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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2022 11:46:45 GMT -6
Late week storm has potential, but there are many details that need sorted out. As each one does, it will drastically alter the model output.
This winter we have relied on over-running setups for our wintry weather. Phasing has for sure not been on our side, nor has any cyclones. Hard to buck that 3 year or so winter trend.
The GFS had the storm in the magical 10ish day window. I think it may get back to something close to that.
We shall see. I’m still interested.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2022 12:38:16 GMT -6
GEFS isn’t to excited about snowfall around here  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 7, 2022 12:50:37 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Mar 7, 2022 12:55:48 GMT -6
Yes , today’s models have trended more to 1” or 2” of snow rather than 6”+ they were showing yesterday
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2022 14:23:50 GMT -6
Yes , today’s models have trended more to 1” or 2” of snow rather than 6”+ they were showing yesterday That's going to be the upper limit without an early phase...which is still on the table but looking less likely. |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 7, 2022 14:51:57 GMT -6
Could be nothing actually…
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 7, 2022 15:08:23 GMT -6
Haha. Disco mentions possibiliry of minima right on the 44 corridor.
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 7, 2022 15:31:43 GMT -6
Haha. Disco mentions possibiliry of minima right on the 44 corridor. Looks like they were referring to the GFS scenario and they then said they are not sure they believe that outcome….. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2022 16:09:47 GMT -6
I think most on here would be happy with the 18z GFS
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2022 16:17:33 GMT -6
The Winterset IA tornado the other day was EF-4
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Post by bororug on Mar 7, 2022 16:21:43 GMT -6
I think most on here would be happy with the 18z GFS Yes sir! It’s a beaut! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 7, 2022 16:27:30 GMT -6
GFS is all over the place the last 3 runs
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2022 19:58:22 GMT -6
GFS is all over the place the last 3 runs It randomly selects which ensemble member to follow |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 7, 2022 20:21:40 GMT -6
GFS is all over the place the last 3 runs Thats a big reason why id not believe any of it. After almost earning a spot on my varsity team i think ill pass. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 7, 2022 20:24:46 GMT -6
Haha. Disco mentions possibiliry of minima right on the 44 corridor. Looks like they were referring to the GFS scenario and they then said they are not sure they believe that outcome….. You are right. Its a little early to speak of those kind of details, but it strikes me with a little humor. |
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Post by Farmtown WX on Mar 8, 2022 5:02:50 GMT -6
Oddly quiet in here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 8, 2022 6:38:52 GMT -6
Strong "over it" vibes... |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 8, 2022 6:42:47 GMT -6
Yep, and most models continue to have the snow minimal hole right over the metro, an inch or less falling during the day after a couple warm days . Probably a six window of mood snow if we’re lucky. It’s a very odd set up of a storm
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 8, 2022 6:42:48 GMT -6
GFS shows it then pulls it away ……
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Post by snowjunky on Mar 8, 2022 7:02:09 GMT -6
GFS shows it then pulls it away …… Sounds a lot like LUCY |
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 8, 2022 7:57:12 GMT -6
Starting to look like a chemical application at this point for Friday for residual moisture from melting snow that falls during the day
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 8, 2022 9:19:02 GMT -6
GFS is flatter with more of an over-running setup as opposed to a well defined cyclone.
Hard to buck the winter trend, but if it was to happen, it would have to be with this storm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 8, 2022 10:37:40 GMT -6
Starting to think eastern Kansas through north central Missouri will see a warning level storm (with possibly double digit amounts embedded).
I think the metro has a decent chance at getting the ground covered.
12z Icon is likely the ceiling for the metro and would make a lot of people happy in the southern metro.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 8, 2022 10:46:34 GMT -6
Gem has 1-3” for metro, gfs is more like an inch or less , Ukmet less than an inch
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Post by amstilost on Mar 8, 2022 10:56:09 GMT -6
Seems the storm explodes up the east coast somewhat like March '93 Superstorm, not as quick but a low in the GOM strengthening to a (940) or lower. I think we only got flurries out of that system, but that was a long time ago wrt my memory bank.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 8, 2022 12:31:35 GMT -6
“Ope, let me sneak right by you”  |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 8, 2022 12:52:55 GMT -6
Pretty much… but think that’s why not a lot of interest or excitement, if that’s the outcome you might have an inch on grassy surface at best falling during the day. The sun angle and time of year will eat snow as it falls when it’s borderline like this
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Post by amstilost on Mar 8, 2022 13:21:26 GMT -6
Euro and GFS both have a monster storm by the time it leaves ME. I had to look up the abbr. for Maine. On a search, why is there no answer in the several sentences of each search query. Have to click one one to get an answer.
Edit: Yes, it would have been easier and quicker to just write M-A-I-N-E at that point but it bugged me that the abbreviation didn't just 'roll' off the keyboard.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 8, 2022 13:21:52 GMT -6
Chris’ absence is everything you need to know  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 8, 2022 13:33:36 GMT -6
Looks like we'll be shifting to a almost late Spring weather pattern within about 7 to 9 days with cutoff lows trapped within a a large and broad ridge over the center of the country meaning much above average temperatures outside of the area of influence underneath the lows, but average to below normal temps underneath them with rains, storms, and at least some severe weather. As for the cold snap, its been disappointing, but not surprising for being this late in the season. Might get down to the teens Saturday morning for lows, but looks like it's fast bounce in temperatures after that with 60s, 70s, and a few 80s remaining dominate through the remainder of the month.
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