|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 10, 2022 10:04:17 GMT -6
Metro looks goot for 1 to 3 sunday. Meaning st.charles, st.louis counties points ne.
I agree where you are snowman its less likely however way too early to say you wont get any. And i am ok with a little snow. As long.as we are done with the back breaking heavy snows that shut down the town for days, as I had no ma delivery for 4 days strait last week. Im ok with some mood snow.
I am really starting to get spring fever however with lots of plans for my yard. Almost wish I could fast forward to april.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 10:25:49 GMT -6
Models are starting to have the storm next week “rage” a little bit.
12z runs of the Icon and gfs are going into the 970s for pressure.
Might need to watch that trend for potential severe weather in the southeastern viewing area.
Also, Iowa gets their first blizzard of the season. Haven’t seen a storm get going like what is being modeled in the middle of the country in a while.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 10, 2022 10:46:08 GMT -6
Yes maybe a chance on Sunday for metro east , most likely in Illinois, the bigger storm Thursday all models and ensembles have really locked in on a strengthening cutter that blasts Iowa leaving us with a ton of rain to cold no backside snow either. We would need at least a 200 -250 mile south east shift to get in the game.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 10, 2022 10:51:20 GMT -6
I'm going to assume a wrapped up bomb is overdone with next week's storm...we haven't seen anything like that this season except for the one Nor'Easter. The N stream has been consistently progressive and flatter than model depictions at this range which will make it tough to get the right trof orientation for a wrapped up cutter, IMO. Not saying it won't happen...but I'm leaning towards a flatter look overall. The one caveat is that we have seen a pretty substantial pattern change...so maybe it has merit. Time will tell.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Feb 10, 2022 10:58:21 GMT -6
Took the words right out of my mouth. I mean precisely. Incredible. Sometimes I wish bdgwx and jmg378s would up their game a little. I'll get right on that. Maybe some weather memes, a Facebook weather hype page, or some overly specific seasonal forecasts?  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 10:58:47 GMT -6
I'm going to assume a wrapped up bomb is overdone with next week's storm...we haven't seen anything like that this season except for the one Nor'Easter. The N stream has been consistently progressive and flatter than model depictions at this range which will make it tough to get the right trof orientation for a wrapped up cutter, IMO. Not saying it won't happen...but I'm leaning towards a flatter look overall. The one caveat is that we have seen a pretty substantial pattern change...so maybe it has merit. Time will tell. 12z ggem is super flat and gets STL in the game lol. Don’t think models are quite locked in yet on that storm. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 11:08:07 GMT -6
12z gfs ensembles look pretty good. Mean is around 5 inches for the northern metro for the storm next week.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Feb 10, 2022 11:23:04 GMT -6
Sometimes I wish bdgwx and jmg378s would up their game a little. I'll get right on that. Maybe some weather memes, a Facebook weather hype page, or some overly specific seasonal forecasts?  I will literally read some of your posts to our kids (20 & 24), while telling them that there are people on this page so smart it makes my brain hurt. |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 10, 2022 11:40:26 GMT -6
I'll get right on that. Maybe some weather memes, a Facebook weather hype page, or some overly specific seasonal forecasts? I will literally read some of your posts to our kids (20 & 24), while telling them that there are people on this page so smart it makes my brain hurt. Reminds me when I go podcast surfing. I’ll find an expert on a subject and they completely nerd out and leave me sitting there like wait, what? Also, nerd is a term of endearment and not meant in a derogatory or demeaning manner. Two of my kids are math and science nerds. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 10, 2022 13:23:32 GMT -6
euro has a bunch of rain followed by a couple inches of snow late next week
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 10, 2022 14:57:11 GMT -6
that. is. a lot of rain.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 10, 2022 15:12:34 GMT -6
Sometimes I wish bdgwx and jmg378s would up their game a little. I'll get right on that. Maybe some weather memes, a Facebook weather hype page, or some overly specific seasonal forecasts? I was thinking a daily play-by-play of the CFS 768 hour forecast. |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 10, 2022 15:16:56 GMT -6
euro has a bunch of rain followed by a couple inches of snow late next week Just imagine if it happened in winter… |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 16:30:15 GMT -6
Pretty big jog south on the 18z gfs.
Interesting trends since the ggem ran today.
|
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 10, 2022 16:35:45 GMT -6
Pretty big jog south on the 18z gfs. Interesting trends since the ggem ran today. Really gets a stout defo zone going. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 10, 2022 17:10:19 GMT -6
Another 150-200 mile shift south and we will be in business, we just need that low to continue to track weaker similar to the Gem . It looks like the Sunday clipper will be north east of the metro
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 10, 2022 17:11:15 GMT -6
Pretty big jog south on the 18z gfs. Interesting trends since the ggem ran today. Looks like the GEFS mean still has the low going right over STL. Interesting for northern IL but not much the STL area. Still lots of time for things to change of course. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 10, 2022 17:20:46 GMT -6
18z GEFS shows the potential  |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Feb 10, 2022 17:25:02 GMT -6
18z GEFS shows the potential “Seven, seven, seven” (Friends reference) |
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 10, 2022 17:25:19 GMT -6
18z GEFS shows the potential What is that... 4 out of 20? Like 15%? |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 10, 2022 17:28:01 GMT -6
Pretty wide range of possible outcomes next week with the 12z runs still. The GEM and GEFS have more of that "flatter" look that I was mentioning with a more dominant N stream. I used the term "progressive" here in my last post, and that doesn't really explain it well. The trend this season has been for a more flat, or even NW flow in the mid-levels across the N tier and Great Lakes. And models have tried to build too much ridging in at this range pretty consistently. There will certainly be rain on the front end of this, similar to GHD...but if that flatter setup verifies, it could get interesting on the backside. The GEFS mean h85 track is roughly from SGF to STL to IND. That's not a great track for snow, but it suggests potential for an icy mix, changing over to snow. The operational is substantially warmer and further N...the EC is more in-between and the GEM is downright wintry but it looks suspiciously aggressive with the boundary passage. There does seem to be some potential for winter weather if the N stream behaves like some of the models show.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 10, 2022 17:33:11 GMT -6
18z GEFS shows the potential What is that... 4 out of 20? Like 15%? Ya about a quarter have a significant snow storm for someone in the area. Not bad for being a week out. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 10, 2022 17:33:34 GMT -6
Looks like a few flurries or light SNSH on Saturday as the teeth of the arctic airmass moves in with a vort channel overhead. And temps will probably struggle to rise much above 30, if that...with a blustery N wind. The clipper Sunday looks to track NE of the Metro mostly, but again some SNSH activity is possible...maybe enough to get the ground whitened up. Then attention turns to the warm up and storm potential next week. Classic mid-February stuff.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 10, 2022 21:17:14 GMT -6
I’ve noticed this year we have very few days with even trace snowfall …. Seems like in that past you have 10-15 days with flurries or even a light dusting….. this year it seems you are going weeks without a single flake Yes very much so. I've kept track in years past. Where we got flakes 30+ days |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 10, 2022 21:38:12 GMT -6
It has been a slow winter in terms of lack of snow days. It seemed pretty droughty overall up until the GHD storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 10, 2022 22:12:00 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is having issues tonight
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 10, 2022 22:12:06 GMT -6
The track of the clipper this weekend is very good for accumulating snow along and East of the river. The issue is no moisture. The nam and rgem for kstl. The is a classic huge fluffy flakes clipper if we saturate.   |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 22:16:59 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is having issues tonight Yep, stuck with only the Icon so far. Looks like it tries to clip the northern counties with a deformation band. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 22:51:26 GMT -6
00z ggem remains bullish for backside snow next week across the northern counties.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 10, 2022 23:26:59 GMT -6
Nothing but rain next week for the area on the 00z GFS
|
|
