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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2022 22:11:59 GMT -6
00z gfs is very close to a full blown blizzard for southeastern Missouri by the end of the week.
Looks like it is going strongly towards the euro camp.
Very cool
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 6, 2022 22:15:40 GMT -6
There is some serious potential for some heavy, heavy snow in about 115 hours.
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 6, 2022 22:18:40 GMT -6
All of you who think this is the last storm of the winter will be in for a rude awakening. I guarantee you this pattern isn't done just yet. One could argue around the 9-11th of Match. Bang. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 6, 2022 22:35:35 GMT -6
Wow another amazing run. The building continuity is very agreeable at this juncture. Man and it's not that far out. The 00Z gfs has 8-12" This is from SWIL during heavy snow. That's a perfect sounding for 1-2" an hour rates with huge flakes and high ratios  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 6, 2022 22:37:36 GMT -6
Yea tonight’s run is almost perfect
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 6, 2022 22:42:25 GMT -6
00Z GGEM HAS 6"+ RIGHT THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE METRO
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 6, 2022 22:50:04 GMT -6
GEFS took a big step toward the euro camp. Its still not as amplified as the EPS, but it's trending more amplified the last few runs.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 6, 2022 22:53:04 GMT -6
Nice trends for sure , Ukmet still has a 1-3” snow but not the I44 6-10” crushers the other models are showing
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Post by bear1 on Mar 7, 2022 1:40:17 GMT -6
Topped out at 1.79 in the gauge & now I got a few flakes flittering around... temp is 36° at 1:40 a.m.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 7, 2022 5:40:03 GMT -6
Now the GFS does the STL split ….. hopefully it’s just one bad run
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Post by pbc12871 on Mar 7, 2022 7:03:58 GMT -6
Dippin' dots falling in Ballwin.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 7, 2022 7:21:49 GMT -6
Seems most guidance suggest abt a quarter inch of qpf for the late week rocket. Lots of diffs in the model runs, but it seems like going nws forecast believes snow fall is likely during this period in the metro. Lots of inhibiting factors to overcome for it to become impactful but we have a long way to go. Without that southeast ridge, thinking the southerners will see something fairly meaningful but not sure of impact yet.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2022 7:41:41 GMT -6
 65 degrees to accumulating snow in about 24 hours. Have to love it. |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Mar 7, 2022 7:55:14 GMT -6
Drizzle mixed with snow in Mascoutah
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 7, 2022 8:03:56 GMT -6
65 degrees to accumulating snow in about 24 hours. Have to love it. Looks like liquid concrete for sure. |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Mar 7, 2022 9:33:21 GMT -6
Also forgot to mention, we had 2.2" rain in the past 24 hours
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2022 9:33:54 GMT -6
Some interesting trends in the modeling WRT the storm later this week. There's a strong signal for a band of Fgen forced snow to develop as the N stream shortwave presses in on Friday. It looks likely at least light accumulating snow will develop across the region. The question becomes the amount of phasing involved. The EC pretty much squashes the S stream shortwave which doesn't allow robust secondary energy to develop. The GFS shows better phasing potential and a healthy secondary. The jet dynamics on the GFS are very impressive as well.
This looks to be a solid watcher for the area...
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Post by dmbstl on Mar 7, 2022 9:38:57 GMT -6
Dumped 2.3" out of the rain gauge this morning. Thought I'd have more given how long it rained pretty decently for.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2022 9:54:18 GMT -6
I finally got a rainwater collector set up yesterday...right in the nick of time! Unbelievable how much water can be produced by half of a smaller pole barn roof with a soaker like last night.
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Post by REB on Mar 7, 2022 9:55:04 GMT -6
2.14" in my back yard!.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2022 10:06:10 GMT -6
Welp..gfs is all south
Not a flake here
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 7, 2022 10:10:01 GMT -6
Welp..gfs is all south Not a flake here I'm ok with that. Im done with the Snow lol. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 7, 2022 10:11:23 GMT -6
You know Winter is almost over when Hidden Valley closes for the Season.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2022 10:41:33 GMT -6
Bad trends this morning for late week…
Best hope might be the lead wave with the Fgen dropping a few inches. Secondary development looks like it won’t get rocking until east of the region. Bummer considering the strength some models show it achieving. Would have been a cool way to close the book on winter.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 7, 2022 10:41:46 GMT -6
NWS Springfield, MO put out this graphic.
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Post by birddog on Mar 7, 2022 10:45:54 GMT -6
Inch of rain last night. 1.49" for a 2 day total
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2022 10:49:39 GMT -6
GFS has trended towards the squashed look of the EC...that S stream energy has to get out front more or it's not going to develop in time to develop a deformation across the region.
Still think there's decent potential for lighter post-frontal accumulations without the secondary potential...but it's a tricky setup.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 7, 2022 11:15:54 GMT -6
I think flakes will fly but attm, its to be seen whether or not we will see any impact. I wld think southerners might be interested in this system. Even if this system phases and causes it to take a more northern track, it cld still give the southern area some wintry wx. But wow, that cold means business even if its short lived. Looks like pleasant temps with a spring type pattern may be setting up later next week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2022 11:30:20 GMT -6
Looks like we might have to rely on the northern stream energy for snow late week. The southern stream energy looks to phase to late for us.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2022 11:39:30 GMT -6
Bad trends this morning for late week… Best hope might be the lead wave with the Fgen dropping a few inches. Secondary development looks like it won’t get rocking until east of the region. Bummer considering the strength some models show it achieving. Would have been a cool way to close the book on winter. Last night had a 990 low. |
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