” |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 11, 2022 22:55:55 GMT -6
2 things:
1. I’m not sure if it’s because of how warm December and November were but This January has been/felt downright cold.
2. It’s great to be able to track a storm again! Now let’s hope it comes to fruition in our area and makes everyone happy.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2022 22:57:08 GMT -6
Lol. Ukie is laughable as well. Unbelievable.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2022 23:11:58 GMT -6
00z GEM is another description of what Chris just mentioned with the transition zone snow minimum i.e. St. Louis eastern metro in IL / central IL! Going to be a tight snow gradient. Though, the initial WAA snow is decent on the 00z GEM. Got to like the overall pattern though at this range!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2022 23:12:07 GMT -6
Lol. Ukie is laughable as well. Unbelievable. Indeed. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2022 23:20:16 GMT -6
This will be an interesting storm to track, but I have my doubts about getting our first 1" snow from this. It is definitely not a slam dunk that we see 1 inch or more. It's also not a done deal that we don't. But this system needs to be approached with extreme forecast caution.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2022 23:34:51 GMT -6
I assume these were samples of our storm of interest? I saw somewhere online earlier today that a recon flight was scheduled to sample the energy
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Post by bear1 on Jan 11, 2022 23:35:47 GMT -6
it's still 72 hrs out & it'll change 1 way or the other 
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 11, 2022 23:37:00 GMT -6
Our familiar ways of getting screwed are old and wore out. We need some new ones to keep things interesting. Hopefully this system will deliver.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 11, 2022 23:40:30 GMT -6
Our familiar ways of getting screwed are old and wore out. We need some new ones to keep things interesting. Hopefully this system will deliver. …deliver new ways to screw us out of snow? |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 12, 2022 0:14:12 GMT -6
What we really have here is a clipper system that goes through the transition to more of a southern storm. The region where that transition takes place is likely to see a snow minimum.. and we all know where the models are pointing for that right now. Yeah I thought it was pretty interesting seeing that on the models. (Clipper to southern storm) But the transition of that and STL being in the snow "minimum". Not impressed!  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 12, 2022 2:42:58 GMT -6
06z NAM is borderline perfect.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 3:41:15 GMT -6
Came here to get the 00z updates after falling asleep before they were running. Saw an Ed Bassmaster GIF and was not disappointed, lol.
Definitely some interesting trends with that pivot/transition of the mid-level system. Could definitely see how that screws STL. Gotta love the 12"+ snowband in IA that falls apart down the river valley.
Anywho, let's see what the 12z runs show.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 4:20:31 GMT -6
The WAA portion of this system still looks pretty good for the region, although the feed of dry air might eat into that. The pivot and eventual transition to a full blown southern low may occur too late and too far S for us though...models really hold onto the SE slide with the shortwave axis remaining positively tilted until it gets past us. We need to see it wrap up quicker to get that deformation/TROWAL going further North. The NAM offers some hope for that but the globals are pretty far off at this point. Quite possibly another AR/KY/TN storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 5:34:56 GMT -6
06z gfs is even better for the metro. 6 inch band getting in the the southern metro
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 6:15:29 GMT -6
The GFS is pretty darn close...would like to see the other globals come further NE before getting too excited about that.
The good news is most models drop several inches nearly area wide with the WAA snowfall...some good LER jet dynamics with broad diffluence on some runs. Still concerned about the dry air for the IL side though.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2022 6:44:26 GMT -6
6z euro came in wetter for most of the metro with the WAA. Probably good for 2-4 inches or so except in the far southern counties and those on the Illinois side.
Looks like it wouldn’t have part 2, but a pretty good run overall
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 12, 2022 7:18:24 GMT -6
Just such a weird storm.
You can almost feel and see the struggle as models try and sort out an atmosphere that features the interaction between somewhat competitive influences.La Nina MJO, etc.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 12, 2022 7:20:25 GMT -6
The GFS has us down here in double digits….. what could possibly go wrong lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 7:24:07 GMT -6
Show time, this keeps up metro will be in double digits today lol. I like 1 to 4 in my opinion at this stage area wide
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