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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 9, 2022 10:40:49 GMT -6
Laymen terms please? Are you saying the oceans as a global scale as a whole are warmer than they ever have been right now? The amount of energy in the warm oceans right now. I thought Chris shared a post from Ryan Maue mentioning how colder ocean temps are maybe leading to a record cyclone in terms of pressure. Sorry I'm an amateur to knowing what happens in the oceans. Other than some of the indexes, basic idea of La Nina and El Nino, this is all foreign language to me! Thanks! The ocean from 0-2000 meters globally is warmer than it has been in at least 60 years. Some areas and layers have actually cooled though most notably the high North Atlantic just south of Greenland. This is likely due to a decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which is a mechanism that transports heat from the low North Atlantic to the high North Atlantic. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is the net of the outgoing longwave radiation and incoming shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere (TOA). A positive value means the system is gaining heat/energy. A negative value means the system is losing heat/energy. An EEI of 0.87 W/m2 over one year is 0.87 W/m2 * 510e12 m2 * 365.24 d * 24 h/d * 3600 s/h = 14 zetajoules. The energy is stored in 4 primary reservoirs: ocean, land, air, and cryosphere. The excess energy from a positive EEI is taken up by all 4 reservoirs. But the stored energy also moves from one reservoir to another. For example, El Nino increases the transfer from ocean to air while La Nina decreases it. That's why the air warms during an El Nino and cools during a La Nina. It's also why the rate of energy uptake in the ocean declines during El Nino and increases during La Nina. There are obviously several mechanisms that modulate the transfer of energy to/from the cryosphere as well. The cryosphere can be subdivided into sea-ice and land-ice. Sea-ice can be subdivided into NH and SH. There can be extended periods (decades) where the net energy transfer from the NH sea ice is zero or even negative (more freezing than melting) even though all of the other reservoirs have net energy gains. Eventually though the imbalance gets big enough that NH sea ice is forced to start taking on energy/heat again (more melting than freezing) to bring it into an equilibrium with the other reservoirs. Arctic sea ice will continue melting at some point. It might be 2030 or it might begin again this year. Either way it will continue to melt and decline eventually. BTW...as of Feb. 8th Antarctic sea ice in the SH is at its lowest extent for this date in the satellite era. And globally sea ice is at it's 2nd lowest area just a bit above 2017. For point of comparison 14 ZJ is enough to melt all of the Arctic sea ice with some left to spare or to raise the temperature of the atmosphere by 2.8 C. But because of the huge amount of thermal inertia in the ocean it can only raise the temperature of the first 200 meters of the ocean by 0.05 C or the first 2000 meters by a measly 0.005 C. The ocean has a lot of buffering capacity and keeps the climate of Earth relatively stable. About 89% of the gained energy goes into the ocean with the land taking 6%, the cryosphere taking 4%, and the air taking 1%. The ocean's buffering capacity essentially bottlenecks the gain/loss rate of the other reservoirs because heat/energy transfer is modulated by the temperature differential of the reservoirs. If the ocean surface increases by only 0.05 C then the air temperature increase is essentially capped at around 0.05 C as well give or take short term perturbations. I wasn't really tracking the Greenland cyclone so I can't comment on it too much unfortunately. Wow, thanks for the write up! It will take a little while for this to soak into my brain. This is a a great start, so brilliant that you are able to retain all this info. You could start a you tube channel! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 9, 2022 10:42:58 GMT -6
Laymen terms please? Are you saying the oceans as a global scale as a whole are warmer than they ever have been right now? The amount of energy in the warm oceans right now. I thought Chris shared a post from Ryan Maue mentioning how colder ocean temps are maybe leading to a record cyclone in terms of pressure. Sorry I'm an amateur to knowing what happens in the oceans. Other than some of the indexes, basic idea of La Nina and El Nino, this is all foreign language to me! Thanks! The ocean from 0-2000 meters globally is warmer than it has been in at least 60 years. Some areas and layers have actually cooled though most notably the high North Atlantic just south of Greenland. This is likely due to a decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which is a mechanism that transports heat from the low North Atlantic to the high North Atlantic. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is the net of the outgoing longwave radiation and incoming shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere (TOA). A positive value means the system is gaining heat/energy. A negative value means the system is losing heat/energy. An EEI of 0.87 W/m2 over one year is 0.87 W/m2 * 510e12 m2 * 365.24 d * 24 h/d * 3600 s/h = 14 zetajoules. The energy is stored in 4 primary reservoirs: ocean, land, air, and cryosphere. The excess energy from a positive EEI is taken up by all 4 reservoirs. But the stored energy also moves from one reservoir to another. For example, El Nino increases the transfer from ocean to air while La Nina decreases it. That's why the air warms during an El Nino and cools during a La Nina. It's also why the rate of energy uptake in the ocean declines during El Nino and increases during La Nina. There are obviously several mechanisms that modulate the transfer of energy to/from the cryosphere as well. The cryosphere can be subdivided into sea-ice and land-ice. Sea-ice can be subdivided into NH and SH. There can be extended periods (decades) where the net energy transfer from the NH sea ice is zero or even negative (more freezing than melting) even though all of the other reservoirs have net energy gains. Eventually though the imbalance gets big enough that NH sea ice is forced to start taking on energy/heat again (more melting than freezing) to bring it into an equilibrium with the other reservoirs. Arctic sea ice will continue melting at some point. It might be 2030 or it might begin again this year. Either way it will continue to melt and decline eventually. BTW...as of Feb. 8th Antarctic sea ice in the SH is at its lowest extent for this date in the satellite era. And globally sea ice is at it's 2nd lowest area just a bit above 2017. For point of comparison 14 ZJ is enough to melt all of the Arctic sea ice with some left to spare or to raise the temperature of the atmosphere by 2.8 C. But because of the huge amount of thermal inertia in the ocean it can only raise the temperature of the first 200 meters of the ocean by 0.05 C or the first 2000 meters by a measly 0.005 C. The ocean has a lot of buffering capacity and keeps the climate of Earth relatively stable. About 89% of the gained energy goes into the ocean with the land taking 6%, the cryosphere taking 4%, and the air taking 1%. The ocean's buffering capacity essentially bottlenecks the gain/loss rate of the other reservoirs because heat/energy transfer is modulated by the temperature differential of the reservoirs. If the ocean surface increases by only 0.05 C then the air temperature increase is essentially capped at around 0.05 C as well give or take short term perturbations. I wasn't really tracking the Greenland cyclone so I can't comment on it too much unfortunately. Took the words right out of my mouth. I mean precisely. Incredible. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 9, 2022 10:45:49 GMT -6
Unfortunately there’s not a lot of cold air around at the time . Looks mostly like rain currently, the GEFS looks the best and has trended better each day , but not a lot of other model or ensemble support on a consistent basis
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 9, 2022 11:08:10 GMT -6
12z ggem is a cutter and the 12z gfs ensembles only have a couple good members. Not a great model suite today. Would not recommend getting too invested in this one.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 9, 2022 11:16:28 GMT -6
12z ggem is a cutter and the 12z gfs ensembles only have a couple good members. Not a great model suite today. Would not recommend getting too invested in this one. Yeah, I haven't gotten the "warm and fuzzies" from that one yet...models have been waffling hard with the large scale stuff and a lot of runs are missing the necessary ingredients for a major winter storm around here. Still worth keeping an eye on though. And yes, a nice hard rain would be nice to wash off the grime. The resale value of my corroded early/mid 2000s vehicles would greatly appreciate it. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 9, 2022 11:31:45 GMT -6
I would keep an eye on Sunday/Monday for a clipper that could drop 1-3 or 2-4 inches.
12z ukmet looks great on Sunday. Could be a sneaky one.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 9, 2022 11:58:11 GMT -6
I would keep an eye on Sunday/Monday for a clipper that could drop 1-3 or 2-4 inches. 12z ukmet looks great on Sunday. Could be a sneaky one. I've still been keeping an eye on the general "weekend" time frame. The airmass coming in on Saturday looks pretty darn cold and could set the stage for some flakes with the next wave dropping through. Climo and seasonal trend certainly favors N/Central IL though...at least for meaningful accums. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 9, 2022 12:10:34 GMT -6
12z ggem is a cutter and the 12z gfs ensembles only have a couple good members. Not a great model suite today. Would not recommend getting too invested in this one. Yeah, I haven't gotten the "warm and fuzzies" from that one yet...models have been waffling hard with the large scale stuff and a lot of runs are missing the necessary ingredients for a major winter storm around here. Still worth keeping an eye on though. And yes, a nice hard rain would be nice to wash off the grime. The resale value of my corroded early/mid 2000s vehicles would greatly appreciate it. I know that no two systems behave the same, so I have to agree, I’m a little concerned with the snow outcome for this one. When we have to rely on timing, it hardly works out for us. Some runs just don’t get the cold air established before it arrives. All of that said, I don’t see anything that would cut off our cold air source. (I.e. Clipper to the north or what not). I suppose there is potential the cold air isn’t being handled properly and or the strength of it isn’t realized. I find it suspect that a warm front originating in west Texas would have the strength to move out an arctic airmass, even without an ideal cold air anchor in place. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 9, 2022 12:15:45 GMT -6
A lot of moving pieces for sure...and we saw how models tried to cut the last storm around this time frame. The cold air/NW flow tied to the N branch has been stubborn most of the winter, and models have not picked up on that well pretty consistently. The GFS has seemed to do the best overall here...the GEFS would be my "go to" right now for that system.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 9, 2022 12:51:05 GMT -6
After a fairly quick glance at the 00z/12z data that has rolled in, there's one thing that sticks out with next week's storm if you compare the setup to GHD...the strength of the respective ridges involved. The roles seem to be reversed this time around...with a much stronger SE ridge, and weaker upstream arctic ridge. Guidance is suggesting a 1035-1040mb ridge anchoring along the SE Coast earlier in the week as the storm develops across the Great Basin and Front Range. That's a problem, as it will mix out the cold air that's in place, and potentially lock up the cold air up north until the bulk of the energy and moisture passes through. Tuesday looks like a straight up blowtorch. We will need a significantly stronger wave to pass through the N stream to get the boundary through...and there's not a whole lot of support for that currently.
I'd say the most probable outcome is a big rainer on the front end, with some ice or snow on the tail end...but nothing major. And potentially a significant severe outbreak across the Dixieland/Deep South with the marine boundary trying to lift inland. Could be a recipe for some big time HP sups and tornadoes.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 9, 2022 13:28:10 GMT -6
12z euro is a cutter too.
Bummer
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 9, 2022 14:42:49 GMT -6
I’ve noticed this year we have very few days with even trace snowfall …. Seems like in that past you have 10-15 days with flurries or even a light dusting….. this year it seems you are going weeks without a single flake
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Post by dschreib on Feb 9, 2022 16:15:14 GMT -6
Took the words right out of my mouth. I mean precisely. Incredible. Sometimes I wish bdgwx and jmg378s would up their game a little. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 9, 2022 16:32:14 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Feb 9, 2022 16:35:10 GMT -6
What does that mean warm weather?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 9, 2022 16:43:38 GMT -6
What does that mean warm weather? Ya for us that usually means warm, dry weather.  Pic credit |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 9, 2022 16:44:01 GMT -6
can't wait for 95 in march lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 9, 2022 18:55:34 GMT -6
I'll believe it when I see it. The -EPO doesn't seem to be going anywhere and I give that more credit for the sensible weather here than the AO. The arctic air may be on limited terms...but I wouldn't assume a torchy spring with a +AO.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 9, 2022 19:05:59 GMT -6
I have to agree. The EPO is more of a driver than the AO when the desired result is snow. Add to it, not all -AOs are created equal. But a -EPO has a crazy ability to induce below normal temps.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 9, 2022 20:44:51 GMT -6
NAM has the little clipper on Sunday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 9, 2022 21:49:12 GMT -6
00z Icon takes the low right over STL next week, meaning lots of rain.
Extrapolating it out, I would expect some wet, backside snow as the low pulls away to the northeast.
If the lead wave was a hair stronger/faster we would have something pretty interesting.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 10, 2022 3:44:19 GMT -6
can't wait for 95 in march lol Don't start that crap! 😖 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 7:30:32 GMT -6
6z nam is really dropping some nice snow Sunday with the clipper.
Those on the Illinois side and the northern metro get several inches on that run.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 10, 2022 8:01:18 GMT -6
Yes NAM and RGEM have it in the metro, Euro/Ukmet/Gfs are just north east of the metro
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 10, 2022 8:10:35 GMT -6
its not going to snow sunday nor next week. Maybe early March..
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 8:16:08 GMT -6
its not going to snow sunday nor next week. Maybe early March.. Are you going to buy us steak if you are wrong? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 10, 2022 9:26:51 GMT -6
its not going to snow sunday nor next week. Maybe early March.. It'll snow Sunday. Rain next week. Warmth to end Feb and start March. Then we will get one last shot at heavy wet snow. Lock it in. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 10, 2022 9:28:52 GMT -6
RGEM has temps crashing Sunday and barely gets us above 20.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 10, 2022 9:33:25 GMT -6
00z Icon takes the low right over STL next week, meaning lots of rain. Extrapolating it out, I would expect some wet, backside snow as the low pulls away to the northeast. If the lead wave was a hair stronger/faster we would have something pretty interesting. Icon has been out to lunch with just about every storm if I recall. Maybe I’m wrong. All of that said, I think late next week still has some potential. Too soon to stick a fork in it, IMO. Gonna have to see what happens behind the Clipper Sunday. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 10, 2022 9:42:30 GMT -6
IL may get snow Sunday..but that is not "here" And a couple snow showers or flakes isn't real snow. I expect all brown ground here lol
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