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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 10, 2022 23:32:31 GMT -6
Nothing but rain next week for the area on the 00z GFS 00z gfs ensemble mean certainly favors the Missouri/Iowa border into northeastern Illinois for winter weather. Gfs is clearly the north outlier at this time. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 10, 2022 23:33:43 GMT -6
I would not mind some spring time thunderstorms next week. That is the best sleeping weather
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 11, 2022 7:13:03 GMT -6
Sailors take warn...  |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 11, 2022 8:38:03 GMT -6
Is the rain coming south or heading east? Anyone know?
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 11, 2022 8:40:37 GMT -6
Is the rain coming south or heading east? Anyone know? ESE looks to be current movement on radar. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 11, 2022 8:46:41 GMT -6
Nothing better than watching rain move in from the north in February……..
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2022 8:50:25 GMT -6
IDOT was out spraying bridges with beet juice brine yesterday...guess that was a waste.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 11, 2022 9:32:48 GMT -6
IDOT was out spraying bridges with beet juice brine yesterday...guess that was a waste. Really depends on how hard it rains. With the beet juice it tends to “stick” to the surface and hold better than just a simple brine solution. If I knew I would be in the snow removal business for 10+ more years (NOT gonna be that long tho 😊) I would probably switch over to a liquid chemical application. As the technology changes it is becoming much more popular for municipalities and private contractors as well. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2022 9:48:32 GMT -6
Sections of the southern counties are included in the 15% severe risk for Thursday
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2022 9:51:16 GMT -6
IDOT was out spraying bridges with beet juice brine yesterday...guess that was a waste. Really depends on how hard it rains. With the beet juice it tends to “stick” to the surface and hold better than just a simple brine solution. If I knew I would be in the snow removal business for 10+ more years (NOT gonna be that long tho 😊) I would probably switch over to a liquid chemical application. As the technology changes it is becoming much more popular for municipalities and private contractors as well. It definitely stuck to my car as I drove by  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2022 10:17:59 GMT -6
12z Icon is pretty close to a nice backside snow for the metro north, while the 12z gfs remains well north.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 11, 2022 10:23:13 GMT -6
Really depends on how hard it rains. With the beet juice it tends to “stick” to the surface and hold better than just a simple brine solution. If I knew I would be in the snow removal business for 10+ more years (NOT gonna be that long tho 😊) I would probably switch over to a liquid chemical application. As the technology changes it is becoming much more popular for municipalities and private contractors as well. It definitely stuck to my car as I drove by  I've wondered about that ever since beet juice was first put in to use. Beets have a lot of sugar in them. Some varieties like sugar beets have a lot more than others. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2022 10:54:44 GMT -6
12z Icon is pretty close to a nice backside snow for the metro north, while the 12z gfs remains well north. 12z GFS operational run looks like a northern outlier looking at its ensembles  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 11:14:41 GMT -6
Yes the GEFS brought the decent snow mean back in the area. Gem looks different as well
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2022 11:22:57 GMT -6
GEFS mean with a track through our winter weather wheelhouse...that storm continues to look interesting on multiple facets.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2022 11:33:28 GMT -6
GEFS mean with a track through our winter weather wheelhouse...that storm continues to look interesting on multiple facets. Last nights EPS had the mean surface low taking a similar track. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2022 11:35:28 GMT -6
GEFS mean with a track through our winter weather wheelhouse...that storm continues to look interesting on multiple facets. I don’t think track is going to be the problem with this one. I think it will track favorably for the heaviest axis somewhere along/north of I-70. Now, I am a little concerned about it having a cold connection. Gonna have to thread the needle on this one between a strong enough storm to draw in enough cold air, but not so strong it sends it cutting. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2022 11:39:49 GMT -6
Totally agree...the cold air isn't nearly as robust with this one. Any backside snow looks to be wet and heavy. And I'm not convinced ice will be a big concern with the lack of low-level arctic airmass involved. Looking like a pretty classic early spring storm.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 11:40:21 GMT -6
Yep , I agree definitely a more thread the needle storm
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2022 11:43:04 GMT -6
We need a southern shift , with a classic closed low and a nice deformation band . I think that’s are only chance of winter precipitation unless something drastic changes. The Gem today had a real weak low go north west of us (with very little snow) then a secondary low form to far south east of our area
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2022 11:54:54 GMT -6
Once again, some very impressive cold across S/Central Canada up into AK/Yukon/NWT with widespread -20 to -40*F air temps...even a few -50*F readings. Temps are really going to struggle tomorrow.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2022 11:59:52 GMT -6
Pack is holding up better than expected. The rain didn’t help, but this time tomorrow I’ll have a glacier.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2022 12:08:35 GMT -6
Still holding on here too...but it's pretty splotchy.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 11, 2022 12:13:09 GMT -6
I'm amazed at how the snowpack is hanging on here on the north facing hillsides after a week of temps in the 50's and sunshine. It is getting spottier in some areas but there are also areas where it looks like a fresh 2-4 inch snowfall. The 1-2 inches of sleet underneath and the cold that we had weeks leading up to the storm is responsible for it holding on.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2022 12:13:12 GMT -6
Canadian ensembles have a very flat look to them for next week. Very few wrapped up cyclones. It would put the area in a good spot for overrunning winter weather  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2022 13:17:55 GMT -6
12z euro looks the most reasonable of the operational models this model suite. Gfs is way too amped/north and the ggem is way too flat/weak.
A bit of a role reversal to see the gfs amped and the euro more subdued in the medium range.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2022 13:25:33 GMT -6
12z euro looks the most reasonable of the operational models this model suite. Gfs is way too amped/north and the ggem is way too flat/weak. A bit of a role reversal to see the gfs amped and the euro more subdued in the medium range. I'm sure they tweaked the models again 🙄 |
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Post by birddog on Feb 11, 2022 13:33:11 GMT -6
.31" out of that event this morning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2022 14:14:39 GMT -6
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Post by amstilost on Feb 11, 2022 14:40:28 GMT -6
Based on the map that Snowman posted, I need a 150 mile south shift to be in the middle. Really don't want severe weather. The ground appears to have soaked up the moisture nicely. Walked the perimeter of the property with the grandkids we were watching yesterday. There was still enough patches of snow for a snowball fight.  Actually, more like slushballs vs. snowballs. Lots of sleet left in the patches. |
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Actually, more like slushballs vs. snowballs. Lots of sleet left in the patches.