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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 8, 2022 13:56:44 GMT -6
Chris’ absence is everything you need to know  Meh..not really. He's off this week I think. He's been busy the last several weeks. Much needed time away I think. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 8, 2022 15:00:19 GMT -6
You rang?  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 8, 2022 15:06:21 GMT -6
I am off KTVI this week... and have been over at Scott for the past 5 days. Thankfully... that is now over as well and I'm finally OFF until Monday.
As for Thursday night and Friday... to borrow from snowy.... meh.
It looks like some of the stuff we saw earl early in the season. Im thinking it's briefly light rain showers Thursday night... changing to sleet and freezing drizzle.. then very light snow and flurries... for the vast moajority of the area.
I don't see much accumulation at this stage of the game. Ground temps will be warmer after the next couple of days and the sun angle is getting up there which will help warm the pavement quite a bit Thursday.
Precip intensity does not look impressive at all around here. The forecast profiles are questionable for snow honestly for the entire event in our viewing area.
I'm going with the idea of light rain developing Thursday late evening... chaning to light freezing rain (mainly elevated surfaces) and then sleet with some light snow. Less than 1" accumulation and probably no more than a light coating/dusting. Of course, it will be heading into the Friday morning drive so people will forget how to drive and the rush will become an issue.
In otherwords... meah.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 8, 2022 15:36:23 GMT -6
18z Icon looks great for those south of STL.
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Post by dschreib on Mar 8, 2022 18:25:08 GMT -6
This guy came to visit this afternoon. Left its perch and flew across the back yard around 30-40 feet up, but I was screwing around with the camera and didn't get it in flight.  |
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Post by dschreib on Mar 8, 2022 18:32:45 GMT -6
There are several in the area, with the Kaskaskia and hundreds of strip pit lakes. First time we've had one perched in the back yard, though.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 8, 2022 18:56:53 GMT -6
There are several in the area, with the Kaskaskia and hundreds of strip pit lakes. First time we've had one perched in the back yard, though. Got to watch several pick off our downed and lost snow geese out of the tall rice stubble while hunting in Arkansas...they were eating well. No waste! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 8, 2022 19:29:42 GMT -6
There are several in the area, with the Kaskaskia and hundreds of strip pit lakes. First time we've had one perched in the back yard, though. Saw bunches of them when we visited Alaska. Wife described them as common as robins are here. The eagles are so beautiful and so amazing. So glad we didn't get Ben Franklin's choice for national bird. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 8, 2022 19:40:03 GMT -6
The 18z GEFS and EPS did look marginally better for Friday with a slightly slower and stronger system.
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Post by bear1 on Mar 8, 2022 20:18:18 GMT -6
Could some one tell me if that is virga showing on the radars in SW Mo.??
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 8, 2022 20:32:14 GMT -6
The 18z GEFS and EPS did look marginally better for Friday with a slightly slower and stronger system. Models are trying to get that phase going relatively close to us...but don't really bring it together until it's well off to the East. It's got a long ways to go and only about 48hrs from the onset. At this juncture, I'm thinking 1-2" may be a stretch and we may not even get the ground covered. The Fgen really falls flat on it's face as it shifts east if you believe the models...and it usually does in these setups. |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 8, 2022 20:43:11 GMT -6
NAM is a little steeper as it begins to phase- holds onto the northern fgen thru the metro and brings
a bit of sleet then a couple hours of decent snow
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 8, 2022 23:08:46 GMT -6
Runs tonight suggest we may have an advisory type event Friday
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 8, 2022 23:18:53 GMT -6
Yea we are around 2 inches down this way …. Sadly that would be the 2nd biggest snow of the year here lol
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 9, 2022 4:06:12 GMT -6
This morning’s GFS looks better…. A couple of inches for the metro
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 9, 2022 9:16:39 GMT -6
12z runs are at least starting off showing a nice snow all day Friday. Not that it's going to add up to much.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 9, 2022 9:56:03 GMT -6
My forecast from the NWS is for 1-3 inches …. I found that interesting
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 9, 2022 10:03:06 GMT -6
If it can start early enough in the morning with temps in the mid or upper 20s it could actually add up to something
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 9, 2022 10:08:45 GMT -6
RAP brings heavier snow into N areas tomorrow afternoon for a quick hit.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Mar 9, 2022 10:50:31 GMT -6
RAP brings heavier snow into N areas tomorrow afternoon for a quick hit. How far north? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2022 10:51:02 GMT -6
Using positive snow depth change, the GEFS is showing 30%-40% chance of an inch of snow in the metro.  |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Mar 9, 2022 11:16:38 GMT -6
The NWS has seriously decreased our totals up here. Still glad I do not have to drive in the crap. I got through my surgery ok. Came home yesterday and slept, a lot. No nausea, thank biscuits. Just have the burning pain from my ankle, hoping that eases soon. 2 screws to reattach the bone, and I get to stay off of it for 2 more weeks. Joy.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2022 11:46:27 GMT -6
Cobb data from the 12z NAM and GFS has alittle over 2" in STL  |
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Post by jeepers on Mar 9, 2022 14:28:26 GMT -6
Glad all went well labrat. Now the real healing can begin. 💐
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Post by REB on Mar 9, 2022 15:44:56 GMT -6
Labrat,
Glad the surgery went well. I hope you heal quickly.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 9, 2022 16:13:01 GMT -6
be nice if the 18z gfs was right...
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Post by landscaper on Mar 9, 2022 16:18:08 GMT -6
What’s it showing
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 9, 2022 16:25:31 GMT -6
snow
2-5 inches from east to west
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 9, 2022 17:49:36 GMT -6
I can't believe the nam and gfs are correct in depicting that wide and strong of an event with that kind of orientation would be a pretty amazing
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 9, 2022 18:01:03 GMT -6
NAM HIRES. 18z at Belleville Friday around 11AM.  |
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